Top US Air Force General predicts war with China in 2025 in internal memo to commanders

He ordered commanders to step up efforts to ready for conflict.

Gawain Pek | January 29, 2023, 03:03 PM

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In an internal memo circulated to commanders of the U.S. Air Force's Air Mobility Command, four-star Air Force General Mike Minihan predicted that war between the U.S. and China will break out in 2025.

Contents of the internal memo was first seen and reported on by NBC News on Jan. 28.

The memo, dated Feb. 1, was sent out on Friday (Jan. 27), Reuters wrote.

2024 elections provide opportunity to move on Taiwan

According to NBC News, the signed memo was addressed to all air wing commanders in Air Mobility Command as well as other Air Force operational commanders.

In the memo, Minihan wrote that he has a gut-feeling that "we will fight in 2025", though "I hope that I am wrong", NBC News reported.

The General pointed out that both the U.S. and Taiwan will have elections in 2024.

This provides Chinese President Xi Jinping with the opportunity to move on Taiwan while the U.S. is distracted, Minihan wrote.

“Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025,” he concluded.

Orders commanders to ready for war

Following this observation, the General instructed the commanders to report all major efforts to prepare for a war with China by Feb. 28.

Minihan also laid out instructions for what commanders should do in the month of February and March.

In the coming month, Minihan directs all Air Mobility Command personnel to strike with lethality, to "aim for the head", and update all personnel records and emergency contacts.

In March, he directs all personnel to "consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared", NBC News quoted.

The memo also provides a hint at the kinds of capabilities the U.S. is possibly building up in anticipation of the war, such as the use of drones, NBC News wrote.

Authentic memo, but not consistent with Pentagon's assessment

In response to news of the memo, Pentagon officials said that Minihan's views are not consistent with the military's assessment, according to Reuters.

One U.S. defence official also stated that the General's comments are not representative of the department's view on China.

However, an Air Mobility Command spokesperson confirmed in a statement the authenticity of the memo, noting that the orders issued builds on the unit's efforts to ready for future conflicts, NBC News wrote.

The Pentagon and White House did not comment, FT reported.

U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin said earlier in January that he "seriously doubt" that increased Chinese military activities in the Straits of Taiwan were a sign of an imminent invasion, Reuters reported.

Top image via US Indo-Pacific Command/Facebook, Southern Theatre Command/Weibo