Li Shangfu has been removed as China's defence minister on Oct. 24, ending months of speculation as to his role in China's government, but without resolving questions as to his whereabouts.

Where in the world is Li Shangfu?

The Global Times reports that Li Shangfu was removed as Minister of National Defence and State Councillor by President Xi Jinping via presidential decree.

Qin Gang, who was removed from the role of foreign minister in July 2023, was also formally removed as State Councillor on the same day.

Li was appointed defence minister and state councillor in March 2023, part of a new slate of ministers and party officials that received promotions in and around the start of Xi Jinping's unprecedented third term.

Qin, who was appointed as foreign minister at the end of December 2022, was also appointed state councillor in March 2023.

In China, an official's place in the governmental hierarchy is more accurately portrayed by their party position rather than their ministerial portfolio.

Li is also a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission (CMC), China's highest level defence organisation which heading by Xi.

The CMC operates under the umbrella of the Chinese Communist Party, not the People's Republic of China.

This sets Li apart from Qin in that Qin no longer appears to have any official appointments, while Li has yet to be officially removed from the CMC.

Reuters reported in September that Li was under investigation for suspected corruption related to equipment procurement and development.

Qin, who was replaced by his own predecessor Wang Yi in July 2023, similarly has not had his removal explained, although as in the case of Li, there were persistent rumors.

Bloomberg, commenting on Li and Qin's removal noted the relatively short time between their appointments and removal, saying that it raised questions about stability in the highest levels of China's government.

Neither men have been seen in public for several months, Li since the end of August 2023, and Qin in June 2023.

Replacement?

Reuters reported on Oct. 13 about speculation on Li's replacement, naming Liu Zhenli as most likely prospect.

Li's likeliest replacement, according to Reuters/rumors, is Liu Zhenli

Liu is a CMC member & combat veteran who runs the joint staff dept

But this role is more important than running mil-mil diplomacy as defense minister

Maybe, like Wang Yi, Liu now does two jobs?

4/5 pic.twitter.com/8ke7LY4frt

— Neil Thomas 牛犇 (@neilthomas123) October 16, 2023

Liu is a combat veteran, having served in the Sino-Vietnamese conflict, a series of border skirmishes which occurred in the aftermath of China's short-lived invasion of Vietnam.

Liu is currently the Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC, roughly equivalent to that of the U.S.'s chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, a role he has held since March 2023.

Reuters also notes that Li had either been unable or refused to meet his U.S. counterpart Llyod Austin, ostensibly because he had been sanctioned by the U.S. due to arms deals he had previously secured with Russia.

Despite this Austin appeared able to force a meeting, albeit brief, when both men attended the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in July 2023.

Liu is not under sanction, and is thus believed to be able to meet with his western counterparts.

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