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As little as four years ago, it would have taken a really confident person to predict that Lawrence Wong will (in all probability) become Singapore's fourth prime minister.

But while glowing tributes pour in on social media, it's remarkable how far Wong appeared to be from the top job at one point in time.

Cast your mind back to 2018. No one knows what a "Covid" is, and Donald Trump is still the U.S. President.

Until 2021, Wong flew under the radar during the frequent media speculation over the identity of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's successor.

Even an old Mothership analysis (yes, us too), didn't mention Wong one way or another following a comment PM Lee made on the succession in Jan. 2018.

Party conference

In November of that year, the PAP held its party conference and the election of the Central Executive Committee (CEC), the party's highest decision-making body.

When the dust had settled, current Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Heng Swee Keat and Education Minister Chan Chun Sing emerged as 1st Assistant Secretary-General and 2nd Assistant Secretary-General, respectively.

It was clear (as it seemed at the time) who the PM-in-waiting was.

Here's what PM Lee said about the election at the time:

"The election of the new CEC is a major step forward in our political renewal. The younger ministers and political office holders have been meeting in recent months to discuss who should lead them. They have reached a consensus that Heng Swee Keat will be their leader.

In turn, Heng Swee Keat has asked Chan Chun Sing to be his number two. Chun Sing has agreed, and the younger team has endorsed Swee Keat’s decision. It was therefore natural for the CEC to elect the two of them as 1st and 2nd Assistant Secretaries General."

The CEC also elected a bunch of 3G and 4G leaders to various roles.

For example, Trade & Industry Gan Kim Yong became the party chairman, taking over from former Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan.

Within their press release, one interesting nugget of information emerged.

"The 35th PAP Central Executive Committee (CEC) met on 23 Nov 2018 and co-opted four additional members – Comrades Lawrence Wong, Desmond Lee, Sitoh Yih Pin and Christopher de Souza."

This meant that Wong either wasn't considered in the 2018 CEC list of 19 leaders nominated or did not receive enough votes from the PAP cadres to be directly elected to the CEC as one of the top 12 vote-getters.

Co-opted into the CEC

So Wong was co-opted as part of the "four additional members" on Nov. 23, 2018.

On the other hand, members like Josephine Teo (Minister for Communications & Information) and Ng Eng Hen (Minister for Defence) were co-opted on Nov. 11, ahead of Wong.

This was Wong's first time in the CEC.

Back in 2017, Wong wasn't a member, even though he was already Minister for National Development and Second Minister for Finance by then.

And check out this photo shared on Heng's Facebook post on Nov. 23, 2018.

While almost certainly not intentional, Wong's placement at one end of the row pointed to his position as a party leader in 2018 - a newly minted CEC member and not yet an appointment holder like Heng Swee Keat (1ASG), Chan Chun Sing (2ASG) and Ong Ye Kung (Asst Treasurer).

So, what changed?

Covid happened

In years to come, future historians may very well give a one-word answer for Wong's rise to the summit.

Well, one acronym, a dash and a number. Covid-19. But that would only be scratching the surface of the story.

Unprecedented in scale, unlike any other challenge Singapore had ever faced, Covid changed many things, and it may also have changed the trajectory of the leadership race.

2019 had been something of a quiet year for Wong.

In fact, Singaporeans might have been more familiar with the actor who shares his name.

One of his Facebook videos about HDB flats in July 2019 barely garnered 2,500 views.

But after Covid emerged at the tail-end of 2019, the government decided to set up a Multi-Ministry Task Force (MTF) to tackle the crisis.

Co-chair of the MTF

Then came the decision that put Wong at the forefront of the Covid-19 battle.

Then-Health Minister Gan Kim Yong nominated Wong as "someone he could work well with" to be his fellow co-chair, according to The Straits Times.

Gan discussed with Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean, who took his request to DPM Heng, who was the acting PM while PM Lee was away.

Heng agreed that Wong would be able to help Gan.

Heng proceeded to call Wong to inform him about his role.

It was a bit of an eyebrow-raiser, as Wong was handling two portfolios and his main one in the Ministry of National Development was not the first thing people would think of in conjunction with a pandemic.

In his interview with ST's book In This Together: Singapore's Covid-19 Story, Wong said that he told Heng he'll be "happy to support" and do his best, adding that it was not something that would naturally fit into his portfolios at the time.

PM Lee also noted during his remarks at the April 2021 Cabinet Reshuffle that Wong was appointed as MTF co-chair not on the basis of his "previous appointment" (i.e. ministry), but on the "basis personal to him".

And the two most senior PAP 4G leaders and their involvement in Covid-19 battle?

Heng was appointed an advisor to the MTF, with Chan as one of its members.

As the Finance Minister, Heng would have his hands full with the Budget and other emergency financial measures to keep households and businesses afloat as Covid-19 ravaged the country.

Heng would end up preparing an unprecedented five Budgets in one year, close to $100 billion in support measures, with up to $53.7 billion drawn from past reserves.

Chan, as the Trade and Industry Minister, had to get the economy going and cope with the lack of supplies of masks and other essential items.

As PM Lee noted in the 2021 cabinet reshuffle remarks, "Chun Sing has done an excellent job getting our economy back on track, and preparing our industries and companies to respond to structural changes in the global economy". 

On Jan. 27, 2020, Wong made one of his first speeches as MTF co-chair.

As one of the faces of the MTF, Wong would quickly become familiar to Singaporeans hungry for news of developments during the pandemic.

In March 2020, Wong was overcome with emotion while delivering a Ministerial Statement in Parliament.

As Mothership reported at the time:

"Wong's display of emotion came after he commended the "national effort" undertaken by healthcare workers on the frontline, public officials, "unsung heroes" like cleaners, F&B workers, transport workers and others providing essential services, as well as ordinary volunteers who have stepped up to help the needy.

Wong said: "Mr Speaker, words are not sufficient to express our appreciation for all of those who are..."

He then paused his speech, apparently overcome by emotion as the rest of the MPs in Parliament gave Wong a round of applause.

After taking some time to compose himself, Wong finished his sentence:

"Words are not sufficient to express our appreciation for so many Singaporeans going all out to fight the virus. And I just want to say a big thank you to everyone who's doing their part.""

The emotional moment, which quickly went viral, enhanced Wong's growing notability among the public. But 2020 wasn't just the Year of the Pandemic.

It was also an Election Year.

GE2020

Heading into GE2020, Wong would be the sole "anchor minister" for Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC.

A fairly new GRC (founded before GE2015), this would only be Wong's second time competing in Marsiling-Yew Tee, having been elected in 2011 in West Coast GRC.

The anchor minister

In 2015, Wong co-led the GRC with his teammate Halimah Yacob (then-Speaker of Parliament) and won 68.7 per cent of the vote against the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP).

Wong subsequently saw Halimah leave to become Singapore's President. There was no by-election, so there were about three years where Wong led without a full complement of MPs.

Wong was chosen as part of a group delivering nationally-broadcast updates to the nation on the Covid-19 situation before the election, a sign of his growing stature.

Marsiling-Yew Tee would again be contested by a team from the SDP.

Wong did not shy away from the rough-and-tumble of an election campaign, strongly refuting "baseless and false allegations" made by SDP's Paul Tambyah.

When the votes were tallied up, Wong's team won with a smaller margin, 63.18 per cent. But the total number of votes cast for the PAP actually increased by more than a thousand.

Moreover, the results were above PAP's national average score of 61.23 per cent.

The other contenders

And what of the others?

Heng was a surprise move, switching from Tampines to East Coast, hotly contested by a strong Workers' Party team which included Nicole Seah.

On one hand, Heng and his team managed to keep East Coast in the PAP's hands.

On the other, their winning vote share of 53.41 per cent was one of the lowest of GE2020.

Ong Ye Kung arguably did better, although his Sembawang GRC vote share dropped from 72.28 to 67.29 per cent, and the votes cast also dropped by about 2,600.

Meanwhile, Chan's Tanjong Pagar GRC saw a sharper drop in vote share from 77.71 to 63.1 per cent, and a drop in votes cast of about 12,000.

At the end of the campaign, it was Wong who was chosen to deliver the party's post-GE briefing to the media.

He emphasised that the PAP's base, the working and middle classes, kept faith with the party, and that the PAP's policies "must always tilt in favour of the less fortunate and vulnerable."

Direct election to the CEC

In July 2020, shortly after the election, PM Lee reshuffled his Cabinet.

Wong gave up his National Development portfolio and was made Minister for Education, while still remaining Second Finance Minister. He remained as co-chair of the MTF.

A political observer felt it portended momentous things to come.

And in November 2020, the PAP held another CEC election.

This time, Wong was directly elected to the CEC for the first time, without needing to be co-opted.

As Mothership noted at the time, "Wong and (Desmond) Lee's direct election to the CEC, edging out Ministers Josephine Teo and Indranee Rajah, signified that both ministers have good support within the party."

Heng takes himself out of the running

Come 2021, the game board would be overturned once more.

First in April 2021, Heng shocked the nation by announcing he would be "stepping aside" as the leader of the 4G group and relinquishing his finance ministry portfolio.

Heng was no longer the PM-in-waiting.

A month later came another Cabinet Reshuffle. Wong's short tenure as Education Minister came to an end, and he would helm the finance ministry.

PM Lee said that Wong had been assisting Heng Swee Keat since 2016, and is a "natural fit" for the job.

One of the most important portfolios in the Cabinet, this gave Wong responsibility for preparing the Budget and allocating resources to every other ministry.

Wong is in illustrious company.

The distinguished group of Singapore Finance Minister alumni include a President (Tony Tan), a PM (Lee Hsien Loong) and five DPMs (Lee, Goh Keng Swee, Tan, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Heng Swee Keat).

Parliamentary duties

Wong would deliver Ministerial Statements on financial support measures in July 2021, and table a Parliamentary motion in Sep. 2021 on securing Singaporeans' jobs and livelihoods.

The latter, which took place after PSP's Leong Mun Wai spoke on a motion about Singapore's foreign talent policy, saw Wong strongly criticise the PSP's motion as having "strong racist and xenophobic undertones."

It was perhaps yet another sign demonstrating Wong's growing stature, as a prime minister must not only be able to win over voters at the ballot box, but also confront the opposition in Parliament over key issues.

Addressing tribalism

In Nov. 2021, Wong turned his attention to another arena.

In a significant speech at the IPS-RSIS Conference on Identity, Wong addressed the thorny issue of identity politics and tribalism.

While he stressed that culture wars such as those seen in America should not be allowed to take root in Singapore, he also acknowledged that "different segments of our population will have their own real and valid concerns and anxieties."

Specifically, Wong brought up how women, people with disabilities and the LGBTQ community have "important concerns", which includes them feeling like they are not part of or accepted in Singapore society. He said that these concerns should not be dismissed as "illegitimate or exaggerated".

Such issues may be the ones that the younger generation of Singaporeans -- and voters -- are concerned about, and Wong was laying out the government's stance.

Media interviews

Another sign of Wong's ascendance: His growing role as a spokesperson for Singapore.

Wong granted interviews to foreign media on several occasions in the past year:

• In Jun. 2021, on Singapore's response to the pandemic, economic recovery, as well as the government's views on climate change, cryptocurrency, and Singapore's greying population, speaking to CNBC.
• In Aug. 2021, on Singapore's reopening, speaking to the BBC.
• In Sep. 2021, on what it would mean for Singapore to treat Covid-19 as endemic, speaking to Bloomberg.
• In Feb. 2022, on Budget 2022, speaking to CNBC.

You might also have noticed Wong's increasing media savviness in the way he embraced getting memed.

In Jun. 2021, Wong gamely shared that he "had a good laugh" over a now-prescient meme of him getting "arrowed" to answer a question during a MTF press conference, while acknowledging the contributions of his fellow co-chairs.

Last month, Wong acknowledged "interest" in how he counted with his fingers, but pointed attention back to his speech instead.

No choice made as of Feb. 2022

In the midst of all these indications of Wong's growing stature, as of Feb. 2022 there was still no clarity — even among senior PAP members — as to who the 4G leader would be, at least in public.

Four-term PAP Member of Parliament (MP) Christopher de Souza was so moved by this state of affairs that he rose to speak about leadership succession amid the Budget debate in Parliament.

Choice of an 'overwhelming majority'

Of course, we now know that former PAP chairman Khaw Boon Wan went around individually interviewing 19 "stakeholders" over the course of three weeks, following the Budget 2022 and Committee of Supply Debates.

All of the above set the stage for Wong to be named the new leader of the 4G earlier this month.

And, as PM Lee said, Wong will be the next Prime Minister if PAP wins the next general election.

Article images via Lawrence Wong on Instagram and Facebook, MCI on YouTube, as well as Prime Minister's Office, Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC and Heng Swee Keat on Facebook

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