The Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Chee Soon Juan, has theoretically achieved his personal best in electoral performance even if he lost the Bukit Batok SMC by-election.

Based on the sample count of 100 votes, it was revealed at 9.26pm that the SDP Sec-Gen received 39 percent of votes.

In other words, Chee would score 35 per cent in the worst case scenario and 43 per cent in the best case scenario.

If that's the case, this would be Chee's personal best among his five electoral contests.

Chee's record

Chee’s vote share has hovered between 30 to 34 percent in the past four contests he participated (24.5%, 34.86%, 20.25%, 34.4%).

2015: Holland-Bukit Timah GRC

PAP - 66.6%

SDP - 33.4%

2001: Jurong

PAP - 79.75%

SDP - 20.25%

1997: MacPherson

PAP - 65.14%

SDP - 34.86%

1992: Marine Parade

PAP - 72.94%

SDP - 24.5%

NSP - 1.42%

SJP - 1.14%

Chee first contested in the 1992 Marine Parade GRC by-election and had lost in 4 elections (1992 BE, 1997 GE, 2001 GE, 2015 GE) in total.

The result is expected to be formally announced around midnight.

Some 25,727 eligible voters were expected to cast their ballots at nine polling stations from 8am until 8pm on Saturday.

How accurate is a sample count?

Statistician-speak: It has a 95 percent confidence level.

Human-speak: The results has a margin of error of plus/ minus 4 percent.

This means there is not clear cut winner if Party A gets 52 percent of the sample votes, while Party B gets 48 percent of the sample votes.

So, 95 percent confidence level does not mean that there is 95 percent confidence that the sample count is correct.

However, in this Bukit Batok by-election, taking into consideration the margin of error, the PAP candidate would have at least still won 57 percent of votes.

Caveat: As this is a sample count, the election result could be different. Counting is still in progress. The public should wait for the announcement of the election result by the Returning Officer, Ng Wai Choong, which will be broadcast ‘live’ on television.

Related articles:

Bukit Batok by-election: A small town votes but no one cares because election fatigue has set in

Will the Sample Count be the BE MVP tonight?

Photo essay: The invisible people before and after the rallies

Top photo by Edwin Koo.

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