[Article update]

The next Presidential Election will be reserved for Malay candidates next year, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Parliament on Tuesday (Nov 8).

This will be based on the hiatus-triggered model.

In other words, if a qualified Malay candidate steps up to run, Singapore will have a Malay President again.

For those who do not understand how the hiatus-triggered model works, we have explained it below.

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Finally, it is now clearer in terms of how we can sometimes have a Chinese President, a Malay President, an Indian President or an Eurasian President.

This government has revealed the contents of the Constitution Commission Report submitted by Chief Justice Sundaresh Menon and eight other wise men and woman.

Hiatus-triggered model

Enter the proposed Hiatus-triggered model.

If a racial group -- Chinese, Malay, or Indian and other -- has not been represented in the Presidential office for 30 years (5 terms x 6 years), only candidates from that racial group can contest.

If there is no qualified candidate during that election, the contest will subsequently be opened to candidates from all racial groups.

How this will work for each racial group

In line with the system for group representation constituencies (GRC) in Parliamentary elections set out in the Constitution, the relevant racial communities are categorised as follows:

a) Chinese,

b) Malay, and

c) Indian or other.

Chinese: If there is no Chinese President after Tony Tan (2011-2017) for the next five terms, the Chinese community will be guaranteed a contest among themselves in 2047.

Indian and other: If there is no Indian (or Eurasian) President after the late S R Nathan (1999-2011) for the next four terms, the Indians and Eurasians will be guaranteed a contest among themselves in 2041.

Now, for the tricky part - an exclusively Malay candidate election in 2023 or next year?

The hiatus-triggered model is straightforward for the Chinese, Indian and Others community because there were Elected Presidents from their community -- Ong Teng Cheong and Tan (for Chinese) and Nathan (for Indian and Eurasians).

If we backdate this hiatus-triggered model to 1993 (the start of the term for our first elected President Ong), we will be required to have a "Malay candidate first" election for the following 2023 PE, which is after next year's 2017 PE.

If we backdate this model to include our Presidents before the EP kicked in, Malays will be guaranteed a contest among themselves in 2001 (end of President Yusok Ishak's term - 1971 = 30 years).

This was Home Affairs and Law Minister K Shanmugam's response to Mothership's query on how it may be applied to a Malay candidate:

"The Government is asking the Attorney-General for advice on certain aspects of the Commission’s

proposals to ensure representation of all the major races in the office of the President.

The Government will announce its position once the AG has given his advice and the Government

has considered it."

Our take?

If we start on a clean slate and introduce the model next year, it will take the Malay community 54 years since the start of EP to be guaranteed a Malay President. This is probably a no-go for the government.

If we backdate to Singapore's independence in 1965, we will be required to have a "Malay candidate first" election next year.

This means we may not have the chance to re-elect current President Tony Tan again.

Awww...

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