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On Dec. 8, 2001, soon after the 9/11 attacks, Singapore's Internal Security Department (ISD) successfully thwarted the plans of terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) to carry out terror attacks in Singapore.

This was according to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), which released a report 20 years after the ISD's operations that "effectively crippled" the JI splinter group in Singapore.

However, the threat of terrorism in Singapore did not end with this operation.

Every so often, we see news reports on individuals who had been radicalised and were subsequently detained.

To find out if we should still be worried about the threat of terrorism in Singapore, Mothership talked to Senior Analyst Jasminder Singh from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

Here are his insights on a series of terrorism-related questions.

JI is no longer active in Singapore 

JI is not active in Singapore after its network was successfully crippled by the authorities.

In the region, JI is primarily active in Indonesia, where it continues to operate from, and the majority of its members are Indonesians.

Many JI members, including their leaders, had been arrested over the last two years in Indonesia.

In the case of Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Myanmar, JI affiliates and individuals associated with it shifted their allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group from 2014 onwards.

Some JI members are still detained in Singapore

The situation has been different for countries that had a JI presence following the crackdown on the terrorist group since the end of 2001.

In Singapore, JI members have been arrested, and a handful of them who are considered as dangerous continue to remain in detention.

For those who have been released, they had to go through a strict rehabilitation regime and then be assessed for release.

In Indonesia, various JI members have been killed in various operations conducted by the security forces. There are surviving members who have remained with the JI and continue to serve its interests and operations.

On the other hand, in the case of its former leader Abu Bakar Bashir, he was arrested and jailed.

While he was in custody, he changed his allegiance to IS.

In Malaysia, JI members were arrested and, in recent times, those associated with Al-Qaeda (AQ) have been freed. For instance, Yazid Sufaat, who was associated with the AQ anthrax programme, was released in November 2019. Others such as those from the Pakistan Ghuraba cell have also been freed.

Of significance currently is the trial of former JI leader Hambali who is being tried at Guantanamo Bay. Hambali was responsible for the 2002 Bali bombings and was the head of JI Mantiqi 1 that covered Singapore and Malaysia.

He had previously met AQ leader Osama Bin Laden, as well as 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohamed.

IS still active in Southeast Asia

IS is the other global terrorist group that is active in the region, with its affiliates, such as the Jamaah Ansharuh Daulah (JAD) in Indonesia and the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines.

In Myanmar, the IS affiliate is Katiba al-Mahdi fi Bilad al-Arakan (KMBA).

In the case of AQ and the Taliban, the Indonesian group, Jamaah Ansysaruh Syariah (JAS), released a congratulatory message to the Taliban.

Other groups such as Rohingya terrorist groups, namely the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Katiba al-Mahdi fi Bilad al-Arakan (KMBA) are also active.

Threat of terrorism still "significant" in the region

The terror threat continues to be significant with the continued arrests of JI and IS operatives in Indonesia and the Philippines.

In Indonesia, there has been a sharp rise in JI related arrests since 2019, and these detentions have continued till now. It has also been discovered that JI had designs to enter politics, and it has done so via infiltration of government organisations in Indonesia.

In the latest arrest of JI associated individuals on Dec. 13, it was discovered that there was a plot to conduct attacks during Christmas and New Year holidays.

In the case of the Rohingyas, there are more than 150,000 of them in Malaysia, and there is concern that they could be recruited by terrorist groups.

The Philippines has witnessed various attacks by IS, with the siege of Marawi in 2017 being the highlight of terror activity in Southeast Asia in recent times.

The Filipino authorities, together with international assistance have been successful in destroying terror hideouts after the siege.

Acts of terrorism are getting more sophisticated

Acts of terrorism will be more sophisticated in the future.

Terrorists are always learning and seeking to be ahead of law enforcement. Just like how they have adapted themselves to cyberspace, we have also seen them using drones for surveillance and attacks as well.

Terrorist groups have also begun to use cryptocurrency, which is an example of their sophistication.

Geopolitical conflicts are enablers of radicalism

The situation is not that direct or straightforward.

There are some regions such as the Middle East, South Asia, parts of Africa, and even Southeast Asia, that make for a fertile environment for radicalisation to take place.

Whenever there are conflicts and injustices that can be verbalised and messaged in a particular way that resonates with some people, they may be 'bought-in' into the messaging and become radicalised.

Hence, the importance of conflict resolution is to prevent geopolitical situations from acting as enablers of radicalism.

Today, the situation in Afghanistan, for instance, with its ongoing conflict between Sunnis and Shiites, between AQ and IS, could provide fertile grounds for radicalisation, especially with resonance in the Southeast Asian region as Afghanistan did play a significant role in the birth of JI in the past.

Academics & drummers can be terrorists too

There is no one profile for terrorists today.

Based on the arrests that we have seen in Southeast Asia, they include academics, civil servants, religious figures, and students.

They are joining terrorist groups for various reasons.

For some, it is "redemption", an opportunity to cleanse themselves as they could have been former convicts such as Singaporean Megat Shahdan who joined IS.

In the case of Malaysia, a handful of them were former members of the Kumpulan Militan Malaysia (KMM) group, and they went on to join IS in Syria as well.

Also joining IS from Malaysia was Akel Zainal, an ex-rock band drummer. Dr Mahmud Ahmad, an academic from Malaysia, joined IS affiliates in the Philippines.

Some "noticeable" signs of a potential terrorist

Some tell-tale signs would probably be noticeable, such as their activities on social media.

For instance, when someone shows an extraordinary interest in terrorist materials such as videos and propaganda magazines.

Conversations with close family members and friends would also be another sign. For instance, if someone shows interest in travelling to the conflict zone areas where the terror groups are operating.

What are the conditions that might lead to someone getting  radicalised?

I think there are three key factors that can facilitate an individual's propensity to become susceptible to extremist' teaching and thence to becoming radicalised.

First is the sense of having grievances against the community and state, and these grievances can be political, economic or social-cultural as well as ideological in nature.

Second, is the presence of an 'entrepreneur' or 'radical teacher' who is prepared to exploit an individual's grievances and unhappiness by explaining them through an ideology.

Finally, the presence of an organisation that can exploit an individual's grievances.

When there is no organisation, there can also be the phenomenon of self-radicalisation where the individual accesses the information and  message online by reading or listening to preaching and then decides to act on his own.

This is how an individual can become radicalised and then undertake acts that can be very destructive, including suicide bombing.

Unlike the past when one was radicalised by face-to-face process, the new thing is online radicalisation which can get anyone and where the message can come from thousands of miles and especially when violence or injustices are carried out.

Hence, many Southeast Asians are getting radicalised by watching videos of Palestinians and Kashmiris being ill-treated by the security forces, the same way many Muslims in Southeast Asia decided to join IS because they believed that Shiites were ill-treating Sunnis in Syria.

Terror groups use social media platforms effectively 

IS shaped how terrorists utilise social media platforms very effectively.

Today, the main platforms used are Facebook, Twitter, Tiktok and Telegram.

Over time, AQ has also improved its presence on social media platforms and today has been equally effective.

Both groups have been able to utilise social media platforms to reach out to the masses, whether they are members, supporters, sympathisers or would-be supporters.

The platforms have been used to share news from conflict zones, fundraising, propaganda and recruitment.

Terrorists have also used these social media platforms to showcase live attacks.

The presence of terrorist groups has been a challenge for law enforcement agencies and the various tech companies whose platforms are being used.

Over time, the tech companies have developed policies that allow them to close the various terrorist associated accounts, but that has not deterred the terrorist from re-opening the accounts again.

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