On June 6, Business Insider ran a story on Kim Jong-un with the eye-grabbing headline, "Kim Jong Un is reportedly extremely afraid of assassination around the Trump summit — and he’s right to be".

Quoting Bloomberg on a statement that "Kim is extremely worried about security at the summit and is fearful of assassination attempts, according to two people familiar with the matter", the BI article proceeds to detail a list of risks to Kim that supposedly present a threat of assassination and why his fear is justified.

Threats

Potential assassination threats to Kim listed in the article include:

• "Flying across international airspace to a neutral country [which] provides him even less security [compared to his own country]."
• Flying a civilian airliner "with virtually no air force" in a region filled with surface-to-air threats and a large US military aviation presence.
• A possible plot from China to assassinate him, as China supposedly attempted it before with the involvement of Kim's uncle Jang Song-thaek
• US National Security Advisor John Bolton's talk of a "Libya model" for North Korea, referencing former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi giving up Libya's nuclear aspirations in 2003 and being killed later in a NATO-backed uprising in 2011
• Kim's rule being inherently unstable

The article concludes that Singapore has "taken remarkable measures to guarantee the security of the summit" and supposedly prevent Kim's potential assassination.

Same article published elsewhere

Bloomberg's article of Kim being worried has also been reproduced by The Straits Times and Time, albeit under different headlines.

Fox News also ran their own article quoting Bloomberg, with the headline, "Kim Jong Un terrified someone will kill him at Singapore summit: report".

An earlier incident in 2017 where North Korea angrily accused South Korea and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of hatching a "bio-chemical" plot to assassinate Kim is cited.

Coupled with the extensive security preparations currently undertaken for the summit and it would seem that Kim's fear of assassination is quite real.

However, such articles should be taken with taken with a grain of salt as the scenarios raised, especially by Business Insider, are highly speculative.

Breakdown of scenarios

Some scenarios, such as a possible assassination plot by China and John Bolton's "Libya Model", look highly unlikely in light of recent developments.

Potential assassination plot by China

On a possible plot by China, it should be noted that Kim has visited Chinese President Xi Jinping not once but twice in the past three months -- the first time from March 27 to 28 and the second time on May 8.

The first visit was an invitation by Xi and was also Kim's first trip abroad since assuming leadership of North Korea in 2011.

This visit was considered a "significant shift" in relations after six years of a deep chill between both countries, which saw Kim purge the North Korean government of officials who were conduits to China, including Jang, who was executed.

It is likely from this period that Business Insider has probably drawn their scenario of an assassination attempt by China.

Business Insider further references a Nikkei Asian Review article on Aug. 21, 2017, titled "Pyongyang missile footage is a dagger to Xi's throat", about the bad blood between North Korea and China up to that point.

But given that Kim's second visit in May ended with both Xi and Kim stating there were "positive progress" and "positive outcomes" respectively, there is little merit to the scenario that China would currently want to assassinate Kim.

John Bolton's "Libya Model"

As for Bolton, CNN has reported that he has been deemed "counterproductive" to the talks by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Bolton's remarks of the "Libya model" elicited a furious reaction from North Korea on May 16 about his "repugnance" and a threat to pull out from the summit.

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Bolton also prompted an angry reaction from his own side, with Pompeo confronting him at the White House and Trump blaming Bolton for derailing the summit.

Accordingly, Trump and Pompeo have sidelined Bolton from preparations for the summit.

It seems, therefore, unlikely that the "Libya Model" will present a security risk to Kim either.

China to provide an escort

With regards to Kim having to fly a long distance across international airspace in a civilian plane over a region "stacked with surface-to-air threats", the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports that China could provide a fighter jet escort for Kim's flight when it enters Chinese territory en route to Singapore.

Yue Gang, a retired People’s Liberation Army colonel and Beijing-based military analyst, notes that while it is highly unlikely the jets will fly all the way to Singapore due to territorial airspace rules, they will be able to travel close to the city state’s border due to Beijing’s claims to most of the South China Sea.

The escort will also have the added effect of sending out a message that China backs Kim strongly.

Internal threat vs. External threat

On a security risk emanating from Kim's rule being inherently unstable, Business Insider has based this scenario on the possibility that Kim agrees to denuclearisation and opens up his country to the outside world, resulting in an uprising by North Koreans.

Here, this scenario is not so much an external assassination threat, but rather the internal threat of a civil uprising, which is different from the security risks of the summit.

Moreover, given that Trump's expectations for the summit according to Ankit Panda a North Korea specialist and a senior editor of the Diplomat magazine, consist of:

So, on table for June 12 should things go well, as of Trump's recent remarks:

— declaration on end of Korean War

— move toward normalization

— agreement on moving toward a peace treaty

— invitation for Kim Jong Un to the US

— no sanctions relief until denuclearization (per Abe)

— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) June 7, 2018

It would therefore seem highly unlikely that Kim would immediately agree to denuclearisation and opening up North Korea to the external world as a result of the summit.

Friendlier tone compared to the past

Fox News citing the alleged 2017 incident and North Korea's reaction also stands in stark contrast to North Korea's current tone to the summit.

Previously, North Korea called the CIA and the Intelligence Service (IS) of South Korea a "hotbed of evils in the world".

This time, the tone has been much friendlier, notably with Kim's response to "again state to the US our willingness to sit face-to-face at any time in any form to resolve the problem" after Trump initially cancelled the meeting on May 24.

Actual details are scarce

And perhaps of greatest importance is that the Bloomberg article itself, which has seemingly formed the basis of other articles reporting on Kim's fear of assassination, is actually remarkably thin on details about what Kim is worried about.

The section of the Bloomberg article titled, "Kim's Worries", only mentions that Kim is worried about security in one sentence, with the rest of the section talking about communications between Trump and Kim.

Overhyped speculation about Kim's fears?

If extensive security preparations are being undertaken at the summit, it would be better to see the preparations as the standard state-of-affairs for people of such high profile. After all, this is the US President and Supreme Leader of North Korea who are coming into Singapore

What's more, as the BBC details, Singapore is a country that the Kims feel extremely comfortable in.

Singapore is one of the few countries that still hosts a North Korea embassy.

Singapore is also a "non-party, non signatory state to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court", so theoretically, the North Korean leader does not have to worry about being drawn into human rights abuse cases while he's here.

What's more, Singapore also has a burger chain in North Korea.

And of course, Singapore has gone to great lengths in maintaining its status as an ally of both China and US, which contributed to the decision to choose our country as the location for the summit.

Ensuring Kim continues to feel comfortable here is very much in our interests as well.

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