The consequences of the strategic choices made by Washington and Beijing will shape the emerging global order, and determine whether humanity makes progress on global problems, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong wrote in an essay, "The Endangered Asian Century", in the U.S. magazine Foreign Affairs.

In his first ever op-ed for the reputable international relations magazine, PM Lee said the two global superpowers face fundamental choices that will lead to cooperation and healthy competition, or confrontation and poisonous rivalry.

"It is natural for big powers to compete. But it is their capacity for cooperation that is the true test of statecraft, and it will determine whether humanity makes progress on global problems such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, and the spread of infectious diseases," said PM Lee.

First ever op-ed the most read article

PM Lee's 4,200-word op-ed, which was reported by Bloomberg, was the most-read article in the Foreign Affairs website on June 4.

A Singaporean politician of comparable heft last appeared in the Foreign Affairs magazine some 26 years ago.

In 1994, the late Lee Kuan Yew was interviewed by then Foreign Affairs managing editor and now CNN host Fareed Zakaria on the global debate over Asian values and the Asian-styled governance ("Culture Is Destiny: A Conversation with Lee Kuan Yew").

This time, the debate between the competing types of governance is more existential.

PM Lee's op-ed can also be seen as an extension of his widely discussed 2019 keynote speech at the top-level regional security forum, Shangri-La Dialogue.

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the annual Shangri-La Dialogue was called off for the first time since it was launched in 2002.

And PM Lee's updated views on U.S.-Sino relations could well be what he would have delivered if the security forum wasn't cancelled.

In his essay, PM Lee charted out:

i) the history of the two phases of global peace in the 21st century, backed by U.S. dominance (Pax Americana);

ii) the fundamental choices faced by the United States and China today;

iii) how these choices by the two global superpowers will affect the dynamics in the Asia-Pacific; and

iv) the need for an inclusive regional architecture such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Fundamental choices by both U.S. and China

On the U.S.: PM Lee said that the U.S. must decide whether to view China’s rise as an existential threat or to accept China as a major power in its own right.

How co-operation will play out: He said that the U.S. is likely to find the approach of cooperation and healthy competition within an agreed multilateral framework of rules and norms "a painful adjustment".

This is because there is a growing consensus in Washington that engaging Beijing has failed and that a tougher approach is necessary to preserve U.S. interests.

However, PM Lee believes that it is worth U.S. making a serious effort to accommodate China’s aspirations within the current system of international rules and norms as the system imposes responsibilities and restraints on all countries.

How confrontation will play out: If the U.S. chooses to try to contain China’s rise, it will risk provoking a reaction that could set the two countries on a path to decades of confrontation.

Any confrontation between these two is unlikely to end as the Cold War did, in one country’s peaceful collapse.

On China: China must decide whether to become an unencumbered major power, or accept that the world now has higher expectations of it.

How going it alone will play out: China may prevail by its sheer weight and economic strength, but at the risk of strong pushback from the U.S. and other countries. This approach is likely to increase tensions and resentment, which would affect China’s standing and influence in the longer term.

How accepting the world's higher expectations will play out: China could acknowledge that it is no longer poor and weak.

A larger and more powerful China should not only respect global rules and norms but also take on greater responsibility for upholding and updating the international order.

PM Lee warned that it cannot be taken for granted that the U.S. and China will manage their bilateral relations based on rational calculations of their national interests or even share a desire for win-win outcomes.

How these choices affect the dynamics in the Asia-Pacific

The U.S. security presence remains vital to the Asia-Pacific region, PM Lee said.

And PM Lee noted that China would be unable to take over the U.S.'s security role despite its increasing military strength.

This is because China has competing maritime and territorial claims in the South China Sea with several countries in the region, which will always see China’s naval presence as an attempt to advance those claims.

Another obstacle stems from the significant ethnic Chinese minorities in Southeast Asian nations, whose relations with the non-Chinese majority are often delicate, PM Lee added.

He said that these countries would be sensitive of perceptions of China having an inordinate influence over their ethnic Chinese populations.

PM Lee noted that Singapore is the only Southeast Asian country whose multiracial population is majority ethnic Chinese.

PM Lee observed that China’s sheer size has made it the largest trading partner of most other Asian countries, including every treaty ally of the United States in the region, as well as Singapore and nearly every other ASEAN country.

Hence, Singapore and all other Asian countries want to cultivate good relations with China, and do not wish to be forced to choose sides.

PM Lee's hope

In his conclusion, PM Lee said that the Covid-19 pandemic is a stark reminder of how vital it is for countries to work together.

PM Lee said that the pandemic is unfortunately "exacerbating the U.S.-Chinese rivalry, increasing mistrust, one-upmanship, and mutual blame".

PM Lee concluded that Asian countries' success -- and the prospect of an Asian century -- will depend greatly on whether the U.S. and China can overcome their differences, build mutual trust, and work constructively to uphold a stable and peaceful international order.

Top photo from Mikhail Metzel\TASS via Getty Images.