Many people in Singapore have been walking around staring intently at the ground the past three weeks or so.

Some have been walking alone. Some have been walking in groups.

While others are seen walking around with maps and metal detectors. Day and night

Besides getting some form of exercise and peeling their eyes away from digital devices, these people are hoping to get at least S$1,000, or preferably S$100,000, richer.

Hunt The Mouse is back

This is so as the Hunt The Mouse treasure hunt by Sqkii came back on Dec. 13, 2018.

The goal is to find an elusive gold coin with a mouse inscribed on it -- or the several consolation silver coins -- all of which are hidden in public places in Singapore accessible to everyone.

No grand prize winner yet

So far, there has not been any winner for the S$100,000 grand cash prize, even as multiple silver coins worth S$1,000 each have been found and the contest has spilled over into the new year.

But one thing is for sure: The odds of actually finding the gold coin keeps getting better with each passing day, as more clues are released by the event organiser.

Common gripes

As the cash prize of S$100,000 up for grabs this time round is double the S$50,000 prize put up in 2017, the person or persons who want to find it must be assumed to have to work hard to earn it.

The contest proper started on Dec. 13 this year, and there have been no shortages of complaints on social media about how the clues are worthless.

Hints about the gold coin's exact location are indeed released in drips and drabs three times a day -- with very vague hints.

With five days of clues left to go, the only upside is that this can only mean more elimination of areas where the coin is not hidden at, and thus, further narrowing the possible locations to a handful of places.

So, if you are new to the game or have not even been trying hard enough pounding the pavement to look for the gold coin, what is your advantage?

The probability of finding the gold coin is still the same as anyone else who started on Day 1.

What are the odds now?

In 2017, the gold coin worth S$50,000 was found after 23 days by a man, who was later revealed to be Mr Ting.

The contest then lasted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 22, 2017.

Subsequently, it was revealed that clues that were to be revealed in the final few days were more vital than many pieces of the other clues that came before.

24 days and counting

This time round, the gold coin has not been found even after 23 days.

As of Saturday, Jan. 5, it has been 24 days into the contest.

So, what gives?

One good reason could be due to the inclement weather at the end of 2018: As it has been raining quite a fair bit, people are less inclined to be out and about searching for a gold coin the size of a Singapore 50 cent coin.

And it is also down to chance.

The fact was that many people before Mr Ting must have been to Marina South Pier looking for the gold coin, but not everyone thought to look under leafy foliage.

Moreover, many people in Singapore might have given up after going through the search the first time round without a proper plan and feeling it was all very futile.

A game of elimination

Hence, one way to understand how to play this game is to see it for what it is: This is a game about elimination of possibilities and the improvement of one's odds based on new information.

As long as the gold coin status says "Not found",

... everyone has an equal chance.

Assumptions of what makes a good hiding location

One thing to note is the relative seclusion of Marina South Pier:

When the gold coin was hidden in 2017, it had to be done when no one was around to see the organiser do it.

It could be the same scenario this year.

The best strategy for newcomers

The best way to start for anyone new to the game is to determine an area to start looking.

By yourself.

Instead of being led by the nose by all sorts of speculation and conjecture found online or in Telegram groups set up with the expressed purpose of hunting the gold coin, independently determine where you want to go.

And do not share that information.

And a funny thing happens when more people actually participate in the hunt independently by not following the herd: The odds of eventually finding the coin improves.

This is the scenario as to why that happens:

If only one person sets out to find the coin, the odds are that the coin will never be found because the surface area of Singapore is huge.

If 500,000 people participate while not being influenced by one another's decision-making process, you can see how the task becomes doable and randomly and more evenly distributed.

So, going by this logic, it is actually worthwhile not to share info publicly.

How to interpret clues

The other problem coin hunters expressed online is the inability to parse the one-liner clues released by the organiser.

Due to the systematic process of elimination as mentioned before, one way to guess a broad location would be to do it this way:

Based on the majority of available clues released so far, it appears the location of the gold coin can be narrowed to the southwestern part of Singapore.

All the "at least ___ away" clues tell participants these are the places not to look.

This clue could refer to Solaris or National Library building:

This seems to suggest it is near a fire hydrant:

Appears to point to southwestern region:

A clue that this might be able to be spotted on Google maps?:

A water body that could be man-made or natural?

Binoculars

These are the binoculars scenes referred to in the clues released:

How to be waylaid by clues

Based on some of these clues, one of the initial places suspected to be the location is Hort Park.

This is due to the presence of a dragon playground referenced in the binoculars scene, as well as it being a certain distance from The Interlace, which is inspired by Habitat 67.

Hort Park also has a slight vantage point and might contain water features to provide the sound of water movement.

But alas, Hort Park is not accessible to the public 24/7 as it operates from 6am to 11pm.

So, by identifying possible locations before even going to the ground to search, you will then be able to corroborate your guess with the next updated piece of information to see what you have deduced is accurate or off the mark.

You can do this for multiple potential locations before even heading outside.

Good luck, gold coin hunters.