How ex-permanent secretary of S'pore's MFA sees Trump vs Biden election

Dealing with the world as it is.

Belmont Lay | November 04, 2020, 03:46 PM

As the United States presidential election continues to hold the world's attention, people in Singapore are also naturally looking forward to the final result to see whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will prevail.

Whichever candidate coming out tops will no doubt elicit cheers and howls of protests, given how the 2020 election is a much closer fight than the one in 2016, with in-person votes being counted first, followed by mailed in ballots.

While the polls ahead of Nov. 3 pointed to an almost decisive Biden win, predicting that he has nine out of 10 paths to victory, while Trump only has one, the reality as it is being played out now is anything but decisive.

But if it is already clear that it is either President Trump or President Biden for the next four years, what can Singaporeans expect or how do they adjust to either outcome?

How should Singaporeans think about the U.S. election?

To help Singaporeans navigate this intellectual and emotion exercise, Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has put up a short Facebook post priming the local audience in love with American drama on how to look at the situation as it is.

His four-point note is timely, given how long-drawn the vote-counting process might be and how the outcome is now out of everyone's hands.

But they essentially advise Singaporeans to:

1. Not to be too excited at any point in time about the winner until the final result is out.

2. Not assume everything Trump does is bad.

3. Recognise that the U.S. is still a major powerhouse after this election.

4. Accept that America will be more transactional moving forward.

The full post read:

US Elections

Many people have asked me who will win. I am not clairvoyant. Some weeks ago I cited a respected American political analyst as saying that given the trends then, Biden ought to get sufficient electoral college votes. Since then the margins have narrowed. But some reminders are in order.

First, given the unprecedented number of postal votes, and the fact that different states have different start dates for counting them, it may be some time before we know the final results. The delay will be even longer if some close races in key states are contested in the courts. So don’t get excited too quickly.

Second, I have constantly reminded everyone who asks me — and written about it, most recently in Nikkei Asia — that that not everything that has happened on Trump’s watch was bad and not every aspect of pre-Trump American foreign policy was good. Few things in life are wholly good or wholly bad.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, American elections are like the weather. You cannot influence the weather, you just have to adapt yourself to it. Whether the 46th POTUS is Trump or Biden the US will remain a key factor in our region and globally.

Fourth, there are two new realities everyone will have to cope with: a more assertive if not downright aggressive China, and a more transactional America, and the difference between Trump and Biden in this respect is one of degree and process and not fundamental.

You can read Bilahari's Facebook post here:

Read these points in tandem with longer article

These views by Bilahari have to be read in tandem with his more nuanced take on what a potential Biden presidency might entail.

Bilahari's commentary was published in Nikkei Asia on Nov. 3.

Biden, Bilahari wrote, will carry the Obama administration's baggage if he wins.

And this is not a good thing.

While Trump has been wont to exercise hard power incoherently, President Obama sat on his hands a fair bit, such as when dealing with Syria, China and North Korea.

So, Biden, while existing in the shadow of Obama's legacy but with a Democratic party swinging further left, will be hard pressed to manage both domestic and international issues if he wins, and without shaking off the previous blueprint as well as disavowing responsibility for the policies during eight Obama years that effectively laid the ground work for Trump to become president in the first place.

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