Jamus Lim, Member of Parliament (MP) for Sengkang GRC, spoke in Parliament for the first time in a debate on Sep. 1.

The economist and newly-elected MP rose to seek a clarification from Manpower Minister Josephine Teo after the end of her speech on PMETs, low-wage workers, and EP and S Pass holders.

Lim said he appreciated the Ministry of Manpower's (MOM) efforts to address PMET concerns, and posed the following clarification:

"I would like to clarify if Minister Teo believes that simply slowing down the rate of EP and S Pass holders is sufficient to ensure that local PMETs do not get displaced."

Earlier in her speech, Teo said that Singapore had "considerably" slowed down the growth of EP and S Passes:

"In the last five years (2014 to 2019), the number of EP and S Pass holders has grown on average, less than 9,000 annually. This is less than one-third of the average annual growth of 30,400 in the earlier five-year period (2009 - 2014)...

At the same time, in the last five years (2014 - 2019), the number of locals in PMET jobs has grown, on average, around 35,000 annually."

Lim: "Misleading" to compare these figures

Lim asked if Teo believed that slowing down the rate of EP and S Pass holders was sufficient to ensure that local PMETs do not get displaced.

This was a "blunt strategy", he commented, adding that there was a need to take into account base effects, saying that even if the rate of issuing new passes has slowed, it was "misleading" to compare the number of new passes and the number of locals in PMET jobs.

He gave an example to illustrate base effects:

"A 20 per cent increase from 50 people, for example, is 10 people. But a 10 per cent increase from 200 people is in fact an increase of 20 people, which is larger in absolute terms. Now I understand that 35,000 people is larger than 9,000, but the point is that the slowdown in the rate of EP and S Pass holders issuance is less dramatic than Minister Teo claims."

Lim also remarked that many PMET positions may have already been secured by foreign talents, so it was no surprise that the numbers required went down over time, which he described as an effect of "diminishing returns".

Teo: Not about aiming for a specific number, but keeping Singaporeans employed and income growing

In response, Teo said she had "merely stated the facts", and "the facts are what they are", clarifying that while she cited figures on the slowing growth rates of EP and S Pass holders and the increase in local PMET jobs, she did not say that one contributed to the other.

She also addressed Lim's initial question, and shared that ultimately, MOM asks "what does it take" for Singaporeans to stay employed, achieve income growth, and retirement adequacy, and still look for "the best way to achieve these outcomes".

She said if this and other aims, such as reducing reliance on manpower-intensive methods of work, could be achieved without adding more passes, then "of course, the answer is yes" — that is, that slowing down the rate of EP and S Pass holders was indeed sufficient to ensure that local PMETs do not get displaced.

However, Teo emphasised that a solution taking into account Singapore's constraints, while being able to mitigate Singaporeans' "legitimate worries" over the large foreign workforce, had to be the answer.

She rejected the notion of reducing the number of foreign workers as a matter of "pre-determined ideas".

Teo cited the fact that passes had fallen by 22,000 between January to July 2020, and said that if the change in foreign worker numbers could be brought to zero or even a negative rate, while job opportunities for Singaporeans also shrink at the same time, "we will have to think very hard about whether the answer is yes".

Jessica Tan seeks clarification from Jamus Lim

Jessica Tan, People's Action Party (PAP) MP and Deputy Speaker of Parliament, later asked Lim for a clarification:

"What is his recommendation, and what is his proposal in terms of the approach or the numbers that we should take?"

Lim clarified that his stance was that reducing the growth rate of EP and S Passes is a "blunt instrument", and that thinking this would be sufficient is misleading.

He said Teo already clarified that, in fact, the ministry was not aiming for a "single number" to reduce passes, and that he wanted to "think more flexibly" about how to approach this issue.

But Tan did not stop there, rising again to ask Lim another question.

She said that her colleagues in the House had not put forward the idea that reduction of the growth in passes was sufficient.

"It is not the only thing that needs to be watched," she said, and added that it has to be done in a balanced way.

Tan seeks further clarification from Jamus Lim

She again asked for Lim's approach:

"Are you suggesting that we stop the number of EPs completely, or S passes? What would the implications of that be, and what would that mean for companies... What would it mean for Singaporean jobs [that] need to be complemented by some of these foreign workers as well?"

Lim then clarified that he wasn't referring to the other members of the House, but specifically to Teo's speech:

"She had explicitly said that at the lower end, one instrument they were using was through the restriction of quotas of EP and S Pass."

"So I wanted to clarify that that alone was a very blunt instrument, and it is insufficient. And more importantly, I also wanted to clarify that the numbers themselves are misleading."

He referred to Teo's statement that the growth rate of passes were reduced to almost zero this year, but said that everyone knew the reason, as overall unemployment rates have shot up.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the number of passes fell dramatically, said Lim.

"So we shouldn't be looking at pure numbers in order to make our conclusions about whether PMETs are being displaced, or not," Lim said.

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Top image from CNA.