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About 120,000 adults in Singapore who are above the age of 20 are unvaccinated against Covid-19, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said at the Multi-Ministry Taskforce (MTF) press conference on Jan. 21.

Most of them are unvaccinated by choice, and "very few" of them are unvaccinated due to medical ineligibility, Ong added.

This pool of unvaccinated people can put a significant strain on the healthcare system, as they have a higher chance of falling severely ill, hence the Vaccination-Differentiated Safe Management Measures (VDS) remain necessary, Ong said.

A 'significant load' enough to displace non-Covid patients who require urgent medical care

If all of the unvaccinated individuals were to be infected by the Delta variant of Covid-19, about 5,800 of them are expected to require care in intensive care units (ICUs) or pass away, Ong said.

While Ong acknowledged that, in reality, not all unvaccinated persons will be infected by Covid-19, and the infections will not happen at the same time, he added that severely ill unvaccinated patients will take up healthcare resources that other non-Covid patients could have otherwise used.

"Even if say, a quarter of the 5,800 ICU cases occur over a duration of four to eight weeks, it will be a significant load on our healthcare system.

A significant load enough to displace many patients -- suffering from acute complications of cancer or severe chronic diseases -- who may need urgent medical care. Enough load to consume a lot of costly Covid-19 therapeutics. Enough to degrade the overall quality of care of the healthcare system, which will ultimately affect everyone, especially non-Covid patients who are critically ill."

Unvaccinated individuals are at higher risk of falling ill or dying from Covid-19

According to the dataset compiled by the Ministry of Health, the chances of unvaccinated Covid-19 patients needing ICU care or dying is "many times" more than that of the fully vaccinated.

It ranges from seven times more for those aged 80 and above, and 50 times more for those in their 30s.

"Throughout the pandemic, two-thirds of our ICU beds were occupied by people who were not fully vaccinated. And very likely for Omicron, it may turn out the same way," Ong said.

In addition, the data also show that unvaccinated individuals are at a far higher risk of falling ill or dying from Covid-19 infections, and the risk increases with age.

"Specifically, the chances of unvaccinated individuals falling severely ill or dying are, for those in their 60s, 7.2 per cent; for those in the 70s, 14 per cent; for those 80 and above, 24 per cent," Ong added.

In contrast, the risk for fully vaccinated individuals in their 80s is "only 3 per cent".

Not the 'right time' to remove VDS

Using the dataset, Ong said it is "not correct" to say the load on our healthcare system caused by the unvaccinated will not be significant and that the VDS are necessary.

"Our response must be scientifically backed up," he said.

While the Omicron variant appears to be less severe than the Delta variant, Ong said that "now is not the right time to take a gamble to remove VDS".

"We cannot gamble on the health of S'poreans," he added.

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Top image via Ministry of Communications and Information & Mothership