As the old adage goes, success has many fathers but failure is an orphan.

Kuala Lumpur is the scene of a political parental abandonment as rumours swell of yet another attempt to unseat a sitting government using backroom tactics.

Many names are mentioned but no one is taking responsibility for what has now been deemed the “Dubai Move”, a seemingly failed plot to remove Anwar Ibrahim as Malaysian Prime Minister.

Rumours

Over the recent holiday season, towards the end of 2023, it has been alleged that several Malaysian opposition leaders met in Dubai in order to plan the ouster of Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim.

Called the Dubai Move, after the successful 2020 Sheraton move which prevented Anwar from becoming prime minister and allowed Muhyiddin Yassin to take on the role, rumours abound over who was involved and how they planned to replace Anwar.

However, as 2023 turned into 2024, the Move failed to materialise leading to accusations, recriminations, denials, and calls to move on.

According to Finance Twitter, a blog site, the rumours were that leaders from Malaysia’s main opposition parties Bersatu and Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), namely former PM Muhyiddin Yassin and Hadi Awang, met with former Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin, and former PMs Mahathir Mohamad and Ismail Sabri Yaakob in Dubai.

A version of this rumour was also spreading on social media, and Malaysia Today also attributes a concise version of events to UMNO supreme council member and Communications Director Lokman Adam.

In Dubai, the group allegedly concocted a plan to use RM750 million (S$ 215 million) to lure government Members of Parliament to their ‘side’ and topple the government.

The blog also speaks about a plan to use UMNO stalwart and former Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein to broker a deal with Sarawakan political leader Abang Johari of Gabungan Parti Sawrawak (GPS).

It was thought that any attempt to topple the government would not only require former political powerhouse UMNO to cross over, but support of the parties at least one, if not both, of the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak.

The blog marks the Dec. 22 visit by Abang Jo with Anwar in Putrajaya to illustrate the failure of the plot, because if the ‘Move’ was close to fruition, any meeting between the two men would have taken place in Sarawak.

Anwar himself has signalled that he was not concerned by the ‘Move’, recently acknowledging it at a public event, as reported by Free Malaysia Today.

Anwar said he had read about the move, but was focused on “the work at hand”, and that it did not affect his government.

Kings and desperation

Lokman, speaking to Malaysian outlet The Scoop, confirmed the existence of the “Dubai Move”.

Lokman claimed that Daim and Mahathir had been willing to spend up to RM 750 million (S$ 215 million) to buy over 15 government MPs and  that they were extremely desperate and feared being jailed, and thus were seeking to buy their way out of trouble.

Diam has recently been the target of an investigation by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), as reported by Reuters.

Daim accused the Malaysian government of a “political witch hunt”, but Lokman alluded to the investigation, claiming that Daim, and Mahathir, “were desperate”.

Lokman cast doubt over the viability of the attempted ouster, saying that any move would require the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong’s, Malaysia’s King, consent.

The current Agong is Sultan of Pahang Abdullah, due to be replaced by Sultan Ibrahim of Johor at the end of January.

He has seen four prime ministers under his tenure, by far the most of any Malaysian Agong, and he said in February 2023 that he hoped that he would not see a fifth, something that Lokman reiterated.

Political analysts quoted by MalaysiaKini said that they expected further attempts to out Anwar to end with Sultan Ibrahim’s ascension, saying that Ibrahim had signalled a wish for political stability.

UMNO President and DPM Zahid Hamidi has also said that the Dubai Move was real, and that he had received intelligence on the matter when the conspirators had flown to Dubai.

Zahid rubbished the possibility of the government falling, saying that it enjoyed a two-thirds majority, as was reported by the New Straits Times.

Zahid also criticised the Dubai Move, saying that any attempt to replace the government was in vain, and the opposition should prioritise strengthening the economy and focus their efforts on winning the 16th general election instead.

Dislocation and denial

Opposition leaders have rushed to distance themselves from the Dubai Move.

Central figure Mahathir Mohamad has said that he was not involved and that he has not visited Dubai in several years.

𝐋𝐀𝐍𝐆𝐊𝐀𝐇 𝐃𝐄𝐏𝐀𝐍 𝐀𝐓𝐀𝐔 𝐁𝐄𝐋𝐀𝐊𝐀𝐍𝐆

1. Beberapa hari kebelakangan ini agak heboh mengenai Langkah Dubai dan ada yang babitkan saya dalam usaha yang dikatakan untuk tubuh Kerajaan pintu belakang.

2. Pertamanya saya sudah lama tidak ke Dubai.

3. Keduanya,…

— Dr Mahathir Mohamad (@chedetofficial) January 5, 2024

He did not refrain however from criticising Anwar, being quoted by MalaysiaKini as saying Anwar was an “expert in… backdoor governments”, citing instances in 2008, 2014, and 2020 when Anwar had attempted to engineer political changes in either the federal or state government.

“As long as he can become prime minister, all his backdoor manoeuvrings are considered halal and virtuous”

The Star reported that Anwar on Jan. 5, when asked about Mahathir’s comments on backdoor governments, simply quipped:

“Look after your health.”

Former PM Ismail Sabri, also of UMNO, has denied involvement in the Dubai Move, according to The Star, saying that he was in Mecca and Medina on religious pilgrimage.

As if to hammer home the point, on Jan. 4, he posted a video on Facebook showing that not only was he in Mecca performing Umrah, he had met Zahid while he was there, meanwhile wishing his fellow UMNO leader a happy birthday.

Another central figure in the rumours is former PM and Bersatu leader Muhyiddin Yassin. Muhyiddin is himself under investigation for corruption, and is also claiming that the investigation is politically motivated.

But this also means that he is required to request permission in order to leave Malaysia, having to apply to have his passport returned to him, as well as stating where his intended destination is.

Because of this, it is known that he had requested the return of his passport to visit Singapore for medical treatment, and London for his holidays with a seven day layover in Dubai.

The New Straits Times reported opposition leaders such as PAS’s deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man and Bersatu Youth Chief Wan Ahmad Fayhsal calling the Dubai Move rumours as “baseless”.

Both men pointed out that the government had a two-thirds majority, with Wan Fayhsal quoted as saying “I don't understand why they (the government) are in panicking mode”.

Instead, he claimed that it was the government who was attempting to garner more support by offering help for flood victims in their constituency in exchange for backing the government.

Sole claimant... sort of

The only opposition leader who has ‘confirmed’ the Dubai Move is Kedah Menteri Besar Sanusi Md Nor.

According to MalaysiaKini, Sanusi confirmed the plot but said that it should be labelled the “Chow Kit Move” after a famous Kuala Lumpur street, as the planning was taking place in KL.

He later said his statement was tongue in cheek:

“It’s just a joke to make people laugh. But it (change of government) can be done, in line with the Constitution.”

This was a reference to the manner in which the current government has achieved its current two-thirds majority. In September Syed Saddiq quit Anwar's unity government, bringing them just under the two-thirds mark.

But since then, five Bersatu MPs have pledged their support to Anwar's government, seemingly finding a loophole in Malaysia's anti-party hopping law, and allowing them to change who they supported for the government without changing their party, thus requiring a by-election.

Sanusi appeared to allude to this saying that if the government could gain support in this way, an opposition could gain power in the same manner.

While it appears that the Dubai Move has moved very little, it appears to mean that the political threat to Anwar's government has only receded, rather than disappeared.

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Top image via Daim Zainuddin Website, Anwar Ibrahim/Facebook, Ismail Sabri Yaakob/Facebook