OK, we made up the word "Batokian" up so you'd click on this article.

This Bukit Batok by-election is somewhat significant, and if you set aside two minutes Mothership.sg will explain why.

1. A Murali win will be a valid argument against the logic of fielding a Chinese candidate in an SMC.

In General Election 2015, 13 of the single-member constituencies (SMC) were won by Chinese candidates, whether they were from the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) or the Workers' Party (WP).

In terms of by-election history, the PAP fielded male Chinese candidates in its last three by-elections since 1981.

The late President Devan Nair was PAP's last non-Chinese candidate. He contested in the 1979 Anson by-election and won.

Such a view on the electoral advantages of a Chinese in Singapore was first espoused by the late Lee Kuan Yew in his Hard Truths to Keep Singapore Going (2011) book:

"You sent me a draft question that says a (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies) poll says 90 per cent of Chinese Singaporeans say they will elect a non-Chinese as PM. Yes, this is the ideal. You believe these polls? Utter rubbish. They say what is politically correct. We field Chinese candidates in every single-member constituency. Ask Low Thia Khiang (Workers' Party Secretary-General) Right at the bottom, what is your gut feeling? You know you will lose if you don't (Lee, 2011, p.58)."

Lee went on to explain how things evolved over the years:

"In the early days they will vote for the PAP regardless of the candidate. Then after a while the electors got wise and they say we're going to have a PAP government anyway, so I prefer a candidate who is more like me". I could sense that and I knew that we're going to have trouble. I mean we had trouble with some of our Malay candidates. I don't want to mention names. We had to switch him at the last moment to another constituency because he couldn't handle his Chinese constituents and we knew that they're going to not vote for him. So we switched him to another constituency. (Lee, 2011, p.58)"

Such a trend was probably the reason why the Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs) was introduced in 1988.

The GRC system ensured that Singapore will always have a minimum number of minority race MPs in Parliament.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told the Parliament during the President's Address on January 27, 2016 that such a scheme will "encourage all political parties to pursue multi-racial politics rather than sectarian politics".

Will the triumph by Murali Pillai be a national first, akin to the impact made by Barack Obama as the first African American President?

Not really.

Former speaker Michael Palmer, who is a Eurasian, won an SMC in 2011 GE.

2. A Chee Soon Juan defeat would cast doubt on Chee and SDP's relevance in Singapore's political landscape.

In 2015, SDP contested in 11 seats and achieved an average of 31.23 per cent of its contested seats.

While SDP supporters could take heart that it was the third-best performing political party, SDP won none of the seats it contested.

Since Chee took over as the secretary-general of the SDP in 1996, SDP had failed to win any seats in parliament.

It failed to retain the two seats it previously held during the 1997 GE and had a 19-contest losing streak [0-5 (1997), 0-3 (2001), 0-2 (2006), 0-4 (2011), 0-5 (2015)].

Will the win by Chee be a significant event for the opposition's cause?

Not really.

We already have the Workers' Party (WP) in the House, which will probably make more impact in parliament with their 6 MPs and 3 NCMPs.

Related articles:

Bukit Batok by-election: A small town votes but no one cares because election fatigue has set in

Will the residents of Bukit Batok accept Chee Soon Juan as their MP?

Former football defender Murali gives a half time report on his PAP campaigning so far

5 people at SDP’s third Bukit Batok by-election rally tell us why they’re there

Top photo by Edwin Koo

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