Singapore's Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen spoke on the last day of the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) where he shared a panel with Malaysia's Defence Minister Mohammad Khalid bin Nordin and the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Admiration and leadership

Perhaps the most notable part of the session came when Ng lauded Zelensky's leadership during the question and answer portion after the Ukrainian president's speech, recalling Zelensky’s first address to the SLD in 2022, during the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Saying that the audience at the time knew that they were part of history, and held a deep admiration for Zelensky, Ng said:

“Sir, you have our admiration and thank you for your leadership.”

Ng then went on to reiterate that Singapore strongly supported Ukraine's position in principle and in practice.

He recounted the fact that very soon after the start of the 2022 invasion, Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore's foreign minister, issued a statement on behalf of the Singapore government, condemning it.

Singapore also unilaterally sanctioned Russian banks that were involved in facilitating or aiding the conduct of war in Ukraine, as well as co-sponsoring a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning the invasion and calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops.

This was in addition to other aid provided by Singapore, such as the donation of several ambulances.

Ng said that Zelensky's appearance at the dialogue was the epitome of what the SLD's audience hoped for, a rules-based order that guaranteed the security and survival of nations large and small.

Dominant Protagonist

Ng’s main speech, given before Zelensky arrived on stage, centred on the idea of avoiding significant conflict in Asia.

He acknowledged the role of the U.S. and China as the region's “dominant protagonists”, who would decide Asia's fate for this decade and beyond.

Ng expressed his relief that both global superpowers had rejected physical conflict between themselves.

United States President Joe Biden said that the competition between the two had to be responsibly managed, while China's president Xi Jinping said that China had no intention to “challenge the U.S. or to unseat it”.

But despite these sentiments, Ng acknowledged that the superpowers' relationship had gone through ups and downs, especially over issues such as Taiwan and a U.S.-China trade war.

Red Line Taiwan

Ng acknowledged Taiwan as a complex issue and a "red line", but said it would be a mistake to conflate Russia with China, and Ukraine with Taiwan.

China is a more prominent player in the global economy, and Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, was not a member of the United Nations, with most countries diplomatic positions recognising a "One China" policy.

Ng speculated that the best compromise available appeared to be a status quo of "no independence and no forced reunification", without precipitous actions from any party..

South China sea

Ng said that there are no quick resolutions on competing claims or positions in the South China Sea.

Because of this, practical measures on the ground to prevent and de-escalate conflicts are needed, calling for more dialogue and engagements between the U.S. military and the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

He referenced a question that had been put to the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, on May 31, when Marcos Jr. said that the "wilful" death of a Filipino sailor by China’s water cannons, either military or civilian, might possibly be an act of war.

Ng recounted an incident in 2013 where a Taiwanese fisherman was killed by personnel from the Filipino coast guard.

But rather than leading to war, Taiwan and the Philippines had instead come to an agreement in 2015 that helped de-escalate incidents, and no similar incidents had taken place since then.

“So fishermen have been killed in fishing disputes, and it was not Casus Belli (an act that justifies war).”

Ng used that agreement as an example of what could be done to alleviate tensions in the South China sea, also giving examples of Malaysia and Thailand agreeing on a joint development area for exploration and exploitation of non-living natural resources.

He cautioned that law enforcement agencies and paramilitary organisations have yet to be included in protocols and guidelines that help to reduce the risk of miscalculation or escalation, and they need to be included.

No new cold war

Ng also sought to dismiss the idea that the tensions between the U.S. and China and subsequent events in Asia were an extension of the previous Cold War.

He pointed out several differences, chief amongst which was the fact that despite their strategic rivalry, both the U.S. and China were integral to the global connected economy.

Together, both countries accounted for 43 per cent of global GDP, and China was the top trading partner of more than 120 countries, including Asean as a whole.

Ng also noted that there was unlikely to be a "Glasnost or Perestroika moment for" China, saying that the legitimacy of the Communist Party of China was well entrenched under President Xi Jinping, and the economic development that had occured over the past three decades.

Glasnost and Perestroika refer to a series of events that led to the downfall of Communist parties in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and was Ng’s way of reminding participants that China would be a major player in Asia for the long haul.

To all the participants

Ng also finished his speech by paying tribute to his fellow Asean members, and their military partners, who took part in events such as the Asean Defence Ministers Meeting Plus Experts Working Groups which promoted military to military cooperation in 18 Nations.

He also paid tribute to the hotel, police, and ministry staff who had allowed the SLD to happen, singling out the staff of the Shangri-La hotel, some of whom had seen the first SLD 21 years ago, and now felt integral to the SLD and its quest for peace.

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Top image via MINDEF