February 25, 2020, 04:27 AM
Post-failed coup analyses dissecting Malaysian politics will likely flood your social media news feeds over the next few days and even weeks.
Talk of behind-the-scenes, double- and triple-dealing, structural incoherence of coalitions, as well as impatient and even premature declarations of alliances that will come back to haunt certain politicians, will be all over the internet and news media.
And not surprisingly, coffee shop talk is already rampant in Malaysia, with some social media posts attracting attention for calling it even before things happened and the dust settled.
Facebook post praising Mahathir's political nous
Most amazing of all, was that a Sunday, Feb. 23, 11pm post -- demonstrating unholy prescience -- was written a day before Mahathir Mohamad's dramatic resignation and appointment as interim prime minister, but managed to spell out the consequences, apparently before they unfolded.
The second best part about everything that has happened over a weekend and a weekday was that the coup started and ended in record time, serving as a mere distraction for people inside and outside of Malaysia for about two days, before the hype died down.
But what Mahathir seemingly achieved in such a short span of time will reverberate far beyond what this short expenditure of time and effort suggest.
And whether the following internet analysis reads too much into the apparent superior political nous of a 94-year-old man, is besides the point.
Because what it does show very clearly is the interlocking forces at play in politics and exposes what this notion of politicking means in a real-world context, with endless overlapping interests.
It is as if no amount of books can prepare anyone who is not a political animal for this sort of games.
Some background
A few facts you should know about before proceeding to read the analysis reproduced below in full, with some parts edited for clarity.
a) Talk of a coup between Umno and Mahathir was already out in the open as early as Feb. 12 -- with some factions trying to derail it.
b) Mahathir had sufficient seats to form a majority government comprising a new coalition if he wanted to: 130 out of 222 seats.
This is an indication of the bipartisan support Mahathir commands easily, which is arguably not as readily available to others, such as Anwar Ibrahim.
With this in mind and the broad knowledge of what unfolded during the failed coup just the day before, here is the analysis:
1. Checkmate Anwar
Mahathir had the numbers to form the government in Parliament since mid-2019.
But like in a game of poker, he didn't show his hand. He was patient.
Anwar thought he could call Mahathir's bluff.
So, Anwar sent his goons around the country to keep the transition discussion alive, talked about the transition in every single country he went to, and even told Bloomberg the date is May 2020.
Mahathir allowed that to gauge the support Anwar has.
And clearly despite demonstration threats, a repeat of 1998 is impossible, as most people would have guessed.
Mahathir showed one of his cards, and that is the bipartisan support from at least 130 MPs.
The question Anwar has to answer to convince the public now is whether he has more than Mahathir's 130 MPs.
Certainly Anwar can't. So Mahathir won.
2. DAP & Amanah given ultimatum
DAP & Amanah thought that by supporting Anwar in the Presidential Council meeting, they would finally have a transition date for their prime minister candidate.
That wasn't the case.
Anwar eventually publicly backtracked, leaving DAP and Amanah out to dry.
Now both DAP and Amanah are in a dilemma.
Should they be obedient to Mahathir? Or should they continue sabotaging Mahathir's administration and risk returning to politics as opposition?
This dilemma is especially real for Lim Guan Eng, who has been in Mahathir's bad books since 2018.
That was why Lim was purportedly not sent to negotiate the ECRL terms with China in 2018.
Instead it was Daim who was sent.
With the upcoming DAP polls this year-end, it will be hard for Lim to manoeuver.
The same for Amanah, which has near to zero clout among the Malays.
Now both DAP and Amanah have no more bargaining chips.
The only bargaining chip they had was the PH Presidential Council, but Mahathir's bipartisan support of 130 MPs have outweighed that.
3. THE Umno-PAS opposition facing split
In agreeing to side Mahathir, the UMNO and Pas opposition now cannot publicly attack Mahathir and his policies because they will look stupid doing so.
People will question why are they criticising Mahathir when they already pledged support for him till the term ends.
This helps Mahathir drive the Cabinet with more efficiency.
He can waste lesser time entertaining the opposition's attacks. He can spend more time focusing on running the government.
Also, one of the terms given to UMNO was that Najib will go to jail.
This has resulted in a split within UMNO between the pro-Najib and those who want to cut off Najib.
Whether you agree with Mahathir and his policies or not, that is not the issue here.
And please let's not be naive and talk about morals or whatever.
Was Mahathir the the only one making moves?
No. Anwar, DAP, Amanah, UMNO and PAS made their moves too.
Was Mahathir the only one who played dirty? No. Anwar, DAP, Amanah, UMNO and PAS had their share.
The only difference is Anwar, DAP, Amanah, UMNO and PAS lost. Mahathir won.
So, like him or not, it must be admitted he is a above anyone else in this league.
He out-smarted everyone and out-moved everyone.
Original post here:
Top photo via Bernama
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