Reading the tea leaves regarding the Elected Presidency (EP) can be a treacherous affair.

The late former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said that "a week is a long time in politics", so imagine predicting the likely outcomes of a political office that only creep up in the minds of Singaporeans every six years.

Some Singaporeans are currently talking about the EP because the Constitutional Commission has released their recommendations to the EP last week (September 7). The Commission, led by the Chief Justice, was convened to look into updating the eligibility criteria and other aspects of the EP.

In response, the Government has released a white paper today and accepted most of the major recommendations related to the eligibility criteria, representation of all races, and council of Presidential advisers. With the Government holding a majority of seats in parliament, it is therefore not a question of whether the bill will be passed as a legislation.

Since the likelihood of the bill being passed is a foregone conclusion, this means that we can speculate on the race to the White House Istana instead:

1. Bye bye Tan Cheng Bock, it was nice knowing you.

Tan Cheng Block the meme is now Tan Cheng Block (TCB) the reality.

This is because the government has accepted the Commission's recommendation on the eligibility criteria, which will therefore disqualify TCB.

TCB, who was the PE runner-up in 2011, announced his intention to run again on March 11 this year.

The 75-year-old garnered a respectable 738,311 votes (34.85 percent of the valid vote), just 7,382 votes fewer than current president Tony Tan.

Perhaps sensing that the EP tide is going against him, it took 4 days after the EP recommendations by the Commission for TCB to finally break his silence.

Last weekend. TCB said in a FB post that he has "been kept busy assuring" many Singaporeans that they should not "jump into conclusion that the whole exercise was to prevent me from running".

TCB added that "the people in charge are men of virtue and integrity and would not resort to doing this".

What next for TCB? Will he set up a political party instead to scratch his electoral contest itch?

2. Second time lucky for President Tony Tan?

Will President Tan answer the call to public service and put up his hand again?

As the man who first used the term "new normal", he was perhaps one of the main victims of the "new normal" after General Election 2011, scoring a mere 35.2 per cent of the popular vote in the 2011 Presidential Election (PE).

Five years have flown by and Singaporeans are still only getting to know him better.

Now that TCB is out of the race, will TT be tempted to add a new narrative to his rich pre-2011 political legacy?

He appears to be okay with the recommendations, having been consulted by the Constitution Commission.

PM Lee also highlighted the positive working relationship with TT in his President's Address on 27 January 2016:

"I would like to state up front that the Government has a very good and constructive working relationship with this President, President Tony Tan. We are not proposing this review (on the EP) because of any dissatisfaction with the present working arrangements, or any difference of views between the Government and the President".

This means that the path is clear for TT to run for his second term, with the caveat of course that the next PE is not reserved for a Malay candidate.

3. Congratulations, Mdm Halimah Yacob!

With the Government accepting most of the major recommendations, the government's statements on the length and currency of the applicant's qualifying tenure were among the few responses that raised eyebrows.

"The Government agrees that it is important that applicants be required to have spent adequate time in a qualifying office. At the same time, the precise minimum duration to be set is ultimately a question of balance. Given the concurrent changes to the other aspects of the eligibility criteria, the Government prefers to adopt a cautious approach, and retain the qualifying tenure at 3 years at this time." White Paper on the review of specific aspects of the Elected Presidency, page 16.

The Government agrees with the Commission's recommendation to introduce a currency requirement...the Government would prefer to proceed cautiously, particularly as it is a new requirement. In the Government's view, as long as an applicant's qualifying tenure falls wholly or partly within 20 years of the relevant Presidential election, his experience may be considered suitably current." White Paper on the review of specific aspects of the Elected Presidency, page 17.

Although both the Government and the Commission agreed on the idea of updating the eligibility criteria and increasing the quality of the eligible candidates for the presidency, the Government is taking a more lenient approach to the length and currency of the qualifying tenure.

For instance, the Commission's recommendation for the minimum tenure of qualifying EP candidate to be 6 years was rejected by the Government, as the government preferred to stick to 3 years, which is the existing position.

Let's use two examples to better illustrate the difference of views on the currency of experience and minimum tenure:

Currency of experience

Current situation: Our pioneer generation Ministers can still qualify. This will include Singapore's first cabinet Ministers, like Home Affairs Minister Ong Pang Boon (who stepped down from the cabinet in 1984) and Social Affairs Minister Othman Wok (who stepped down from the cabinet in 1981).

Commission's recommendation: Our pioneer generation Ministers would not qualify. Any Ministers or Permanent Secretaries who retired before 2002 would not qualify. Finance Minister Richard Hu, who retired as Minister in 2001, would not qualify.

Government's White Paper: Any Ministers or Permanent Secretaries who retired before 1994 can still qualify.

Minimum Tenure

Example: Halimah Yacob, who was elected Speaker of Parliament on 14 January 2013.

Current situation: Halimah would have qualified as an EP candidate automatically because she was speaker for 3 years 7 months. (3 years 7 months > 3 years).

Commission's recommendation: Halimah would not have qualified as an EP candidate automatically (3 years 7 months < 6 years).

Government's White Paper: Halimah would have qualified as an EP candidate automatically (3 years 7 months > 3 years).

Popular with her residents, Halimah is probably the best thing that happened to Yishun since the launch of Golden Village Yishun 10 twenty-four years ago. In a Straits Times interview in 2013, she shared that she has lived in the same five-room Housing Board flat in Yishun for 30 years.

The only 1.54 million dollar question left is: Will Malay candidates be given priority this coming PE?

Related article:

4 days after PE recommendations, Tan Cheng Bock finally breaks silence

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