On July 5, Tokyo re-elected its first female governor, Yuriko Koike, for a second term, Japan Times reported.

Since then the paper, along with Kyodo News and East Asia Forum, have raised the talking point that Koike might be in the position to become the next female prime minister, with the most recent commentary republished by CNA on Aug. 11.

And despite Koike stating that assuming the position is not on her mind, the two Japanese media outlets have reported that it is an unspoken assumption that she intends to do so.

Koike is looking good compared to Abe Shinzo over Covid-19

The East Asia Forum commentary by Craig Mark, a professor of international studies at Kyoritsu Women’s University, highlighted the most immediate reason as to why Koike has a chance to contest for the position: Her response to Covid-19 has contrasted sharply with that of Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe.

Mark wrote that Koike has been crisp and clear in her communications with the public, which included frequent press conferences and much use of social media.

Her response to Covid-19 has overshadowed her failures to achieve her stated objectives of addressing overwork, congestion, and improving childcare and elderly care.

Meanwhile, Abe's Covid-19 response has been described as "erratic and lacklustre".

Both Mark and Kyodo News also cited the political scandals that have plagued Abe's administration.

His approval rating has since slumped, with The Japan Times reporting that it stood at 35.1 per cent, according to a poll held in July.

Respondents have said it was “too early” for the Japanese government to lift its request for people not to travel across prefectural borders in June.

Koike: Tokyo will establish own version of U.S. CDC

As for Koike, she has declared the highest level of alert for Tokyo, given that it has more than 10,000 Covid-19 cases, with the current figure standing at 16,474 as of Aug. 12.

The Mainichi reported that Koike also announced on July 31 that Tokyo will launch its own version of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in October, to provide advice on infectious diseases and coordinate efforts in crisis management.

She said: "To prevent the spread of infections and to stop our health service infrastructure from collapsing, we must create a system even stronger than the one we have now."

Koike faces obstacles to becoming PM

But Koike still faces significant obstacles to becoming prime minister, despite the strength of her response to the Covid-19 outbreak.

Mark has highlighted that Koike first needs to step down as governor of Tokyo and contest a seat in the Lower House of Japan's Parliament (also known as its Diet), once the next national election, due by October 2021, is called.

Meanwhile, the Japan Times commentary on Koike pointed out that she has also experienced mixed success when she launched her own political parties in 2017 — Kibo no To (Party of Hope) and Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First).

Kibo no To splintered over Koike's stance on amending the Constitution with regard to the status of Japan's Self-Defence forces, winning only 50 out of a total of 465 seats in the Lower House of Japan's Diet during the general election in October 2017.

It also lost support afterwards and Koike eventually resigned as the party's leader.

However, Tomin First no Kai has had more success in holding power within Tokyo's Metropolitan Assembly, although using the party as a base for a national party will be a risky move, Mark wrote.

This is because Koike has a similar stance with Abe's own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on issues such as nationalism and having the government boost the economy.

The Asahi Shimbun further quoted one of Koike's advisers for years as stating:

"Does she have what it takes to be prime minister? Absolutely. But she doesn’t have the political machine that can make it happen."

Top image from Yuriko Koike Facebook