4 potential implications from PM Lee's speech on political changes

WP may be a big winner from these changes.

Martino Tan| January 27, 06:33 PM

So Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong gave a game-changing speech in Parliament today (Jan. 27), in which he talked about significant changes in the Non-Constituency MP (NCMP) scheme and deliberated on the qualifying criteria of the Elected Presidency (EP).

Singapore'>
needs good policies and good politics to succeed. Our political system is working now. But we must keep updating it to continue to have a high quality government in the longer term – one that is honest, competent and effective, that is always accountable to the electorate, and that upholds a multi-racial society.In Parliament today, I announced 3 things we will do to ensure this:First, we will increase the minimum number of opposition MPs, including Non-Constituency MPs, from 9 to 12 by the next election. We will also give them the same voting rights as MPs. This will in effect aid the opposition, giving their best losers more exposure and possibly building them up for the next round. But I believe this will be good for the government and good for Singapore. No ruling party and government should ever be afraid of open argument. Ultimately, Singapore will benefit from a contest of ideas.Second, we will further reduce the average size of Group Representation Constituencies, and create more Single Member Constituencies. The GRC scheme ensures that we will always have at least a minimum number of minority race MPs in Parliament. But we have to find the right balance between big and small GRCs, and the right mix of GRCs and SMCs.Third, we will review the elected President scheme — to keep the eligibility criteria up to date, to strengthen the Council of Presidential Advisors (CPA) which assists and advises the President, and to ensure that minorities have a chance to be elected President. - LHL

Posted by Lee Hsien Loong on Wednesday, January 27, 2016

What does all these changes mean? We try to make some sense for you.

1. The increase in opposition MPs is likely to entrench Workers' Party (WP)'s presence in parliament

Opposition MPs will be increased from 9 to 12, from the next General Election (GE).

Workers' Party banner Source: WP Facebook

Over the last three GEs, WP took 6 out of the 7 NCMP seats available:

Sylvia Lim (2006); Yee Jenn Jong, Gerald Giam, (2011); Lee Li Lian, Dennis Tan, Leon Perera (2015)

In fact, if the scenario is played out for the last GE, these will be the 12 Opposition MPs and NCMPs in the parliament, according to their electoral results.

1. Png Eng Huat, Hougang SMC

2. Low Thia Khiang, Aljunied GRC

3. Sylvia Lim, Aljunied GRC

4. Chen Show Mao, Aljunied GRC

5. Muhamad Faisal bin Abdul Manap, Aljunied GRC

6. Pritam Singh, Aljunied GRC

7. Lee Li Lian, Punggol East SMC

8. Dennis Tan, Fengshan SMC

9. Leon Perera, East Coast GRC

10. Daniel PS Goh, East Coast GRC

11. Koh Choong Yong, Sengkang West SMC

12. Yee Jenn Jong, Marine Parade GRC

13. He Ting Ru (if Lee Li Lian rejected her seat), or any candidate from Marine Parade GRC

The 12-member Opposition scheme may very well create a 1.5 party system in Singapore.

To appreciate the extent of how poorly Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) fared despite Chee Soon Juan's comeback, Chee can only be in parliament if legislation is amended to include 16 NCMPs.

2. Future GEs are likely to be more competitive. 

In the last two GEs, smaller GRCs and more SMCs were created.

GE 2011 was the most competitive election before GE 2015 with only founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew's Tanjong Pagar GRC not contested.

GE 2015 was the most competitive election since Singapore’s independence with all seats contested.

The trend of having all seats contested is likely to continue, since smaller parties with fewer resources will be able to compete in the SMCs.

This also means that there will be more Opposition horse-trading talks and more multi-cornered fights in future.

3. How will the review affect future Presidential Elections?

PM will appoint a Constitutional Commission, chaired by Chief Justice Sundaresh Menon, to study the following issues - bring the eligibility criteria up to date and to ensure minority Presidents periodically and make recommendations.

Let's start with the easy issue first.

If the Constitutional Commission wishes to ensure minority Presidents periodically, all four Tans in PE 2011 will not qualify because of their race.

PM Lee mentioned that Singapore have not had a Malay President since the EP system was introduced in 1991.

In other words, the first non-Chinese President after President Tony Tan will most likely be a Malay rather than an Indian.

The second issue pertains to bringing the eligibility criteria up to date.

In 1993, the number of companies with paid-up capital of at least $100 million stood at 158. PM Lee noted that ACRA's latest data shows 2,114 such companies. The criteria is likely to reduce the number of such companies that have CEOs or Chairman (or Chairwoman) who is eligible to run.

President Tan will have no problem, since he meets the public service criteria as a former Deputy Prime Minister and a Minister.

But a word of advice for Tan Jee Say.

We are not sure about the paid-up capital of AIB Govett (Asia) Limited. But we understand what 22.29% in GE 2015 means.

Tan_Jee_Say

 

4. Term limit for a President 

Tony_Tan

Currently, there is no restriction on the number of times a qualified person can be elected President.

However, if there is a criteria to ensure minority Presidents periodically, a term limit will need to be imposed.

Since PM Lee mentioned the United States as an example of a political system, will the EP go the way of the American Presidency with two term limits?

Related article:

Everything you need to know about the key changes on S’pore’s political system in 60 seconds

Top photo by Weixiang Lim

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