The opposition Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) is sending secretary-general Chee Soon Juan to stand in the upcoming by-election (BE) in Bukit Batok SMC.

The election, which has to be called "within a reasonable time", and speculated by some to occur in May, was sparked by the resignation of incumbent People’s Action Party (PAP) MP David Ong on March 12.

Now, we've given this some thought, and see three key things working for, as well as against, Chee.

Things working for him:

1. His candidacy and campaign continues the redemption arc that Chee was building in the last General Election (GE).

Chee’s candidacy, barring any gaffes, would be a good continuation of the story we saw from GE2015. Since his contest last year — his first in 15 years — he has managed to gain supporters, and his party has started looking significantly more credible than when he was at the helm in the late '90s.

The former academic and neuropsychologist showed us his gentler side, opening up about his family and working harder to identify with voters in his GE2015 campaign approach.

An Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) poll found almost half of Singaporeans felt the SDP was credible last year, a 24 per cent hike from GE2011.

His one main obstacle, however, will be the fact that social media will not do much in swinging votes in his favour, even though his messaging may be on point.

In that same poll, the IPS also found that 47.3 per cent of Singaporean voters had already decided on who to vote for even before election day, and that social media did not have much impact on ballot outcomes.

2. The by-election effect, which often helps buoy the opposition candidate.

Swing voters are always willing to at least seriously consider any alternatives to the ruling party during the BE.

This is because the BE is triggered by a mis-step on the part of the incumbent in the first place, which indicates that the initial person they voted in, and by extension the party he or she belonged to, has let residents down.

A reason some touted to explain the massive vote swing toward the PAP in GE2015 was the fact that all wards were contested, triggering a fear of the PAP being toppled in favour of an opposition majority in Parliament. Coordinating Minister for Infrastructure Khaw Boon Wan exploited these honestly unfounded concerns, declaring there was no "safe seat" for the PAP to win.

But as with the previous two BEs in the past four years, the PAP starts at a disadvantage - it will continue to form the government after the Bukit Batok by-election, so voters can cast their ballots for Chee without fear of losing their government.

Thus, Chee stands a real chance if he makes the right moves, does and says the right things.

3. His change of tack to take a local tone instead of a national one, by leading with town council management

The SDP has had its alternative town council plan since the last GE — the most recent of its battery of alternatives, from healthcare to the economy — but the fact that it led with the town council plan informs us of its realisation that elections are ultimately very much local.

Chee has promised a host of things he will do with the town council should he take control of it, while according to mainstream media, also plans to hold quarterly town halls and annual elections for town council officers.

But whether the SDP’s idealism rubs off on residents is another issue.

Apart from veteran Chiam See Tong's work in Potong Pasir SMC (1984 to 2011), SDP under Chee's leadership remains untested in the area of town council management.

Besides Workers' Party candidates, only Singapore Democratic Alliance Chairman Desmond Lim had highlighted his extensive experience in Town Council management, having helped Chiam as a consultant at Potong Pasir Town Council for 14 years.

This is a common hurdle all opposition parties vying for parliamentary seats will have to eventually cross.

And here are the things working against him:

1. He may be running against PAP’s Murali Pillai, who has some pretty good grassroots credentials.

47-year old Muraliharan Pillai, a commercial litigation lawyer and former Branch Secretary of PAP Bukit Batok, is fast looking like the top choice for the PAP’s candidate in the Bukit Batok BE.

Murali, according to former Minister Lim Boon Heng, was a "heavyweight" in the PAP Aljunied GRC suicide squad team, and is familiar to Bukit Batok:

Now, 95 per cent of Bukit Batok’s residents live in public housing and 71 per cent stay in one- to four-room flats.

Chee might have the upper hand in relating to residents, since he lives in a three-room flat.

But Bukit Batok is part of the "Jurong GRC family" and a stronghold of PAP.

Backed by the popular Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam (whose Jurong GRC team was the top scorer at 79.28%), Murali or any PAP candidate familiar with Bukit Batok, will be tough to beat.

2. David Ong enjoyed a huge vote share in GE2015.

If GE2015 is anything to go by, it seems Bukit Batok SMC residents are either pretty happy with the PAP or weren't impressed by the opposition.

Throw in the fact that a recent opinion poll by Blackbox Research, which does research on government satisfaction indices in Singapore (yes, those are legal) shows 78.9 per cent of people were satisfied with the government, and you've got a pretty darn uphill climb for Chee ahead.

Singapore's last BE, in 2013, the familiarity of Lee Li Lian aside, came on the back of dissatisfaction with the Population White Paper, the SMRT bus drivers' strike, and several huge train breakdowns.

Even if the SDP claims it garnered 48 per cent of the votes in 1991 when it last contested one-on-one, the situation then was extremely different too.

Back then, the PAP witnessed declining vote share in two consecutive elections prior to 1991.

It was also the first post-LKY-as-PM election, and the SDP was far more popular with Chiam at the helm, and had three MPs elected into parliament.

3. Chee needs to explain his seeming absence from grassroots efforts and outreach since the last election.

During the press conference, Chee announced various initiatives to engage Bukit Batok residents, including a quarterly town hall for residents to bring up issues, as well as the town council plan.

Yet, when asked about what he has done on the ground in recent years, Chee said his party was blocked from doing so:

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“We have tried so often to come down to the ground, to speak to the residents, but every step of the way, we’re given the answer ’no’.”

He also said this: