Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Aug. 28, 2020 formally announced his resignation from the country's top political position citing health reasons.

Abe's resignation a shock to many, succession unclear

Abe, who is the longest-serving PM in Japan's history -- a country with a penchant for changing prime ministers -- told domestic media that he was diagnosed with ulcerative collitis, an inflammatory bowel disease.

This will be the second time Abe will resign from the job, after the first time in 2007 after serving for about a year.

Previously, he also resigned due to a medical issue.

The sudden announcement came after Abe's political aides denied in the last few weeks that he was in poor health, with Japanese media widely discussing the prime minister's recent visits to the hospital.

According to Japan Times, Abe's resignation had caught political insiders and even some ministers off-guard.

Seiko Hashimoto, the minister in charge of the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, said that she learnt of his resignation from a news report, and was surprised.

Next leader to be picked around Sep. 15

Following Abe's resignation, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will need to elect a new president, who will also be the next prime minister to fill the seat.

According to Mainichi, the party will pick their next leader around Sep. 15, 2020.

The Abe administration will continue to run the government until a new leader is elected, but will not be able to adopt new policies.

The new leader will hold the position until the end of LDP's term, in which a nationwide election must be called before October 2021.

Tsuyoshi Masuda, a commentator for NHK World, said that the ruling party will likely witness a multi-cornered fight for LDP's presidency.

Here are some likely candidates who may run for the position in the coming weeks.

Yoshihide Suga

Yoshihide Suga, Abe's right-hand man and the current Chief Cabinet Secretary has stated his intention to run for the leading role, according to Kyodo.

Political insiders have mentioned that Suga is most trusted by Abe to succeed him as the next prime minister.

Before news of Abe’s resignation broke, LDP's Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai told a TBS TV programme that Suga was favoured to succeed Abe, reported Japan Times.

"He has great capabilities," said Nikai. "He has the ability to endure in the post."

However, Suga's standing within the party was somewhat dented after a tabloid magazine exposed alleged election law violations by two ministers last year, both of whom were his close aides.

The two ministers stepped down after the scandal.

Shigeru Ishiba

The former Secretary-General of the LDP, Shigeru Ishiba, had challenged Abe for the presidency of the LDP in 2012 but lost.

The politician, who was the former defence minister from 2007 to 2008, is known for his deep interest in military matters and his supportive stance towards Japan maintaining its capability to build nuclear weapons.

In a Kyodo News poll released on Aug. 30, Ishiba appeared to be "most fit" to succeed the prime ministerial role, receiving 34.3 per cent of 1,050 responses in the two-day survey conducted.

Suga came in second with 14.3 per cent of the votes.

Taro Kono

According to Nikkei Asian Review, Taro Kono, the current defence minister, has expressed interest in running for the upcoming party election as well.

With over 1.7 million Twitter followers, rather uncharacteristic of a Cabinet minister in the LDP, Kono is ahead of his party colleagues in terms of social media popularity.

Often seen by the public as wise and honest, the 57-year-old ranks highly in media opinion polls among other politicians for the role of prime minister, according to Japan Times.

Kono, who is part of Japan's former prime minister Taro Aso's party faction, also seems to have gained favour from some legislators in Aso's faction.

Aso had long been considered a possible candidate to re-run for the position, but announced that he will not be running for the internal race in September, reported Japan Today.

However, despite his public popularity, his reputation in the LDP appears to pale in comparison to other favoured faction members, such as Fumio Kishida and Motegi Toshimitsu, both whom Aso has been said to favour.

Fumio Kishida

The LDP's policy chief, Fumio Kishida, also indicated his interest to run for the role shortly after Abe announced his resignation on Aug. 28.

Kishida, who was also Japan's former foreign minister, has long been considered as Abe's "heir", patiently waiting his turn to take over, according to Japan Times.

However, LDP's top politicians have started raising doubts over the 63-year-old policymaker's ability to capture the limelight and steer the party to win in the next election, which must be called by October 2021.

Some within his inner circle have even said that Kishida is lacking in charisma, which could be a liability in the next national election.

Special mention: Shinjiro Koizumi

Besides the front runners fighting for the top seat, a young and upcoming Cabinet member has been in the public eye even before he joined the political scene.

The son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi has been ranked highly in opinion polls despite only entering politics in 2009.

According to a Kyodo News poll after Abe's announcement, the younger Koizumi had garnered around 8.4 per cent of the polls, ahead of Kono and Kishida.

The young politician also made waves earlier in 2020 when he announced his decision to take paternity leave following the birth of his son, in hopes of encouraging other men in Japan to take childcare leave, reported Japan Times.

While it was a decision applauded by many, it also drew criticism as some saw it as a political tool to deflect from other scandals involving him.

The 39-year-old politician has also been considered "too young" by many party members to run the country.

It is likely that he will not run in the upcoming party race, but has been widely regarded as a future prime minister in Japan, according to FT.

Daunting challenge ahead for next PM

With Japan's Olympic dreams still in limbo due to the Covid-19 pandemic, a daunting challenge lies ahead of the politician that takes up the role of Japan's next prime minister position.

Furthermore, the ruling party's popularity has taken a dire hit with its seemingly lacklustre handling of the pandemic.

The next prime minister will face a challenging task to lift the party's approval rating before the country's next national election, which must be called by October 2021.

Top image via Getty, Wikipedia Commons