Now that the new Cabinet has been sworn in, The Sunday Times went to town with five pages of reports and commentaries on who will emerge as the 4th-gen leader to take over Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

One such commentary was written by its Editor-at-large Han Fook Kwang, whose credentials include 10 years as a civil servant, 10 years as ST Editor and the co-author of two Lee Kuan Yew books.

With the rule of thumb that the government "operates on the principle that predictability is a good thing and surprises are to be avoided like the haze", Han went on to predict newly sworn-in Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat as the front-runner to be Prime Minister.

"So who's in front of this pack (fourth-generation leaders)? Going by what's happened in the past, it looks like Mr Heng is in pole position".  Han, The Sunday Times (Oct 4)

He cited his previous and current portfolio as reasons why Heng stands a good chance.

1. Education Ministry

"The Education Ministry has always been one for the heavyweights."

True. Han observed that previous Education Minister include: Goh Keng Swee (founding PM Lee Kuan Yew's right-hand man, Tony Tan (current President), Teo Chee Hean (Deputy Prime Minister and National Security Coordinating Minister) and badass poet wannabe, the uber-popular Tharman Shanmugaratnam (Deputy Prime Minister and Economics and Social Policies Coordinating Minister).

And that's not including People's Action Party Old Guard Ong Pang Boon.

2. Finance Ministry

"Someone going from Education to Finance has the makings of someone heading for the top job."

Han also opined that the Prime Minister should have ideally helmed an economics ministry because economy is vital to Singapore's future.

Past luminaries include: Goh, Tony, Hon Sui Sen, PM Lee and Tharman. ESM Goh Chok Tong was Minister of Trade and Industry, a ministry that's equally important for Singapore.

We also like to play political pundit because it's fun and free. 

So here are three more reasons why we think there is much sense in Han's prediction that Heng is the man to beat. 

1. Heng helmed a ministry from the get-go.

Four out of the six 4th gen leaders helmed a Ministry from the get-go.

However, only Heng was immediately appointed as Education Minister after the 2011 General Election. Compare this to new MPs Ong Ye Kung and Ng Chee Meng, who were made Acting Education Ministers after the latest Cabinet reshuffle.

While it is true that Ong and Ng are placed in an important ministry – if we follow Han's argument – they lost out by virtue of entering politics later than Heng. PM Lee said that the next PM should be ready to take over the reins soon after the next GE, that means Ong and Ng are five years behind Heng in terms of experience. But as DPM Tharman said, five years is only short in Singapore terms as other countries have a much shorter lead time.

With a full term in the Education Ministry under his belt and the next five years as Finance Minister (barring any reshuffle), he's truly on his way to bigger things.

2. He's probably the most experienced 4th gen Minister from the 2011 and 2015 cohort

There are six Ministers or Acting Ministers from the 2011 and 2015 cohort.

But Chan Chun Sing, Lawrence Wong and Tan Chuan-Jin – all from the same 2011 cohort as Heng – were only made Acting Minister or Minister of State from the start.

Chan was Acting Minister for Community Development Youth and Sports (now Ministry of Community, Culture and Youth) and Minister for Social and Family Development. He's currently Sec-Gen of NTUC.

Wong was Minister for Community, Culture and Youth and Second Minister for Communications and Information. He's currently National Development Minister.

Tan was Minister for Manpower and currently Minister for Social and Family Development.

In order of importance relative to Finance, these ministries pale in comparison.

However, it is important to note that when Heng was made Minister in 2011, he was already 50, while Chan, Wong and Tan were made Ministers in their 40s.

Age plays a big part in deciding who will be the PM; PM Lee took the top job when he was 52, while his predecessor Goh Chok Tong was 49 when he was made PM.

3. He's following the footsteps of other political heavyweights

PM Lee "arrowed" Heng to lead "The Future Economy" Committee that will study how Singapore can help workers and businesses in adapting to a leaner workforce and other future curveballs.

This type of Committee, however, is not a new thing as The Straits Times reported:

In 2001, then-PM Goh Chok Tong created the Economic Review Committee (ERC) - chaired by Mr Lee who was Deputy PM at that time - to review policies and propose appropriate strategies to promote further growth in the Singapore economy.

About eight years later in 2009, PM Lee himself commissioned the Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) - led by then-Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam - to brainstorm new and creative ways to ensure the economy's long-term growth.

Moreover, this is not the first time Heng is appointed the Chairman of a National Committee.

Chairman of Our Singapore Conversation in 2012? Heng.

Chairman of the SG50 Steering Committee this year? Heng.

It's clear that Heng has an important role to play in shaping Singapore's future, regardless whether he is PM or not.

Just like an F1 race, starting in the pole position is a huge advantage. But there are still many laps to go in the next five years.

Unless one is competing in the Singapore Grand Prix, the F1 pole-sitter is not necessarily always the winner. Even though the signs are looking good. Really good.

Top photo from Heng Swee Keat's Facebook

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