As of Feb. 11, the number of deaths caused by the novel coronavirus (nCoV) surpassed 1,000 in China, with over 40,000 confirmed cases in the country alone.

https://www.mothership.sg/2020/02/death-toll-passes-1000-china/?fbclid=IwAR2DagjeD_9LCtrl-id3Wulos5hrJAiWsZSUlFE8KM_qrveKRevJoKSXIA0

According to leading epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, the epidemic in China may reach its peak in middle to late February this year before it plateaus and eases.

Situation in some Chinese provinces improving, new cases decreasing

Zhong, who leads the National Health Commission's team in investigating the novel coronavirus outbreak, had predicted an earlier peak before this.

In an interview with Reuters, Zhong stated that the situation in some Chinese provinces has already seen improvement, with the number of new cases decreasing.

He also mentioned that this forecast is based on "modelling and developments in recent days, as well as government action."

Finally, Zhong said that it was necessary to carry out containment measures in Wuhan city, and has advised China to permanently ban wildlife trading.

In addition, he stated that China needs to "improve its disease control mechanisms" and "help set up a global early warning system for contagious diseases."

Experts in Singapore predict virus could be gone by May 2020

Earlier in February, two experts in Singapore had predicted that the virus could be gone by May 2020 in a piece for CNA.

These experts are Assistant Professor Jyoti Somani and Professor Paul Ananth Tambyah, who are both from the National University of Singapore’s Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine.

According to them, viruses cannot thrive if the conditions are not conducive, and the seasonality of influenza and other respiratory viruses in temperate countries has been observed to be cyclical.

This means that when summer kicks in and temperatures in China go up in May, the number of cases may fall sharply in a corresponding manner.

This is just like how SARS disappeared in the northern summer of 2003 when things got warm and has not reappeared significantly since.

Other factors like the rapid pace in which countries are finding a potential vaccine for the virus may also contribute to the virus's demise.

https://mothership.sg/2020/02/scientists-singapore-coronavirus-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR1ouA_nV6f_vbn6vsUgFJ3RMWbJAUuJ6NN3kbKdhKhcFDr7HJ4_k09QOLg

Top image via China Daily