A historian academic, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, has made his prediction for 2020.

He has picked Joe Biden over President Donald Trump for the upcoming 2020 United States presidential election.

Correct predictions since 1984

Allan Lichtman, an author and history professor at American University, made his prediction in a video for The New York Times published on Aug. 5 -- three months before the November presidential election.

Predicted Trump win in 2016

Lichtman previously went against the grain by predicting correctly that Trump would win in 2016.

He also predicted correctly that Trump would be impeached. That’s two for two.

But Lichtman’s record goes much deeper in the last four decades.

In 1980, he developed his presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history.

He has been calling elections since 1984.

13 keys to the White House

His prediction model makes use of 13 different categories, dubbed the “Keys to the White House”.

The 13 categories focus less on the nominees, but more on the record of the incumbent party occupying the White House.

The keys are presented as true-false statements.

The statements are framed to favour a win for the incumbent party if true.

But if six or more of the statements are false, the challenger, which is Biden in this upcoming election, is predicted to win.

Lichtman’s verdict, as he called it in the NYT video: “The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House.”

Biden gets seven out of 13 keys in his favour

The model favors Biden on seven of the 13 prompts.

The keys are as follows, along with Lichtman’s responses as per the video.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections.

False. “Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018.”

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

True. “No Republicans challenged Trump.”

3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election.

True. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down.”

4. Third Party: There is no major third-party challenge.

True. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.”

5. Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession.

False. “The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession.”

6. Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.

False. “The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.”

7. Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national policy.

True. ”Through his tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era.”

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign.

False. “There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order.”

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.

False. “As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus, he has plenty of other scandals.”

10. Foreign or Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

True. “We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true.”

11. Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

False. “While Trump hasn’t had any big, splashy failures, he hasn’t had any major successes either.”

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic.

False. “Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.”

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic.

True. “Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he’s not inspirational or charismatic.”

Trump's campaign rebuts prediction

Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh rebutted the prediction in a statement to CNBC.

“This is an election like no other in history and the choice couldn’t be more clear – between President Trump’s established record of accomplishment for all Americans and Joe Biden’s 47 years of failure and acquiescence to the extreme left,” Murtaugh said.

“American voters will decide this election, not academics or professors.”

Whether the professor's prediction will hold or be thwarted in this extraordinary Covid-19 world will be revealed in three months' time.

Top photos via Joe Biden Facebook & Donald J. Trump Facebook