The People's Action Party (PAP) candidate, Murali Pillai, has theoretically won the Bukit Batok SMC by-election.

Based on the sample count of 100 votes, it was revealed at 9.26pm that he received 61 percent of votes.

The result is expected to be formally announced around midnight.

Some 25,727 eligible voters were expected to cast their ballots at nine polling stations from 8am until 8pm on Saturday.

The national absenteeism-cum-spoilt vote rate was about 8 to 9 percent based on the General Election 2015 (GE).

In the GE2015, 7.90 percent of Bukit Batok's electors had spoilt or abstained from voting: Of the 27,077 electors, 545 spoilt their votes, while 1,593 abstained from voting.

What is a sample count?

A counting assistant picks up a random bundle of 100 ballot papers in front of the candidates and counting agents.

The votes will be added up, with weightage given to account for the difference in the number of votes cast at each polling station.

For instance, if one ward in the constituency has more residents than other wards, more weightage will be given to that constituency.

How accurate is a sample count?

Statistician-speak: It has a 95 percent confidence level.

Human-speak: The results has a margin of error of plus/ minus 4 percent.

This means there is not clear cut winner if Party A gets 52 percent of the sample votes, while Party B gets 48 percent of the sample votes.

So, 95 percent confidence level does not mean that there is 95 percent confidence that the sample count is correct.

However, in this Bukit Batok by-election, taking into consideration the margin of error, the PAP candidate would have at least still won 57 percent of votes.

Caveat: As this is a sample count, the election result could be different. Counting is still in progress. The public should wait for the announcement of the election result by the Returning Officer, Ng Wai Choong, which will be broadcast ‘live’ on television.

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