Singapore will keep military spending at about 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the next decade as the risk of regional and global conflicts has gone from being unlikely to being "non-zero", said Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen during the Committee of Supply debate on Feb. 28, 2024.

Dreams of global peace have been decimated: Ng Eng Hen

He said that in 2014, he attended the 50th Munich Security Conference, a forum he described as "special" where Henry Kissinger (former US Secretary of State), Helmut Schmidt (former German Chancellor), and former French President Valéry d'Estaing appeared together.

"It was 50 years of peace, and the mood was one of celebration," he said. " I remember President Valéry d'Estaing saying that 'Europe had eliminated the concept of war'."

"It was just one decade ago. All those dreams have been decimated."

Ng said he can "assure" people that "surprises" and "unintended consequences" are in store, with some of them linked, while others could appear "completely out of the blue".

"When the ambient temperature of geopolitics rises, sparks and fires will arise from multiple sources.

So, I have reversed my assessment for today's generation in Singapore and elsewhere.

The risk of regional and even global conflict even in the next decade has become non-zero.

I do not make this assessment lightly."

Risk of regional and global conflicts

Ng noted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is in its third year, while there are growing concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict might spread beyond Gaza.

He pointed out that a "de facto trade war" between the U.S. and China has also begun, and there are concerns that the two countries could clash over Taiwan anytime soon.

"If that happened, it would be a very bleak Asia for a very long time."

S$20.2 billion defence budget

The Ministry of Defence's (MINDEF) budget for the upcoming financial year is projected to be S$20.2 billion, a 2.5 per cent increase from the S$19.76 billion projected for the financial year 2023.

While the country's spending for defence has increased over the years, the share as a percentage of GDP has been falling mainly because Singapore's GDP has been growing faster than its increase in defence spending, Ng said.

The proportion of defence spending has decreased from 5 per cent of GDP two decades ago to 3 per cent today despite total government spending rising from 16 per cent to 18 per cent of GDP, Ng added.

This was possible without compromising Singapore's defence abilities due to consistent and sustained investment in defence, which is the most effective and efficient means of building a strong military over the long period, the Minister of Defence said.

Reaping reward of long-term spending

Ng said that military capabilities need years to mature and yield results and that Singapore is reaping the reward of its long-term spending.

He revealed that the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) would acquire eight F-35A fighter aircraft to complement the 12 F-35Bs it previously bought.

RSAF started evaluating the F-35 in 2004 before announcing its first purchase of four of the planes in 2019.

The F-35s will be delivered in 2026, enabling RSAF to progressively draw down its F-16s while maintaining a capable air force, said Ng.

Submarines ready for operation by 2028

The Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) will also launch its fourth and final Invincible-class submarine in Kiel, Germany, in 2024.

This is the culmination of a programme that started in the late 2000s in which the submarines are designed for operations in Singapore's shallow and busy tropical water.

All four submarines will be ready for operation around Singapore waters by 2028, said Ng.

The Minister of Defence added that the four submarines are strategic assets despite being a "hefty investment".

As for the army, the next-generation Armoured Tracked Carriers (ATC) and the next-generation Howitzers will soon enter service, said Ng.

"Our steady defence spending has built up a SAF that is modernised and effective with a full suite of capabilities against threats— air, land, sea and cyberspace," said Ng.

Investment in infrastructure

Ultimately, no matter how advanced our platforms, the SAF is only as good as its people, Ng emphasised.

This is why the ministry has made a sizable investment in building up infrastructure to train national servicemen and regulars such that they can train more effectively and with greater realism.

This includes the Safti City Phase 1 and three instrumented battle circuits. An expanded Shoalwater Bay Training Area in Queensland, Australia, which will allow the SAF to scale up its annual exercise by nearly 50 per cent, is also close to completion.

"Without security, there can be no progress"

Ng brought attention to the 1990 invasion of Kuwait by its neighbour Iraq, where he noted that the U.S., leading a 42-country force, had come to the rescue of Kuwait.

"Wealthy small Kuwait with its rich resources was a tempting and lucrative victim. Wealthy small Singapore can be a very lucrative target, without a strong defence."

However, he stressed that if anything similar were to happen here, the government, MINDEF, and the SAF "do not plan on the basis that we can depend on another country to come to our rescue".

"If Singaporeans will not or cannot defend Singapore, there is no backstop. That is the simple truth."

Ng thanked the MPs for their consistent support for the defence budget, noting that Singapore spends precious dollars consistently on defence, which could have benefitted other causes.

“But we know that without security, there can be no progress,” he said.

Top image via Ministry of Defence, Singapore (MINDEF)/Facebook