It is difficult to campaign for an elected office in Singapore that is only due once every six years.
Because just how does one remain in the public eye, while not appearing to excessively or actively campaign for it?
As Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong once noticed about how a young Singaporean could enter politics in his National Day Rally Speech in 2004:
"So, come forward to serve. Don't wait to be asked and if you know your friend, somebody whom you think is capable, put his name up, we will take a look at him because Singaporeans are shy. Sometimes, they're afraid, you put yourself forward, "毛遂自荐" -- people may misunderstand that you are offering yourself and perhaps you've got an agenda. But if you know somebody else who is good, who's doing good work quietly, let us know, we will try him out."
Enter Tan Cheng Bock (TCB), the Presidential Election 2011 runner-up.
Because he is certainly not waiting for any friends to put his name up.
In a matter of two days, TCB has made two statements regarding the Elected Presidency (EP).
Presidential'>
Election 2017 An Important Announcement.At the last Presidential Elections of 2011, some 738,000...
To many observers, it is not a question of whether he will run but when will he start his campaign proper.
If TCB is going to make "an important announcement" on Friday and if he is going to announce his PE candidacy as predicted, he can be expected to run a more than one-year long campaign, as the next PE is not due until August 2017 at the very latest.
In other words, this will be an even longer campaign than the national SG50 campaign last year.
In US Presidential Election language, this is one kiasu potential candidate who wants to start camping at Iowa for more than a year.
Here are a few reasons why we think TCB wants to be a bit more kan cheong, in other words, on the ball, this time:
1. Fellow competitor Tan Jee Say (TJS) had made the first move, so TCB has to act fast.
On Sunday, March 6, TJS told The Straits Times and Lianhe Zaobao at a political forum that he did not rule out standing in the coming election, if he qualifies.
This was what TJS said:
"If the circumstances are such that I think I can make a difference, I would go in".
But should TCB be concerned with TJS in the first place?
After all, TJS has somewhat lost his shine as the former Principal Private Secretary (PPS) to SM Goh Chok Tong.
Previously, in GE2011, he secured Singapore Democratic Party (SDP)'s best performing result (39.92%) against the People's Action Party (PAP).
And after PE2011, TJS could still have proudly claimed to have the mandate of a quarter of Singaporeans as he pulled in 25.04% of votes, which translated to 530,411 voters.
But this is no longer the case since 2015. In fact, TJS cannot even claim to have the support of a quarter of Tanjong Pagar GRC residents (22.29%) after the GE2015, where the Singaporeans First Party failed to make any dent.
Is TJS still Presidential timber? Or will TJS be the Tan Kin Lian of PE 2017?
2. TCB wishes to influence the outcome of the Constitutional Commission before it is too late.
During PM Lee's speech at the debate of the President's Address, he provided several key timelines -- review by Commission to be completed by third quarter of 2016 and legislative changes to be tabled "within this year".
In other words, the Commission probably has about six months to gather feedback from the public and draft a report.
With the public feedback deadline looming on March 21, 5pm, TCB's hand is forced.
TCB realises that he will need to announce that he will consider running for PE this Friday, to generate more public discussions about the review.
This will likely apply more pressure on the Commission to consider his views and the views that resulted from TCB's announcement.
3. TCB wants to apply moral pressure on the Commission.
In TCB's first statement on the PE, he reminded all that he had lost narrowly to President Tony Tan (TT) by a mere 0.34%.
Reviewing'>
the last Presidential Election 2011. In the last Presidential election I lost narrowly to the current...
In TCB's second statement on the PE, he reminded all that "some 738,000 Singaporeans voted for me" during the last PE.
In other words, TCB is implying that the Commission will be wise not to ignore his opinions, for he has the mandate of 34.85% of the Singaporean electorate.
In fact, TCB may want to argue that he should be eligible for PE2017 since he has met the eligibility criteria in 2011.
It appears that TCB does not want to accept any media queries at the moment. This is so as there is no private message function on his Facebook page and no email address on his blog.
In fact, TCB's team has yet to reply to Mothership.sg's queries, which were sent to him the day before.
By organising a press conference, TCB wanted to generate the most media attention on the subject regarding the eligibility criteria.
It will be difficult for the Commission to ignore his views and the "moral weight" behind it after the press conference.
However, is time and the mood on TCB's side?
TCB (DOB: April 26, 1940) will be 77, come August 2017.
If elected, he will complete his six-year term at age 83.
TCB will still be younger than President SR Nathan who stepped down at 87, but he will be older than the average life expectancy of most Singaporean men (which is about 80.5).
Will TCB still have the vigour to be, in his own words, a "truly independent and effective President"?
Afterall, the widely admired President Ong Teng Cheong was only 63 years old when he stepped down -- albeit for health reasons.
More importantly, is TCB still close to the mood of Singaporeans in 2016/17 compared to 2011, where the PE felt like unfinished business from the GE that same year?
TCB was spot on in 2011 when he said this:
"The party (PAP) will need to take a critical look at their own way of doing things. They have to learn how to fight again. They have lost their fighting skills. They must learn from me."
Will TCB's political acumen still be accurate in 2017?
The fact of politics is: Even though TCB almost won PE 2011 -- it is the "feel" people have of TCB in 2017 that is crucial.
The young Singaporeans today are derived from a slightly different DNA from the young Singaporeans just five to six years ago and they might not know enough about TCB.
Take social media popularity, for example.
TCB's 65k FB fans would have ranked him among the top politicians in 2011 after Nicole Seah and George Yeo.
In 2016, his FB fan base is a fraction of PM Lee's fans (over a million) and much lower than Ministers K Shanmugam (93k FB fans) and Tan Chuan-Jin (72k FB fans).
According to Change In Voting: Singapore’s 2015 General Election, the first book that attempts to interpret and make sense of the General Election on Sept. 11 last year, voters under 30 (19% of the electorate) voted for the PAP in high numbers, higher than those of that age-group in GE2011.
Another observation in the book was that the level of anger and disgruntlement among youth dropped.
TCB can, however, take heart in this thought experiment.
TT will take around 60% of PAP votes. TJS will take 60% of Opp votes. TCB takes most of the rest (40% of both PAP and Opp). That means TT may win TCB narrowly. TJS will do reasonably well but hard to cross 25%.
Based on the GE2011 results, that would mean 60% x 60% = 36% for Dr Tony Tan and 60% x 40% = 24% for Mr Tan Jee Say. Based on GE2011 3-corner fight result, I felt Mr Tan Kin Lian could garner around 5-6% of the votes only, which would have left Dr Tan Cheng Bock with around 34-35%, a close second.
Based on GE 2015 results and PAP's landslide victory, a PAP-backed PE candidate will receive 70% x 60% = 42% of the popular vote.
This means TCB has the potential to garner up to 58% of the vote, if he manages to dissuade potential Tan Kin Lians from splitting his votes.
This chope situation will begin in earnest when he makes his important announcement this Friday.
March 10, 12:54 AM 
514 Chai Chee Lane 03-16, Singapore 469029