Mahathir struggles as M'sia economy slows 1 year after Pakatan Harapan win

Malaysians do not feel their lives have become better.

Belmont Lay | May 09, 2019, 07:46 PM

Malaysia is not in a good place.

At least not as good as what many Malaysians expected when they voted for regime change on May 9, 2018, exactly one year ago.

One-year anniversary

The not-that-good verdict is by Nikkei Asian Review, a venerable weekly business journal in Japan.

In a May 8 article that took stock of the first-year anniversary of regime change in Malaysia -- the first since Malaysia gained independence in 1957 -- the diagnosis is not positive.

The significance of a Japanese media weighing in is that it is neither Singaporean nor Malaysian, which makes it more neutral.

Euphoria over

Nikkei's take is that euphoria has died down and reality is setting in.

The government led by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is dealing with slowing economic growth.

Consumption down in Malaysia

The country's consumer sentiment index dropped for the third quarter in a row in the January-March period, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research data showed.

A weakening in private consumption growth in the coming months is bad news.

The Malaysian economy is driven by consumption.

A weakening in consumer sentiment reduces gross domestic product.

Approval rating down

Moreover, Mahathir's approval rating has plummeted to 46 percent.

It was at an all-time high of 83 percent last May, according to a poll by independent research firm Merdeka Center.

The poll also showed that more people now were unhappy with his government's economic management (52 percent) than those satisfied (40 percent).

This is the first time such sentiments have been registered since Mahathir took office.

Second wind

The 93-year-old Mahathir emerged from retirement and returned to front-line politics spurred on by public discontent with the corrupt government led by Najib Razak.

He led opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope) to a historic election victory.

Effectively, he signed up for this.

He of all people should have known that steering the economy around in a short period of time would be nigh impossible.

But not for the lack of trying.

Short-term measures

The new government set to work tackling the source of the corruption, arresting and charging Najib and other figures involved in 1Malaysia Development Berhad.

Najib's trial started in April.

But bread and butter issues dominate and life did not get better for many Malaysians on other fronts even with regime change.

The new government could neither pull off improvements in such a short time, nor reverse the situation that has been entrenched -- a status quo and facets of Malaysian life that stemmed from beyond the past administration.

Manifesto pledges fulfilled

PH has managed to fulfil some of what it claimed it would set out to do, with 29 of 192 promises in the manifesto on track or had already been achieved so far.

The government abolished GST and improved transparency in its finances.

Structural reforms to lower prices have not been implemented though.

Reduction in cost of living is to focus on short term measures, such as subsidies and price control.

Not all effective

Some of the government's policies are detrimental for the economy.

Abolishing GST and replacing it with a new sales and services tax created a revenue shortfall of some 20 billion ringgit (S$6.6 billion).

It is also making steady deficit reduction difficult to implement.

The government's debt burden will rise to 56 percent of GDP this year, higher than 50.7 percent in 2017.

Other surrounding countries' median stand at 38 percent.

Malaysia's trade-reliant economy whose exports-to-GDP ratio stood at 71 percent in 2017 is getting battered by America's trade war with China.

There is a fall in Malaysian exports in February and March from a year ago.

Kuala Lumpur's benchmark composite stock index has fallen 3 percent year-to-date.

It is the worst performing major market in the world, when other Asian stock indexes were rising.

The Malaysian ringgit has remained weak at round 4.1 to the dollar since early April.

On May 7, the Bank Negara Malaysia lowered the policy rate for the first time in nearly three years, citing "downside risks" to growth.

Najib has taken swings at the current government on social media, calling out its faults with economy management.

Coalition not united

Mahathir's coalition government comprising many parties has been labelled incoherent and at ideological odds with one another and with the electorate.

The ruling coalition could undermine policy effectiveness with the ideologies of the parties not entirely aligned.

Call for unity

Mahathir has addressed Malaysians to unite for the development of the economy.

"This new government will be one-year-old in a few days," he said in a Facebook post on May 2.

"The government's goal is clearly outlined -- to make Malaysia a developed nation with good environmental and social protection policies, economic inclusion and harmony." He also wrote that boosting productivity and promoting quality investment are among the government's priorities," he said.

"We have come a long way to be where we are today and despite all the challenges we still stand united as Malaysians."

But will Malaysians continue to stand with Pakatan Harapan moving forward, that is the question.