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“Simultaneous conflicts in Europe and Asia would be disastrous and blight the future for an entire generation. As leaders, we must do all we can to avoid this nightmarish scenario,” said Minister for Defence Ng Eng Hen in his speech at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) on Jun. 4.

He was speaking at a plenary session alongside Australia's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles, and Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister General Tea Banh.

Rise in defence spending

Ng began his speech by outlining the increase in defence expenditure across the world, which has reached a high of US$2.2 trillion (S$2.97 trillion) in 2022.

He expected that this would further increase in the coming decade, but highlighted that the trend “need not be a sign or source of instability”, as such expenditure was also crucial to defence deterrence, which is practiced by Singapore.

However, without a “strategic framework of engagement and mutual restraint”, the rise in military expenditure could lead to “an arms race with greater potential for destruction” due to the balance tilting towards the risk of conflict.

Trade also promotes stability

Ng opined that the world is now changing, dominated by “a different geopolitical zeitgeist [...], emanating from domestic politics but inevitably spilling outwards”.

Pointing towards the economic dimension, he mentioned China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as well as its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Though the U.S. was not part of of these partnerships, Ng noted that it was still imperative to “anchor and sustain (its) economic interests in this region with other partners”.

Storms to come

“For Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region, the U.S.-China relationship is central to stability,” Ng reiterated as he talked about crisis aversion.

“No country I think wants war,” he remarked, but noted that unplanned incidents could happen, such as the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999.

Therefore, both informal and formal channels of communication must exist to serve as a platform for de-escalation and avoidance of conflict, Ng stressed.

However, these channels of communication need to be built over time.

“Seasoned diplomats compare unfavourably the lines of communication between the U.S. and Soviet Union in the Cold War with what exists today between the U.S. and China, now at its ebb.”

US-China exchanges matter to Asean

Ng then named past instances in which the militaries of the two great powers have had occasional exchanges, and observed that such activities have discontinued.

“It is not our place and certainly not my intention to comment on the diplomatic efforts of other countries. But I state these observations on declining touch points between the American and Chinese military establishments, knowing full well that Singapore and other Asean states are not disinterested bystanders.”

He highlighted that Asean states were “acutely concerned” about the deteriorating relations between China and the U.S. due to the region’s history, and any confrontation “will inevitably force difficult choices upon (the) individual states.”

Ng noted that both the U.S. and China have said they do not want Asean to take sides. Asean member states have a "vivid recollection" of the devastating consequences of Great Power rivalry in the past, and are acutely concerned that the worsening relationship may force Asean member states to make difficult choices.

Should not divide the world into spheres

In response to questions from the audience, Ng said that the U.S presence is vital for stability in Asia, and is the reason for the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that allows Singapore bases to facilitate U.S. ships or planes.

A member of the audience asked if the U.S. needed to prioritise where to send its resources, considering the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and whether this meant the U.S. was distracted from its priority in Asia, or if by demonstrating its commitment to Ukraine, it can reassure its partners in Asia.

Ng noted that it was crucial to prevent any conflict that would need superpowers to divide resources between Europe or Asia.

“Part of the problem is who goes into which region,” Ng said, before quoting an observation by Singapore's first Prime Minister, Lee Kuan Yew.

“Well if you ask the Chinese, they might prefer [a] dividing line around Guam, where the Chinese keep to the west side of Guam, and the U.S. keep to the east side of Guam.”

He said that such a division was “unrealistic”, as “the U.S. will not go away and neither will China go away”.

“Even if that occurred, gone back, Great Power rivalry was just defined by spheres and we know the outcome of that - World War One. Once you cross the line, you bring all the spheres into collision.”

So I think it is an unrealistic expectation that if ships and planes of any one military fly in another part of the world, then that means you're aggressive.”

Ng added that China's response to that may be that the U.S. may feel aggrieved if China "flew around" Hawaii or the West Coast of the U.S., for the "fullness of debate".

On his view about Japan in the region, Ng briefly mentioned the historical context of World War Two, before saying that it should prioritise improving its relations with China, as he “[worried] more about Northeast Asia than [...] South China Sea”.

Shoutout to Shangri-La hotel staff

Ng also expressed his gratitude to all those who have made the dialogue possible, such as the police, security personnel and the staff at Shangri-La hotel.

“Some of the hotel staff here in fact, because this is an established hotel, have attended every SLD since inception. They have grown old with us, or at least with me. They feel part of the SLD. They go home to their families and tell them that they were part of something important.”

He wished all delegates a safe journey back and to continue securing peace through dialogue.

Two days of high-level dialogue

Ng’s remarks come at the end of plenary sessions involving top officials from various countries, such as Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and China’s defence minister Li Shangfu.

After speaking at the plenary, Ng hosted a second Ministerial Roundtable.

Hosting one more Roundtable discussion with Ministers and their representatives. Always good to be able to have candid discussions on key issues. #SLD23 pic.twitter.com/2VJ1QOdnYd

— Ng Eng Hen (@Ng_Eng_Hen) June 4, 2023

He also called on the President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste José Ramos-Horta as well as Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.

On the sidelines of the dialogue, Ng met with his counterparts and engaged in dialogue on their respective bilateral security relationships.

Read our Shangri-La Dialogue coverage here:

Top image via YouTube/International Institute of Strategic Studies