Cheers and chants echoed throughout the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters on the night of Jun. 4, 2024, as India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi clinched a historic third term in office.

Several world leaders conveyed their congratulations and well wishes to Modi on his appointment, including Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Taiwan's President William Lai, and Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

Congratulations @narendramodi on the historic victory by the NDA for the third consecutive term. Look forward to working with you to deepen the Singapore-India partnership and to celebrate the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties next year.

— Lawrence Wong (@LawrenceWongST) June 5, 2024

No majority

But despite the festivities, there was an undercurrent of incredulity and disbelief.

Modi's BJP had failed to secure a parliamentary majority on its own, for the first time since 2014.

Despite predictions of a landslide win, the BJP would not be able to form the government on its own.

If Modi was to become prime minister, he would need the support of his coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance.

So what happened?

"This time surpassing 400"

The BJP launched its 2024 General Election (GE) campaign to much fanfare, with the slogan "Abki Baar 400 Paar" (This time surpassing 400).

The slogan refers to the ambition of the party and its coalition partners, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), to secure more than 400 out of 543 seats in the lower house of the Indian Parliament, known as the Lok Sabha.

A party or coalition must secure at least 272 seats, a majority in the Lok Sabha, to form a government.

The goal might seem feasible considering the BJP won 303 seats in the 2019 GE by itself.

The figure rose to 353 when seats won by its allies in the NDA were added to the numbers.

The 2019 GE saw the crushing defeat of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC) led by Rahul Gandhi, son of India's sixth Prime Minister.

The INC in 2019 only managed to secure 52 seats in parliament.

Fast forward to 2024, and multiple exit polls released by Indian media predicted that the BJP and its coalition would secure between 350 to 380 seats in the Lok Sabha.

However, the BJP has not achieved the predicted figures shown in exit polls.

As of Jun. 5, the Election Commission of India shows that the BJP has secured only 240 seats in the parliament.

Meanwhile, the opposition INC and its coalition alliance known as INDIA, won 235 seats, performing better than predicted.

BJP failed to secure a majority of 272 seats

This is the first time the BJP, under Modi's leadership, failed to secure a majority of 272 seats by itself.

While BJP-led NDA won 293 seats— more than the 272 seats needed to form a government— this means Modi would have to rely on regional parties whose political allegiances could be fickle.

Modi may have to grant certain concessions to his allies in order to secure their support.

Or as Indian Express put it: "India gives NDA third term, Modi a message".

Why is Modi's popularity waning?

Unemployment and inflation

BBC attributed Modi's waning popularity to unemployment, increase in prices, rising inequality, a contentious army recruitment reform, divisive religious campaign, among other things.

Under Modi's rule, India became the world's fastest-growing major economy with a growth outlook of 7.6 per cent for the fiscal year 2023-24.

However, dissatisfaction festered on the ground amidst rising unemployment rate, stagnant income, and increasing food prices.

Modi rose to power in 2014 with the promise of creating millions of jobs a year, but has been unable to meet the goal, despite its growing economy.

Reuters described India's economic growth as one where wealth is only directed to the richest one per cent of India's population.

The unemployment rate in India increased to 8.1 per cent in April 2024 compared with around 6 per cent before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Religious-tinged campaign

Modi's agenda, described by some as favouring the majority Hindu population, also landed him in hot water during the GE election campaign.

In January this year, Modi inaugurated a Hindu temple in the city of Ayodhya, which appealed to his nationalist supporters, but was also perceived to be "contentious".

The temple was built on a ground that was disputed by the Hindu and Muslim communities over many years.

The site used to be home to a mosque dating from 1528, but also the spot which many Hindus believe to be where the Hindu god Ram was born, Reuters reported.

The BJP in 1990 launched a nationwide campaign to build the temple at the site, which raised their national profile.

The mosque was razed in 1992 by radical Hindu groups, creating a rift between the communities, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, in April, Modi was accused of making Islamophobic remarks during an election rally, provoking the ire of the Muslim community and members of the opposition, CNN reported.

Among other things, Modi has referred to the Muslim community as "infiltrators" who they will have to compete with over resources.

"Historic feat in India's history"

Commenters observed that the election results mean Modi would have to depend more on his allies for support, and to urgently address the issues of unemployment, inflation, and rising inequality.

Outwardly at least, Modi appears calm.

In a Facebook post dated Jun. 5, Modi described NDA's victory as historic.

"People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historic feat in India’s history," Modi wrote.

"We will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people."

Top image via Narendra Modi/Facebook

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