Most of us know Johor as a great weekend getaway, where good deals and great shopping can be found.

A special state in Malaysia

But we may not be fully aware that Johor is also special for another reason: It's a highly-prized battleground state in Malaysian politics.

And it is especially significant given the upcoming Malaysian general election due by Aug this year.

Considering how different Malaysian administrations can potentially impact our bilateral relations, it's worth paying a bit more attention to the political situation across the causeway.

Here's a couple of reasons why it will be interesting to look out for Johor's electoral outcomes.

1. Johor is a bell-wether for national voting trends

According to an analysis by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Johor has "unique culture and political significance".

It is Malaysia’s third largest state with some 3.7 million citizens and residents.

It has the second largest number of parliamentarians (26 seats).

It is also one of the country’s main economic “motors”.

A number of other attributes make Johor’s electoral outcome assume even greater importance:

• The state is ethnically mixed. In addition to its bumiputera majority of 60 per cent, it has substantial numbers of Chinese and Indian voters, comprising 33 and 7 per cent of the population respectively.
• Its level of urbanization of 72 per cent also closely mirrors the national average.

Hence, it's a state that is observed closely for national voting trends. Results in Johor will be a good indication of the final election results.

2. Johor is important for historical reasons, given its links to UMNO

As pointed out in the same analysis by ISEAS, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) — the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional’s key component party — is deeply and inextricably linked to the state.

It was founded in Johor in 1946, and the state has produced a disproportionate number of senior political figures and cabinet ministers over the years.

Johor is also the stronghold of the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), which together with UMNO are two of the largest parties that form the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN).

The Chinese party is the most important component of the BN after Umno, representing ethnic Malaysian Chinese who form 23.2 per cent of the country's 32 million population.

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3. Johor is shaping up to be a hotly-contested state

The stage is set for a close fight which the ruling coalition cannot afford to lose.

According to the Straits Times, Johor is the home state of former deputy premier Muhyiddin Yassin who's leading the opposition's charge for the upcoming election.

Despite being a fortress of BN/Umno, the opposition has successively increased its seats in the state legislature in the last three elections. Today, the opposition parties control nearly a third of the wards.

Johor is also home ground for four MCA MPs and Amanah’s deputy president Salahuddin Ayub.

Dr Norshahril Saat, a fellow at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute said in ST:

"(The opposition) is using Johor as a symbol of a Malaysian revival, because Umno was founded in Johor and the state has always been a bastion of Umno, so if there is political change, it should also come from Johor"

4. There's uncertainty in how some Johor voters will make their choice

• Voter fatigue

According to a study presented at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, some residents are unhappy that politicians and political groups no longer walk the ground there, causing some disenchantment with local politics and casting uncertainty over electoral outcomes.

Some are also tired of the scandals surrounding 1MDB and the intense politicking that has seen Mahathir Mohamad return to politics to lead the opposition.

The corruption scandal might not matter as much to Johoreans after all, as most of them, along with the majority of other Malaysians, are more concerned about bread and butter issues.

• BN is likely to hold on to Johor, for now

While BN’s fortress in Johor has shown signs of vulnerability, it is likely to hold — for now.

That's the conclusion of the ISEAS analysis, given the structural advantages enjoyed by BN/UMNO.

This includes its coalition of different ethnic groups that appeal to different voters, the FPTP (first-past-the-post) electoral system, malapportionment and favourable redelineation lines.

The number of rural and over-represented seats in UMNO’s fold makes an Opposition majority in the state parliament an unlikely scenario.

The redelineation exercise will likely reduce — but not eliminate — the number of seats favourable to the Opposition.

In addition, BN has three things going for them:

• First, UMNO is closely identified with Johor and at the local level is associated with public service and nation-building.
• Second, the unique development pattern of the state has meant a particularly well-developed and controlled religious education system that is traditionalist in outlook, translating into a difficult environment for other Islamic party like PAS to make headway.
• Lastly, in spite of recent scandals, the extraordinary success and large scale of the FELDA (Federal Land Development Authority) scheme translates into very high levels of support for BN in a key number of state and parliamentary seats.

Najib waiting for "inspiration"

Prime Minister Najib has until June 24 to call for a general election, failing which the Malaysian parliament dissolves automatically.

Polls must be held within 60 days from the date of dissolution.

He has said he is waiting for "inspiration" to decide the right time to call a general election, and there's speculation that he will dissolve parliament sometime between the end of March and early April.

Top image via Getty Images

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