Indonesia Election 2024: Quick count polls show Prabowo winning, likely to be next Indonesia President

Indonesia has voted.

Fiona Tan | February 14, 2024, 04:58 PM

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Southeast Asia's largest democracy cast their votes on Feb. 14, 2024.

Indonesia's presidential and legislative elections — the world’s largest single-day election — concluded at 2pm Singapore time (1pm Jakarta time).

Nearly 205 million eligible Indonesians took to some 820,000 polling stations across 84 electoral districts to elect a new president and vice president, and their parliamentary and local representatives.

Based on unofficial quick count polls, it appears that defence minister Prabowo Subianto is set to take office and replace the incumbent President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo come October 2024.

Unofficial quick count results

Unofficial quick count results by a number of certified pollsters were released at about 5pm Singapore time (3pm Jakarta time).

And all the polls are suggesting a Prabowo win.

In case you didn't know, a victorious presidential candidate needs more than 50 per cent of votes cast overall, and at least 20 per cent of votes in more than half the country's provinces.

And Prabowo is doing just that, dominating all of the unofficial quick count polls with around half of the samples in, hovering between 56 and 60 per cent at the time of writing.

His rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo trail behind, hovering between 20 to 25 per cent and 16 to 20 per cent respectively.

Image screenshot from Antara.

Image screenshot from Kompas.

What is quick count?

Unofficial early vote count results, also known as quick count results, are released ahead of actual tallied results, which will only be available sometime later as votes in Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous country, are counted in public by hand.

Registered private polling and survey groups deploy thousands of volunteers and staff to polling stations across Indonesia to collect quick count results.

Unofficial quick count polls and results are mostly considered a reliable indicator of the official results, the Associated Press reported.

Jakarta Globe previously reported that quick count results can be trusted as long as the numbers show a candidate winning a simple majority of over 50 per cent, with a percentage margin above the quick counts’ margin of error.

The margin of error of Indikator Politik's and Kompas' polls are 1 per cent and less than 1 per cent respectively, Kompas reported.

According to Indikator Politik's poll at the time of writing, Prabowo is leading at 58 per cent while Anies and Ganjar are trailing at 25 per cent and 16 per cent respectively.

Prabowo is leading at 59 per cent while Anies and Ganjar are trailing at 23 per cent and 16 per cent respectively on Kompas' polls.

2024 Indonesia elections

The 2024 elections' finalised results will be tallied and announced as many as 35 days later, which is the maximum time regulated by Indonesia's Elections Law, Reuters and Al Jazeera reported.

CNA reported that official results will be announced by Mar. 20, and the new President and Vice President will be inaugurated on Oct. 20.

The run-off presidential election will be held in June, if necessary

Follow our 2024 Indonesia presidential election coverage

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Top image from Prabowo Subianto/Facebook