5 questions you'll have after seeing the Electoral Boundaries Report

Because everyone wants to be a political pundit.

Jonathan Lim| July 24, 03:41 PM

The Electoral Boundaries Review Committee has released its recommendations for redrawn electoral boundaries. It submitted the recommendations to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong three days ago, on July 21.

Should the recommendations be accepted, it would see the demise of Moulmein-Kallang GRC, Joo Chiat and Whampoa SMC, and the creation of two new GRCs and three new SMCs.

*Editor's update at 5.10pm: The Government has accepted the recommendations.*

Here are five questions at the top of our minds following the changes to electoral boundaries:

 

1. What will happen to Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew and Communications and Information Minister Dr Yaacob Ibrahim?

Both were anchor ministers for Moulmein-Kallang GRC, but now that it will be dissolved and split between Holland-Bukit Timah, Jalan Besar, Bishan-Toa Payoh, and Tanjong Pagar GRCs, where they will go is now up in the air.

Except for the new Jalan Besar GRC, the rest of the above-mentioned GRCs have their own anchor ministers. Jalan Besar will be a four-member GRC — about 20 per cent bigger than the old Moulmein-Kallang GRC.

With a bigger area, therefore, it is anyone's guess whether Lui and Yaacob will once again team up and contest under Jalan Besar GRC.

 

2. Who will head the newly-minted SMCs?

The three new SMCs — MacPherson, Feng Shan, and Bukit Batok — were hived off from five-man GRCs Marine Parade, East Coast and Jurong GRC respectively.

Marine Parade and East Coast had the lowest winning margins for the PAP in GE2011, while Jurong was the second best-performing GRC for the PAP.

Will the SMCs be used to preserve important politicians (Lim Swee Say) or to distance GRCs from contentious ones (Tin Pei Ling)?

 

3. Is there Gerrymandering here?

Joo Chiat SMC, which was almost won by the Worker's Party (WP) in 2011, will be subsumed into Marine Parade GRC.

Moulmein-Kallang GRC — which was headed by a Minister plagued with transport woes and another Minister who has been facing flak in his regulatory policies in the arts and media — has been completely dissolved.

East Coast GRC, which saw the second-best GRC performance for WP, has been shrunk from a five-man GRC to a four-member one with Fengshan forming its own SMC.

Traditional opposition strongholds, and the one with the closest margin — Hougang and Potong Pasir respectively — remain untouched. Opposition-held Aljunied GRC and Punggol East SMC remain as they are as well.

Was gerrymandering done here? Your call.

 

4. When will the election take place?

In previous elections, it has taken as short as one day and as long as one month and 26 days for parliament to be dissolved and the writ of election to be issued.

The Straits Times published an article ("Will GE be in September?") last Sunday, speculating that September may be a likely month for General Election.

Lianhe Zaobao senior political correspondent Ho Sheo Be went further, predicting that GE will in fact be in the month of September.

Our prediction? September 12 is our bet for polling day, which allows GE campaigning to occur during the school holidays.

 

5. Which constituencies will face multi-cornered fights?

In GE2011, Punggol East SMC was the only one that saw a three-cornered fight between the People's Action Party, WP, and Singapore Democratic Alliance.

According to a Straits Times report on July 5, several political parties have indicated their interest to compete in Tanjong Pagar GRC.

The report also said "among those eyed by more than one party are Tanjong Pagar, Tampines, Marine Parade, Pasir Ris-Punggol and Bishan-Toa Payoh GRCs; and the single seats of Whampoa, Mountbatten and Potong Pasir."

New SMCs such as MacPherson and Fengshan may also draw some attention, since they are located in areas traditionally popular with the opposition parties.

Related articles:

MacPherson SMC is now a thing: It looks like PAP’s Tin Pei Ling has no choice but contest on her own

Bye Bye, Yaacob Ibrahim and Lui Tuck Yew’s Moulmein-Kallang GRC

Yee Jenn Jong is a sad man now that his Joo Chiat SMC is no more

Everything you need to know about the new electoral boundaries report in 60 seconds

 

 

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