March 30, 2022, 06:12 PM
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After more than a month of fighting since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has decided it will reduce military activity near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and its northern city of Chernihiv.
Late on Mar. 29 (Singapore time), Russian deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin said Moscow will "fundamentally cut back" military activity near those cities, Al Jazeera reported.
This, Fomin said, was meant to "increase trust" during the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to end the war.
Instead, the Russians are likely to focus their military operations in the eastern part of Ukraine, reported AP News, in a bid to carve out the breakaway territory of Donbas.
Ukrainians claim victories in counter-offensives
However, Russia's offer may not have been made entirely out of altruism.
Prior to Russia's announcement, the Ukrainian military claimed a string of victories, even retaking territory previously seized by the Russians, The Washington Post reported.
AP News reported on Mar. 29 that ahead of the negotiations, the Ukrainians claimed to have retaken the town of Trostyanets, which opened up a vital road that could be used to resupply the city of Sumy to the east, under attack by the Russians.
Probably Ukraine’s most significant counter-offensive success so far: retaking the city of Trostyanets yesterday and unblocking the resupply road from the besieged regional capital Sumy to Poltava. That leaves only one regional capital, Chernihiv, encircled. (📷 via Sumy Gov.) pic.twitter.com/ZLzm5q4LLl
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 27, 2022
AP and Reuters reported that the Ukrainians have also retaken Irpin, a town in the suburbs of Kyiv that lies to the northwest.
Burnt out vehicles sit in a compound, as Ukrainian fighters of the Odin Unit advance forward, retaking, for now, the town of Irpin. The success of Ukraine’s forces shows the steep challenges Russia faces in trying to capture Kyiv, the capital. https://t.co/U6WTG10u2E pic.twitter.com/SNIQ32Fod3
— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 30, 2022
These military successes in pushing the Russians back from their occupied positions has led some analysts to speculate that Russia's move to wind down operations near Kyiv is a tacit acknowledgement of their logistical and other difficulties.
Mark Hertling, retired U.S. Army general and the former commanding officer of U.S. Army Europe, opined that the Russians were motivated by the heavy losses they sustained in battle.
Many news chyrons proclaiming “Russia is reducing their forces in Kyiv.”
— MarkHertling (@MarkHertling) March 29, 2022
It may be better to state: “Ukraine has and is continuing to reduce Russia’s forces near Kyiv.”
The UK's Ministry of Defence also stated that Russia's focus on the eastern region of Donbas is an indication of its failure to advance along more than one significant axis.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 30 March 2022
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 30, 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/ete9x5Ty71
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/202UH5Uz8t
The Pentagon also said that while a small number of Russian forces have left Kyiv, it does not constitute a withdrawal.
Pentagon says U.S. has seen small number of Russian forces leave from around Kyiv but it is seen as a repositioning and not a withdrawal.
— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 29, 2022
Progress of negotiations
A ceasefire agreement may be the goal, but both sides appear to have a long way to go before reaching it.
The Russians, according to the Financial Times (FT), are no longer aiming to "de-nazify" Ukraine, an explicit yet vague aim of Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the beginning of the war.
A draft of the ceasefire document cited by FT does not include the other Russian demands of "de-militarisation" and special protection for the Russian language in Ukraine.
Moscow is even prepared to allow Ukraine to join the European Union (EU).
However, it demands that Ukraine abandon its aim of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It also demands that Ukraine not develop nuclear weapons or host foreign military bases.
On Ukraine's end, President Zelensky has said he is open to not joining NATO.
However, he has said that he will not compromise on Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Ukraine's military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, warned that he believes Putin has switched from an initial strategy of conquering Kyiv to creating a "Korean situation" in the country, splitting it into two portions with one friendlier to Russia.
Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia, speaking to FT, said that the Ukrainians are also looking for security guarantees, including from countries like Russia, the U.S., China and Germany, in case of a future attack.
However, he said there remain many unresolved points in almost every issue. Other negotiators are also concerned by what they said was Russia's shifting position on its military movements and demands.
Breathing space
The New York Times also cited analysts like Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of War Studies at King’s College London, who believe that the reported concessions could be a ploy for the Russian army to regroup and resupply after failing to take Kyiv.
"Russia is adjusting its goals to reality, because war is quite empirical. It’s not a ruse to say that they are concentrating on the Donbas, because in reality that’s all they can do," he said.
"This is a chance for the Russians to consolidate, to regroup, to remove themselves from places out of reach logistically, where they have already run out of food and ammunition," said François Heisbourg, a defense analyst with French analytical group the Foundation for Strategic Research.
Suspected poisoning
The spectre of foul play also hangs over the negotiations, after The Wall Street Journal reported that a Ukrainian lawmaker, a negotiator and Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich all came down with symptoms of suspected poisoning following a Mar. 3 meeting in Kyiv.
Abramovich, well-known as the owner of Chelsea Football Club in the UK, was participating in the negotiations following a request from the Ukrainians.
Top image from Ilia Ponomarenko Twitter.
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