January 05, 2024, 06:08 PM
2023 was the hottest year ever on record, and it seems it's about to get even more sweltering in 2024.
The UK Met Office, the national meteorological service for the country, announced in December 2023 that 2024 will be a "further record-breaking year, expected to exceed 2023".
Breaching the 1.5°C threshold
According to the meteorological service, global average temperatures are measured as the difference between temperatures now and between 1850 and 1900 — a proxy for the Industrial Revolution.
The Met Office forecast in end-2022 that average global temperatures for 2023 would be between 1.08°C and 1.32°C above pre-industrial levels.
However, latest data covering January to October 2023 showed that the average global temperatures ended up being 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.
In 2024, it is predicted that the average global temperatures will be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the average of pre-industrial period.
This will mark the first time in history that there is a chance average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C, a number which has been used as a critical threshold for limiting global warming.
Going past a temperature increase of 1.5°C will likely trigger tipping points in the earth's system that could lead to irreversible changes.
"Milestone in climate history"
Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist from the UK Met Office, said that the forecasted warmer temperatures in 2024 are due to a significant El Niño event.
“In addition to the El Niño event, we have anomalous high temperatures in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean and together with climate change, these factors account for the new global temperature extremes," Adam Scaife, a physicist at the Met Office said.
However, Dunstone noted that the "temporary exceedance of 1.5°C" does not mean that the world has missed the targets the Paris Agreement has set out, as the agreement typically refers to a longer-term average of around 20 years, reported The Guardian.
"But the first year above 1.5 °C would certainly be a milestone in climate history," Dunstone added.
The Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C will only be missed if average global temperatures rise above that threshold for multiple years in a row, The Guardian wrote.
The current forecast for when this threshold will be exceeded is 2030.
The urgency to act on climate change has culminated in a landmark deal drafted during the annual United Nations (UN) climate conference held at Dubai in 2023, also known as COP28, where nations agreed that they would transition away from fossil fuels.
This is the first time in history a UN climate summit has mentioned reducing fossil fuel use.
Top photo from Unsplash
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