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With the return of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan soon after the United States' withdrawal, authorities in this region, including Singapore, would need to be vigilant.

That's what Senior Analyst Jasminder Singh from S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) said while speaking to Mothership on the implications of the Taliban's swift, but not unprecedented, return to power.

He added that since the regional landscape would shape the security environment and nature of the threats, authorities need to assess the effects of Taliban on regional extremist networks.

"With this in mind, the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) would be a reminder from the past," he cautioned.

A spokesperson from Singapore's Internal Security Department (ISD) told The Straits Times that while there is no specific terrorist threat to Singapore relating to the Taliban situation at the moment, the ongoing efforts are still of concern.

Resurgence of political Islam in SEA

Singh also said that with the return of Taliban, some Islamist groups in Southeast Asia might be encouraged to follow their suit.

He shared an example of Jamaah Ansharu Syariah (JAS), led by Abdul Rochim Ba'asyir, who's the son of former JI leader Abu Bakar Ba'asyir.

In a statement, JAS has expressed support and optimism for the Taliban.

The extremist group added that the Taliban would be an example for Muslims globally to follow as it complies with a complete establishment of sharia law.

Nearer to home, Malaysia's conservative Islamist political party, Pan-Islamic Party (PAS), had also congratulated the people of Afghanistan, and more specifically, the Taliban-led government on its victory.

The statement was deleted by Facebook and Twitter due to violations of community standards.

A shot in the arm for Al-Qaeda groups

Mothership also spoke to Abdul Basit, an Associate Research Fellow at RSIS on the implications of Taliban's return on geopolitical relations in Asia and the Middle East.

He shared that for Southeast Asia, there is a distinction between groups that are affiliated to Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State (IS).

"For the pro-Al-Qaeda groups, this is jubilation, but for the pro-IS group, this is bad news," he said.

This is because Al-Qaeda is affiliated with the Taliban, in addition to being an enemy of the IS. Taliban's gains would mean the diminishing of IS' influence and the reduction of areas they can encroach on.

However, Abdul Basit said that the situation we are seeing right now is different from the 1990s.

While the Taliban's victory rejuvenates pro-Al-Qaeda groups in Southeast Asia, he doubted that the group will bring its followers back to Afghanistan.

According to him, Al-Qaeda "has evolved" and has engaged in "glocalisation" efforts.

He highlighted that rather than going back to Afghanistan to fight in their Jihad (struggle), they will be more likely to carry out lone-wolf attacks in the region.

Amidst his doubts, Abdul Basit cautioned against making predictions too far into the future as the situation is still premature and continues to evolve.

China only cares about Afghanistan, not who rules it

Moving away from Southeast Asia, China has been warming up with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Abdul Basit opined that this is because China is concerned with spreading its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Central Asia.

"It does not matter who rules Afghanistan. What is important to China is Afghanistan. What is not very important to China is who rules it," he shared.

"China's move in Afghanistan is to have a stable relations with whoever is ruling the country," he added

With the U.S. no longer having a presence in Afghanistan, and switching its focus to Asia Pacific, Abdul Basit said that there is a power vacuum left in the wake of the American occupation, which China and Russia might try to fill.

The Middle East has a source of energy which China needs, and they in turn have a large market for Chinese weapons, as well as the financial means to purchase them.

Middle East: Everyone wants a piece of Taliban

When asked about the shift in power relations between Afghanistan and the Middle Eastern nations, Abdul Basit said for any country to claim to be the leader of the Muslim world, they need to first have an influence over Pakistan, which is the only Muslim country with nuclear capabilities.

They have to command influence in Afghanistan as well as "what happens in Afghanistan affects everybody".

He noted that prior to this, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Pakistan all recognised the Taliban regime.

However, as of now, Saudi Arabia and the UAE  have been "missing in action", and no longer are the big players in Afghanistan.

In fact, Saudi Arabia has closed its embassy in Afghanistan after the Taliban took over, he said.

As Pakistan continues its role in Afghanistan, Abdul Basit noted that Qatar has been stepping up its influence in the country while Saudi and UAE remain silent.

However, Saudi Arabia now wants to be back in the game and to play an influential role with the Taliban as Saudi Arabia and Turkey compete to be the leader of the Muslim world.

As for Iran, he shared that the theocratic country has been making inroads with the Taliban.

"Iran has helped Afghanistan against the U.S. Iran has also guaranteed the protection of Shiites in Afghanistan. Hence I would say that Iran and the Taliban are buddies," he opined.

The situation is a bit more complicated with the UAE, however.

Abdul Basit shared that the UAE has been cosying up with Israel, which the Taliban dislikes.

However, as the UAE would want to make inroads with the Taliban, they would need to find a balance to appease the different parties.

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Top image by VOA via PTV