Indonesia's first round of presidential elections is imminent, on February 14th.

CNBC Indonesia did a roundup of five different polls that were conducted during January and beginning of February, that indicated a clear advantage for one candidate pairing.

Creeping over halfway

CNBC Indonesia’s roundup included five polls, and an average of the results showed 48.2 per cent support for Prabowo Subianto, the incumbent defence minister.

Although the margin of support varied significantly for both the two other candidates, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo; Anies led by a distinct margin, 23.3 per cent to Ganjar’s 21.2 per cent.

The remainder were either undecided voters or voters who wanted to keep their decision secret.

Time series

But after digging into the results a little bit more, there was a clear distinction between data collected before and after Jan. 16, although the date itself is likely an arbitrary coincidence.

There polls conducted before Jan. 16 showed that Prabowo's support ranged between 42 to 48 per cent.

However, this was still under the crucial 50 per cent point, meaning that even though he was well clear of his two opponents, Prabowo would still have to take part in a second round runoff election.

But in polls done after Jan. 16, Prabowo breaks clear of the 50 per cent mark.

According to Kompas, the Lingkaran Survei Indonesia Denny JA poll showed Prabowo with a 50.7 per cent "electability level", with data being collected between Jan. 16 and Jan. 26.

Recency

But the most recent poll in the roundup released on Feb. 7 by Populi, with data collected from Jan. 27 to Feb. 3, shows the team of Prabowo and Gibran Rakabuming Raka with 52.5 per cent popular support.

Gibran is the son of incumbent president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

Anies, the former governor of Jakarta, and his vice president candidate Muhaimin Iskandar trail in second place at 22.1 per cent.

Ganjar, former governor of central Java, and his vice president candidate Mahfud MD, brings up the rear with 16.9 per cent.

The popular survey results explained the data breakdown even further.

In terms of favourability, Prabowo and Gibran lead the pack with 83.1 per cent and 75.5 per cent respectively, with Ganjar in third place with 70.5 per cent.

In addition, the survey said 79.9 per cent of respondents wanted the election to be settled in a single round, with the desire for political certainty and cost concerns being the most cited reasons.

The poll questioned 1,500 respondents, with an estimated margin of error of 2.52 per cent.

This means the Prabowo-Gibran pair may already have cleared the margin of error barrier to ensure a single-round election, something that seemed unlikely at the beginning of the year.

Legislature

Indonesia’s legislative elections are also being held on Feb. 14.

The prospects of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle’s (PDI-P) candidate, Ganjar, look grim; but the PDI-P remains the most popular party in the House of Representatives, at least according to this round of polling.

17.4 per cent of respondents indicated that they would choose PDI-P, with Prabowo’s Gerindra party in second place with 16 per cent.

No other party polled above 10 per cent.

If these results bear out in the election, PDI-P would remain the largest party in the legislature, but will likely lose seats.

This is pertinent because in order to nominate candidates for the presidential election, candidates need the support of at least 20 per cent of the legislature.

PDI-P currently has 22 per cent of the seats, meaning they do not need to form a coalition with any other party to nominate presidential candidates.

But if the results bear out, they may need to look for partners following the election.

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@mothershipsg A guide to Indonesia's presidential candidates: Prabowo Subianto. The former general will stand in the general elections on Feb. 14, 2024 as the candidate for the Gerindra party. #tiktokindonesia #worldnews #tiktoksg #sgnews ♬ original sound - Mothership

@mothershipsg A guide to Indonesia's presidential candidates: Ganjar Pranowo. The former governor of Central Java will stand in the general elections on Feb. 14, 2024 as the candidate for the PDI-P party. #indonesia #tiktoksg #sgnews #LearnOnTikTok ♬ original sound - Mothership

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