Here's what the latest 2018 Cabinet reshuffle tells us about the 3 PM frontrunners

Still a three-horse race?

Martino Tan | April 25, 2018, 02:29 PM

Following the cabinet reshuffle yesterday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that he had "made many changes to Cabinet and other political appointments today" and that "this year’s reshuffle is more extensive than usual".

This was indeed the case, with 4G leaders now running 10 of the 16 ministries.

Here are more statistics on the reshuffle:

The average age of the new cabinet will fall from 56 to 55.

And it will be a slightly smaller 19-member Cabinet, down from 21.

Here are three observations concerning the three PM front-runners.

1. Chan Chun Sing attained the portfolio that will make him the most well-rounded candidate.

Screenshot from WEF.

It was one of the worst-kept secrets.

Sources quoted in several media outlets had already predicted as early as two weeks ago that Chan will return from NTUC and be appointed as the Minister for Trade and Industry.

They were, of course, right.

Chan is now taking over Ministers Lim Hng Kiang (who oversaw Trade) and S Iswaran (who was in charge of Industry).

More importantly, Chan will possess the experience of helming a ministry that provides a macro view of the Singapore economy and international economic issues.

Among the three 4G PM frontrunners, Chan is the only leader who has managed social issues (as Acting Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports, and Minister of Social and Family Development), security issues (as Second Minister for Defence), and economic issues (as Labour Chief and now Minister for Trade and Industry).

And perhaps even more crucially, Chan will now additionally oversee the public service, taking over Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean.

Meanwhile, we note that Chan continues to be the Deputy Chairman of the People's Association, an organisation with the ability to mobilise a good number of Singaporeans.

He also displayed political savviness in retaining the services of veteran MTI Minister Lim Hng Kiang. He indicated that he was glad that Lim accepted Chan’s invitation to stay on as a special adviser.

We also note that Minister Iswaran, who will now be heading up the Ministry of Communications and Information, will still be Minister-in-charge of Trade Relations — so to some extent, Chan will also benefit from his experience.

[related_story]

2. Ong Ye Kung is the 4G leader heading the largest ministry.

Ong was the first 4G frontrunner to be interviewed by the mainstream media after the reshuffle was announced on Tuesday.

Perhaps Ong was easily contactable, as he was on a working trip to Hong Kong and Shenzhen (April 22 to 27). Such trips are usually accompanied by journalists. The interview displayed his natural confidence with the media.

The Ministry of Education (MOE) has the third largest budget (S$12.84 billion), after Defence (S$14.76 billion) and Transport (S$13.71 billion).

Both Defence and Transport are helmed by 3G Ministers Ng Eng Hen and Khaw Boon Wan, so Ong is the 4G leader helming the Ministry with the largest budget.

This will be the first heavyweight ministry solely helmed by Ong. Like Chan, Ong is now leading a ministry that was just prior led by two ministers — albeit junior, in the case of MOE.

Ong now has the experience of managing social issues (as Education Minister) and security (as Second Minister for Defence). While Ong possessed previous experience with the unions as the Deputy Secretary-General (like Ng Chee Meng and Koh Poh Koon now are), it wasn't a political appointment.

So we note that Ong still lacks the experience of helming an economic ministry as a minister.

As Lianhe Zaobao pointed out, Ong has a disadvantage among the three for lacking Ministry experience (helming them, anyway) apart from with the MOE.

However, Ong is not unfamiliar with economic issues as he is one of the Board of Directors at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS). Ong’s MAS appointment is from Aug 29, 2016 to May 31, 2019.

4G leader Heng Swee Keat is also an MAS board member, and previously headed it too.

3. Heng. Status quo.

Source: Gov.sg Youtube.

What about Heng?

Judging from the ST homepage yesterday, he received the least prominence out of the three frontrunners in the cabinet reshuffle:

Screenshot of ST website.

That, to be fair, is because Heng did not experience any change in portfolio, though he will be taking over in assisting PM Lee on National Research Foundation matters from DPM Teo Chee Hean.

In his Facebook post, Heng says his focus is on the new leadership team.

He concluded that the younger leaders must continue to “build our collective strengths as one team”, and to learn and benefit from the guidance of PM and the DPMs:

As the most senior 4G leader, Heng may well be the man to bring the whole 4G team together to choose the next PM.

Our coverage on the 2018 Cabinet reshuffle:

Meet your 4 brand-new political office holders in the 2018 Cabinet reshuffle

2018 Cabinet reshuffle is a win for women, with a historic 3 female full ministers

Bye, bye: Lim Swee Say, Yaacob Ibrahim & Lim Hng Kiang retire from Cabinet

Only 3 ministries have new ministers in charge, far fewer than past reshuffles

S’pore Cabinet reshuffle 2018 in full at a glance

Everything you need to know about the 2018 S’pore Cabinet reshuffle in 60 seconds

Top photo: screenshot from Mothership video