The winds of change appear to be sweeping not only over Singapore, but Asean as well.

Lawrence Wong will be the ninth change in power in Asean since 2022, or tenth, depending on how many times you want to count Vietnam.

In fact, if you go back to 2021, the entirety of Asean (other than Brunei) has seen changes in the leadership of the government, or will do so by the end of the year.

Old heads

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo of Indonesia represent the two longest serving “old heads” in Asean, and they will be relinquishing their leadership roles in 2024.

In May 2024, PM Lee gives way to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong, and in October 2024, Jokowi hands over the presidency to his defence minister Prabowo Subianto, who won the Feb. 2024 election.

Singapore’s and Indonesia’s PM Lee and Jokowi have over three decades of institutional knowledge between them as leaders of their countries and within Asean.

Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, the most experienced

Both are now on their way out, and the collective experience of all the new Asean leaders will not make up half of what they provided, as long as you don’t include Brunei’s Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah amongst their number.

Bolkiah, who is both the head of state (sultan) and head of government (prime minister) in Brunei boasts 40 years of experience.

This exceeds even PM Lee’s 20 years, and he will become the longest-serving leader in Asean.

Class of 2022

Malaysia, the Philippines, and East Timor all held elections in 2022, resulting in changes to the head of their government.

That’s five changes, for those keeping count.

In Malaysia and the Philippines, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr had been involved in their countries’ politics for decades, but took up primacy for the first time.

Anwar has long led Malaysia’s Reformasi movement, ever since having been removed as Deputy Prime Minister, and made into an opposition leader in the 1990s.

Ever since then, he has led a long term campaign for political reform, and his election as PM in 2022 was seen as a culmination of those efforts, even if many allies have expressed disappointment in results ever since then.

Even Malaysia's head of state has changed, with Sultan of Johor Ibrahim Iskandar becoming the new Agong (king), and promising to take a robust approach.

Philippines, East Timor and Laos

Meanwhile, Marcos Jr is the son of Filipino strongman Ferdinand Marcos, who was himself deposed in the 1980’s.

His rise to power comes after an unprecedented landslide victory in 2022.

East Timor's president Jose Ramos-Horta, had been president of his country before.

However, East Timor is not yet officially an Asean state, but has all been accepted to the regional bloc.

Also notable was the election of a new Laotian prime minister in Sonexay Siphandone in Dec. 2022.

2023 cohort

2023 was also especially busy, with Cambodia and Thailand both seeing new prime ministers take charge.

In Cambodia's case, Hun Manet is the son of long serving prime minister Hun Sen, and one might make the argument that he represents continuity rather than change.

That might be true to a certain extent, but he also represents a newer, significantly younger political force, and will in all likelihood attempt at least some measure of political modernisation within Cambodia.

But Hun Sen has not stepped away entirely, and remains in Cambodia's cabinet, available as a resource.

Lee Hsien Loong will also remain in the Cabinet as a Senior Minister after he hands over the reigns to Wong.

Thailand and Vietnam

In Thailand, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin comes from the party backed by the influential Shinawatra family.

While likely more conservative than the popular Move Forward Party would have been, they nonetheless represent a distinct shift from the coalition that was put in power by the 2014 military coup that ousted the last Shinawatra-backed government.

But also notable is Vietnam, who has seen an anti-corruption purge introduce uncharacteristic volatility into its upper echelons, with two changes to the presidency in less than a year, once in 2023 and again in 2024.

Vietnam is currently without a permanent president, with Vo Thi Anh Xuan the acting president.

The more things change…

Political renewal is not, in and of itself, surprising , but the coincidence of almost the entire region changing leadership within the span of three years is remarkable.

Not included in this list is Myanmar, which underwent a coup in 2021, and an ongoing civil war since.

Institutional knowledge

In many situations, such as Singapore, Cambodia, and to a lesser extent, Thailand and Indonesia, where the government has many aspects of continuity government, it means that the institutional knowledge and experience does not entirely dissipate, but instead moves into the background.

In other situations such as the Philippines, Malaysia, and to a lesser extent Thailand and Indonesia, changes in leadership and governing parties mean that the institutional knowledge of previous administrations is mainly locked away.

But it also represents an opportunity to change the way that Asean does business.

One example is the difference between Marcos Jr. And his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, with the latter seemingly favouring a relationship with China, and the former returning to a more United States centric foreign policy.

Another example is how Malaysia has drawn something of a line under the Pedra Branca issue.

Previously taking its case to the International Court of Justice to try to regain control of the island, Anwar has seemingly changed the rhetoric by accepting the ICJ’s Pedra Branca ruling.

These changes in approach are most feasible during moments of political transition, with the leadership introducing new ideas and new approaches.

Asean has hardly been a static region, but such a concentrated infusion of new(ish) blood should have a noticeable impact on its future, and its citizens look on in anticipation for its results.

Top image via Prabowo Subianto/Facebook, Lawrence Wong/Instagram,  @hunmanet_coarmy/Twitter, Wikipedia, Anwar Ibrahim/Facebook, Getty, Ministry of Communications and Information (MCI)