Election vs re-election: Does WP have incumbent's advantage over PAP in Aljunied & Hougang?

The simplistic answer is that defending is easier, but there's always more to it than just that.

Nigel Chua | July 08, 2020, 10:01 AM

In the general election of 2011 (GE2011), the Workers' Party (WP) won in Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC), making history as the first opposition GRC team to enter Parliament.

They made history again in 2015 after successfully defending the constituency with the same team, comprising Low Thia Khiang, Chen Show Mao, Pritam Singh, Sylvia Lim, and Muhammad Faisal Bin Abdul Manap.

The latter three members are standing for re-election in Aljunied in GE2020. It remains to be seen whether they will succeed. But if they do, they will once again make history as the first opposition team to defend a GRC more than once.

In neighbouring Hougang, a WP Member of Parliament (MP) has been elected in every election since 1991, when Low first clinched the seat.

As the incumbent in Aljunied and Hougang, will the WP enjoy any advantage at all?

And if so, would it be enough for them to hold on to those six seats and avert what Pritam called a "real risk of a wipeout" of elected opposition MPs in the coming election?

The simplistic answer is that defending is easier.

But there is, of course, more to it than that.

What is the "incumbent's advantage"?

There have been precious few examples of successful unseating in Singapore.

Since independence, there have only been 10 instances* where constituencies changed hands after an election (i.e. a different party from the incumbent in that constituency won).

Thus, just going by the numbers, defending MPs and teams have been more successful than the ones who sought to unseat their political rivals.

In fact, it took more than 16 years after Singapore's independence for opposition MPs to unseat the People's Action Party (PAP), whose MPs occupied all seats up till 1981.

Needless to say, the party has continued to hold on to the vast majority of its seats in every election nonetheless.

Opposition MPs have advantage too

But it seems to hold true that opposition MPs enjoy the advantages that come with incumbency as well. There are cases where opposition candidates in established constituencies have had remarkable longevity.

Chiam See Tong was the MP for Potong Pasir from 1984 to 2011, defending his seat five times (in 1988, 1991, 1997, 2001, and 2006).

Chiam's seat was only lost in the 2011 election, after he took a risk and left the constituency to run in Bishan–Toa Payoh GRC in 2011.

In Hougang, however, Low Thia Khiang, who was the MP from 1991 to 2011, defended his seat three times (1997, 2001, and 2006) before the ward was taken over by fellow WP member Yaw Shin Leong in 2011, and subsequently, Png Eng Huat in the 2012 by-election triggered by Yaw's expulsion from the party over personal indiscretions.

This election, WP's Dennis Tan will attempt to defend Hougang SMC, Singapore's longest opposition-held ward and WP stronghold. If he succeeds, it will be the party's seventh term with that seat.

Exceptions to the trend: single-term opposition politicians

There have been three elected opposition politicians who have not been able to defend their seats, however, as any incumbency advantage they may have had was outweighed by other factors.

SDP infighting in 1992

Cheo Chai Chen and Ling How Doong of the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) won seats in Parliament in 1991, in Nee Soon Central SMC and Bukit Gombak SMC respectively, only to lose their seats to the PAP's Ong Ah Heng and Ang Mong Seng in the next election in 1997.

The two had been embroiled in infighting within the SDP, which saw Ling unwittingly blurting out the words "don't talk cock" in Parliament, in response to alleged provocation from Chiam.

The infighting ultimately saw Chiam speaking out publicly against the very party he had founded, resigning as secretary-general, and only evading disqualification as an MP by winning a lawsuit against the party.

With this, in the 1997 election, Chiam kept his seat, while Cheo and Ling lost theirs.

Reduced advantage

In GE2015, WP's Lee Li Lian was also unsuccessful in trying to defend her seat in Punggol East SMC.

However, this came after a less-than-full term in Parliament after she won the seat in a 2013 by-election. It could be said that any incumbent advantage she would have enjoyed was thus slightly reduced, as her time as an MP started in January 2013 and ended in August 2015.

More importantly, PAP won in a landslide in that GE, its best electoral results since 2001 with 69.86% of the popular vote, an increase of 9.72% from the previous election in 2011.

Nonetheless, Lee's former ward has since been redrawn into the newly-formed Sengkang GRC, and WP's team of young parents (He Ting Ru, Louis Chua Kheng Wee, Jamus Lim, and Raeesah Khan) will be hoping to capitalise on the fact that some voters will be familiar with them and their party, given Lee's track record in the area.

The other contenders have spent time on the ground as well. The four-man PAP team includes Lam Pin Min, who, since 2006, has been the MP for Sengkang West SMC, an area which now comes under Sengkang GRC.

Thus, there is technically no incumbent in Sengkang GRC, but both contesting parties would appear to have some advantage over a new team from another party.

What gives incumbents the advantage?

Incumbent MPs defending their seats have the advantage of regular meetings with residents, and a track record (both in Parliament, and in the grassroots) to point to.

This is thanks to them performing their duties as MPs, including the practice of holding regular Meet-the-People sessions, and running a town council.

Absent a major upheaval or debilitating scandal in the constituency, at least some voters would likely be of the persuasion that there is no need to fix what isn't broken.

The WP would likely be hoping that this works in their favour in Aljunied and Hougang once again, in the coming elections.

Challengers' advantage

However, the challengers from PAP have reasons to be optimistic as well. They too, enjoy some form of incumbent advantage by virtue of the party they are a member of.

Even in opposition-held constituencies like Hougang and Aljunied, all PA grassroots advisers are from the ruling party.

Lee Hong Chuang, PAP's candidate for Hougang, as well as with Shamsul Kamar, Victor Lye and Chua Eng Leong are grassroots advisors in the People's Association, and have had opportunities to interact with and organise events for residents.

Some of these PAP contenders have been walking the ground for at least five years.

Lee, for example, contested in GE 2015, and had been in Hougang longer than Tan.

And while the PAP team contesting in GE2020 is the only one without an anchor minister, three members of the PAP team which contested in 2015, Shamsul, Lye, and Chua, are returning, along with new candidates Chan Hui Yuh and Alex Yeo.

    Questions remain

    There are some factors in play at Aljunied and Hougang, however, which could point at results going either way.

    Hougang candidate Dennis Tan is replacing Png Eng Huat, the MP at Hougang since 2012.

    In Aljunied, it remains to be seen if the WP can hold onto the GRC, given that the election margin in Aljunied was the slimmest out of all constituencies in 2015. The WP team won by just over 2,600 votes in 2015, meaning that their vote share fell from 54.72 to 50.96 per cent from 2011.

    Additionally, Low Thia Khiang and Chen Show Mao, are not joining the Aljunied team for their third attempt this election, although the other three members of the original team which won the GRC remain.

    Low's decision not to contest this GE, is a move which, according to political analysts who spoke to CNA, could boost WP's chances, while possibly disappointing some voters at the same time.

    Historic results to be anticipated

    The results in these constituencies will be historic, regardless of what voters decide.

    If WP can hold on to Aljunied and Hougang, the records for the longest-held opposition GRC and the longest-held opposition ward respectively will be extended.

    However, if the PAP unseats either or both WP teams, it will be the first time that a ward held for multiple terms by the opposition is clawed back by the PAP in an electoral battle.

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    * - The 10 instances where constituencies changed hands after an election were: 1) JBJ, 1981, Anson, 2) Chiam See Tong, 1984, Potong Pasir, 3) Cheo Chai Chen, 1991, Nee Soon Central SMC, 4) Ling How Doong, 1991, Bukit Gombak SMC, 5) Low Thia Khiang, 1991, Hougang SMC, 6) Ong Ah Heng, 1997, Nee Soon Central SMC, 7) Ang Mong Seng, 1997, Bukit Gombak SMC, 8) , 2001, Aljunied GRC, 9) Lee Li Lian, 2013, Punggol East SMC, 10) Charles Chong, 2015, Punggol East SMC. JBJ's unseating in 1986 was not due to an electoral result.

    Top image by Syahindah Ishak and Andrew Koay