Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary company Wagner, is rumored to have been aboard a plane that crashed outside of the Russian capital of Moscow on Aug. 24.

Name on passenger list

According to the New York Times, Prigozhin, 62, was on the passenger list for the Embraer private jet that was en route from Moscow to St Petersburg when it crashed on Aug. 23 (Russian time).

Russia's Federal Agency for Air Transport said the jet crashed in Tver region, north of Moscow, and killed 10 people.

Russian state-owned news agency, TASS, reported that Prigozhin has died.

But some Telegram channels close to Russian authorities said it was not confirmed that Prigozhin was on board, adding that he may have been on a different plane, also owned by him.

As of 2am Singapore time, eight bodies have been retrieved, but confirmation of Prigozhin's death was not yet official.

Reports by the BBC reflected an ever more dire outcome, with the reporting at 2:05am indicating that the plane had been shot down by air defense systems, with witnesses saying that they had heard "two bangs" before the crash.

A video shared by Central European news Agency Visegrad 24 showed footage purportedly of the plane's final moments.

BREAKING:

A private jet owned by Prigozhin was just shot down by Russian air defenses over Tver.

Around 10 people onboard have been killed. pic.twitter.com/mUCHws77Y0

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 23, 2023

Coup de grace

Prigozhin is the leader of Russian mercenary group Wagner, which gained infamy by taking part in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine.

Wagner was also active in the most recent 2022 invasion of Ukraine, expending thousands of its troops, many of whom were convicts recruited from Russian jails, in order to take the town of Bhakmut over the span of several months.

After taking the town, his forces withdrew from the area, handing control to the Russian military.

But rather than standing down entirely, Wagner's forces would go on to lead a failed coup against Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and taking control of the major Russian military logistics hub Rostov-on-Don on Jun. 24.

Wagner forces advanced hundreds of kilometers towards Moscow, even shooting down as many as eight Russian military aircraft along the way.

While there has been much speculation about whether Wagner's small force would have actually been able to take control of Moscow, and eventually the whole of Russia, the rebellion fizzled out about 200km from Moscow on Jun. 25.

A surprise deal had been brokered by close Putin ally and president of Belorussia Alexander Lukashenko, where Prigozhin and Wagner would relocate to Belarus.

Air defence

Prigozhin and Wager would not stay long, and by July, reports indicated that Prigozhin had returned to Russia, with many analysts expressing surprise that he had not suffered any consequences for his rebellion.

In fact, as late as Aug. 22, Prigozhin was in Africa, "making it more free", according to a speech he distributed via friendly Telegram channels.

Prigozhin published a new video.

He claims to be in Africa.

Prigozhin said that Wagner is currently "making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even freer. [We] bring justice and happiness to the African peoples". pic.twitter.com/lAJnPlCnMa

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 21, 2023

However, there may be a less clear cut but just as ironic reason for the plane's demise, given that Russian air defenses around Moscow have been on edge as Ukrainian forces have been able to attack the city using a variety of drones, most recently claiming one of Russia's most advanced supersonic bombers, as reported by BBC.

Tu-22 Backfire Destroyed In Drone Strike Deep Inside Russiahttps://t.co/O5RmGjux9u

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) August 20, 2023

If rumours of Prigozhin's plane being shot down by local air defenses are true, there will be much speculation as to the precise nature why.

While it may be tempting to see this event as malicious retribution and Putin getting even, it is also possible it was simply incompetence.

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Top image via @Gerashchenko_en/Twitter & ostorozhno_novosti / Telegram