2018 will be a significant year for local politics.

The parliament prorogue in March will usher in a fresh government legislative programme when the house reconvenes in a month's time.

We can also expect a new round of cabinet reshuffle that will most likely reveal who has a higher chance to become the next Prime Minister.

Renewal of PAP

All these signs point to PAP renewal gathering pace as its 4G leadership continues to take shape and the gearing up for the next General Election, which is due by April 2021.

For the ruling party, the selection of potential candidates is a key aspect of the necessary preparation work before the next GE.

According to The Straits Times, PAP organising secretary Gan Kim Yong, who is also Health Minister, is leading the effort to spot political talent.

Together with Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat (yes, it's him again) and Senior Minister of State for Trade and Industry and Culture, Community and Youth, Sim Ann, they will oversee the search for a new batch of MPs that can help the party represent and stay connected with a new generation of Singaporeans.

Different types of PAP MPs

The PAP replaces about a quarter of its slate in every GE.

In the last three elections led by PM Lee Hsien Loong, it fielded 26 new faces in 2006, and 24 each in 2011 and 2015.

Nothing is left to chance in this exercise. Even after the party finalises its slate, a reserve list is drawn up for contingencies. (Just ask Tanjong Pagar GRC MP Chia Shi Lu who became an MP overnight in 2011.)

[related_story]

Over the years, the PAP has consistently fielded candidates who are identifiable in more or less neat categories.

Political scientist Chan Heng Chee classified the roles of Singapore MPs into four types in a 1976 academic article :

• the technocrat whose main contribution would be his expertise in "initiating, modifying and facilitating physical, economic and social planning policies";
• the mobiliser who is the link between the masses and the government;
• the Malay vote-getter
• the Chinese-educated intellectual which have symbolic appeal in multiracial Singapore.

Though the profile of PAP candidates have evolved over time, the connections to the past are still discernible whenever a new batch of candidates emerge.

There will always be the high-flying scholar-technocrats and high-ranking military officers, long-serving grassroots or party volunteers and labour movement representatives.

The composition of the overall slate will also take into account other factors such as age, gender and race.

The search for Ministers with diverse backgrounds

"Ministerial or political-office holder potential".

That's the term usually used by PAP leaders as an endorsement of a new heavyweight candidate. More often than not in recent times, it is applied to senior civil servants or military commanders who have left their jobs to enter politics.

The potential impact of homogeneity at the top is not lost on experienced political leaders like Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong.

In August 2017, he called for the building of "a stronger and more inclusive millennial generation team".

"The fourth generation (4G) leaders will have to quickly establish themselves as a cohesive team and identify the captain amongst them"

"They must try their utmost to bring in potential office-holders from outside the Singapore Armed Forces and public sector to avoid group-think. Highly competent Singaporeans outside the Government must also be prepared to step up and serve."

His comments reflected a strong desire by the PAP leadership to look for candidates with diverse backgrounds who can go on to become a core member of the leadership in the cabinet.

Its efforts have so far been met with little success.

The majority of cabinet ministers have long records of working in the public sector.

Among the 11 PAP new candidates from the last three elections who were promoted to become cabinet ministers, only Grace Fu and Masagos Zulkifli had private sector experience before they joined politics.

Goh's comments also hinted that the challenge was more about the reluctance on the part of potential private-sector candidates, rather than a conservative PAP that is over-reliant on public sector talent.

Speaking on the topic of Ministerial Salaries in Parliament in Jan 2012, PM Lee said this about Ministers with private sector background:

"I wish I could find more of them. I have not succeeded, I did not find it easy and I will not find it easy either." (emphasis ours)

In the first place, when it comes to candidates with Ministerial potential, the pool is very limited. As what PM Lee said:

"Therefore, you are not talking about huge numbers of people, you are talking about a few dozen possibilities in Singapore, finally when they boil it down in each election, we have never brought in more than six or seven. "(emphasis ours)

Three tiers of Ministers

Will PAP be able to attract and convince more high-calibre private sector candidates to take the plunge into politics?

Singaporeans will certainly be looking out for answers. But more importantly, it will determine whether Singapore's 4G leadership has sufficient diversity in terms of experience and political instincts to navigate an increasingly uncertain world.

Until then, PM Lee will push on in his journey to build a strong leadership team.

In the same January 2012 speech to Parliament, he described a strong team "in the steady state" as one that comprise three tiers of Ministers in Cabinet:

• Newer ministers who are being developed for heavier responsibilities in future
• More experienced ministers overseeing major ministries or areas of work
• Senior ministers who help PM coordinate more than one Ministry and oversee whole-of-government issues

It will be useful to keep this in mind as we observe the new cabinet lineup after the next round of reshuffle.

Top photo from PM Lee's Facebook