While the Myanmar army is "a big part of the problem", they also have to be "part of the solution", former foreign minister George Yeo opined at a dialogue held at Yale-NUS College.

Dismantling the army might lead to a Libya or Iraq situation

Speaking at the event that was streamed online via Zoom on Wednesday, Mar. 10, the Senior Adviser to Singapore-based Kuok Group and Hong Kong-based Kerry Logistics Network, acknowledged that there is "a lot of anger, fear and frustration" among his friends from Myanmar.

However, he cautioned that the solution is "not to say let's demob the army", despite the army being hated by many people.

He then raised the example of Libya and Iraq, where after Saddam Hussein's regime and military were dismantled, fragmented militia groups fought to fill the power vacuum left behind.

The vacuum was eventually filled by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

He also said while Myanmar is made up of the largest Burmese ethnic majority group, there are as many as 150 ethnic minority groups, some of whom are still armed to this day, and have the capability to fight wars.

Should you remove the army from the equation, the immediate reaction will be "euphoria", but what happens five to ten years from now, he questioned.

"I think there's a fair chance that Myanmar will become like Libya and Iraq," he said.

These divisions will drag in all its neighbours, including China, India, Bangladesh and Asean, he added, and the region will have "years, even decades of trouble".

So while the current situation is "not acceptable", we have to find a way to the future which leads not to its disintegration, but to "a higher unity".

"And there's no solution without the army," he stressed.

Asean helped Myanmar in peaceful transition to quasi-democracy

Yeo also recounted his past experience working with the military government, as well as Asean, to work towards a peaceful transition to democracy.

They eventually succeeded against all expectations, and managed to facilitate a move from military government to a "half democracy" where the military continued to hold veto power over constitutional changes, and with certain portfolios reserved for them.

Yeo further said in the long years when Myanmar was ruled by a military government, their officials, ministers and leaders turned up at all the Asean meetings, and Asean "never condemned them".

The Asean way of peer pressure & compromise

Instead, in internal councils, Asean insisted that the military government put time markers on their roadmap, and Asean held them to it.

"Peer pressure works very effectively within Asean," he said, adding:

"Asean does not make decisions by voting. If we have to vote, faces are lost, and enmity's endured, so we never make decisions by voting in Asean."

Yeo further elaborated that if Asean members could not agree on something, they engage in further discussions through various ways, such as forming a committee of experts. He said:

"We go round and round until a compromise is found."

"You'll find it very difficult, after a while, not to compromise," he continued, adding that he believes the role Asean must play is to put "peer pressure" on the military government, hold them to their "one-year programme", and ask them how they are going to return Myanmar back to what it was.

For instance, Asean could ask them how exactly do they want to fix the election mechanism, and after they have fixed it, let Asean monitor to ensure that what the military promised would be properly carried out.

Should Asean do that, he believes that China, India and Japan "would not condemn what happened", and will be behind Asean, putting quiet pressure and telling the regional grouping to move to the fore.

This is why he is "not entirely pessimistic" even though the current situation is a "disaster and a huge setback, and extremely painful to watch".

According to United Nations' human rights expert on Myanmar, Thomas Andrews, at least 70 people have been killed since the Feb. 1 coup, with more than 2,000 arrested for opposing the junta, AFP reported.

Myanmar's military moved capital from Yangon to Naypyidaw for a reason

Yeo added that while Asean had "laughed" when Myanmar's military government decided to move the capital from Yangon to Naypyidaw, as it cost "billions of dollars", he realised lately after reflecting on this for "the last few weeks" that it was because the early generation of leaders had anticipated "such a scenario" -- referring to mass demonstrations.

The buildings there are "so far apart" that to move from one ministry building to another, you have to travel kilometres by car, so if protesters are demonstrating on foot, there is no way they can surround the government and bring it down, he explained.

The army is an institution that is not going to give you power readily, he said. And even if it does, it will "not necessarily lead to a better Myanmar", he added.

"However unpleasant, however difficult, you still need to compromise, and the power balance."

Believes that situation is temporary

Elaborating on the importance of compromise, Yeo explained why he thought the coup had happened as well.

He said that "like the Republicans in America, there was a grievance felt by the military and the USDP (Union Solidarity and Development Party) that many votes were fraudulently cast".

But their concerns were dismissed by the civilian government, which led to army general Min Aung Hlaing feeling "humiliated".

He continued:

"If the Myanmar society, the army is humiliated, then a careful balance which made possible the transition to a quasi-democracy, would have been upset.

What we have now is a return to the past, which I believe is temporary."

Yeo further said that he had read carefully the statements put out by the military, and opined that they were clear in saying that the state of emergency would only be for a year, that elections would be held, and that there will be a return to constitutional democracy.

This promise, coupled with Asean's backchannel diplomacy, is why he believes the situation would not be lasting.

A military spokesperson said on Thursday, Mar. 11, that the military council will only control the country for a certain amount of time, and will hand power to the winning party after holding an election, Reuters reported.

He added that while they "respect neighbouring countries and the international community", they will continue with their objectives.

You can watch the entire dialogue here:

&ab_channel=yalenuscollege

Read more:

Top image via Yale-Nus College