Follow us on Telegram for the latest updates: https://t.me/mothershipsg

"We expect the worst is to come," warned French President Emmanuel Macron, after his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to The Guardian, citing a senior French official, Putin reached out to Macron and stated in a 90-minute call that he was prepared to go "all the way".

This meant Putin taking "full control" of Ukraine, whether by diplomatic or military means.

With more Russian forces moving into the country and advancing on Ukrainian cities, including its capital of Kyiv, at least one military expert believes the bloodiest fighting of the war has yet to commence, and it will take place within the cities themselves.

"Brutal" urban warfare expected

Writing for the Sydney Morning Herald, retired Australian general Mick Ryan believes that the horrors the world has witnessed so far are just the beginning.

"There is an increase in the use of artillery, rockets, thermobaric weapons, and air delivered munitions in all these cities. The recent strikes on the centre of Kharkiv and in Kyiv are probably, sadly, just the beginning of this more brutal phase of Russian operations."

Ryan noted that the population of Kyiv have made preparations to stand and fight, and expects a "highly destructive" battle.

16/25 We'll see an escalation in violence as the Russians prosecute this Battle of the Cities. We have seen their growing desperation for tactical success through their use of artillery, rockets and possibly thermobaric weapons in & around civilian areas in the past 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/KcWHYAnzws

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) March 3, 2022

The Royal United Services Institute, a leading defence think tank based in the UK, published a stark commentary by Royal Military Academy Sandhurst lecturer Lance Davies on the expected urban warfare about to commence.

It lays out two broad scenarios depending on what the Russians choose to do.

Subjugation

The first scenario sees a blockade of Kyiv, cutting off its access to necessities like food, water and medicine.

At the same time, Russian forces would wage a psychological campaign to undermine the resolve of the civilian population, make them believe that their besiegers are in full control, and get them to turn on the city's defenders.

Davies pointed to the Russian attack on the TV tower in Kyiv, which would have knocked out communications if the tower was destroyed.

Davies adds:

"This psychological pressure would be accompanied by sustained long range precision fires to neutralise military positions, economic facilities and seats of political power. The aim is to paralyse the city as a socioeconomic organism and to force the urban population to exit Kyiv."

⚡️Russia strikes at TV tower in Kyiv.

Ukrainian TV channels stopped broadcasting several minutes ago.

Photo: Ukraine NOW/Telegram pic.twitter.com/bdNW2EcyJ7

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 1, 2022

Annihilation

The second scenario, Davies grimly predicts, is the "levelling" of Kyiv.

Although this would provoke even more outrage from the international community, and is the "least palatable" option for the Kremlin from a political standpoint, the Russians have well-established history of using extreme force to fight an enemy within a city.

In the First Chechen War in the mid-90s, Russian forces pounded the breakaway city of Grozny in Southeastern Russia with mass artillery fire, and with what Davies called "utter disregard for the civilian population."

During Russia's involvement in the Syrian civil war,

"Russia supported brutal siege and starve strategies – which compel non-state armed groups and urban populations to comply with local agreements only after prolonged unlawful sieges and bombardment – conducted among and against the people, with total disregard for civilian life and critical infrastructure."

He adds, "If less forceful measures fail to produce an effect, the Russian military and political leadership may force themselves into believing that a bloody assault of Kyiv is their only option to secure Russia’s operational and political aims."

While this would run counter to Putin's baseless claims that he launched the war to protect the Ukrainian people from a tyrannical extremist government, the option may remain on the table.

No end in sight

Ukrainian negotiators are meeting with a Russian delegation in Belarus for a second round of talks, according to CNN.

They seek an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to leave frontline areas, reported The Guardian, citing Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhaylo Podolyak.

Although the two sides agreed to the organisation of humanitarian corridors, reported ABC, a ceasefire was not reached.

In the call, Macron warned Putin that he was making a "major mistake", adding that Russia would remain isolated, weakened and under sanctions for a long time.

But according to Élysée Palace, "There was nothing in what President Putin said to reassure us."

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky had a dire warning for Europe, "If you do not have the power to close the skies, then give me planes! If we are no more, then, God forbid, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia will be next."

Top image from SES Ukraine Telegram Channel.

Follow and listen to our podcast here