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On May 14, an Asian country whose name begins with T, bordering a conflict zone, held a major general election, whose outcome could significantly impact the lives of Singaporeans, the global economic outlook, and the outcome of said conflict.
And it wasn't Thailand.
Turkey
Turkey held its presidential and parliamentary elections simultaneously on May 14, in what might be Europe's most important election in 2023.
The contest has centered on one man and the effort to unseat him, the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Incumbent
Erdogan has led Turkey for nearly two decades, first as prime minister, then as president.
He is a conservative, nationalist politician, and has over the years gained a reputation as an anti-western, anti-secularist figure.
According to the BBC, although he has said that he is not an Islamist, he has certainly taken actions that seem to stand apart from the secularist traditions that Turkey's founder Kemal Ataturk espoused.
Although Turkey has been a founding member of the anti-communist NATO, under Erdogan, Turkey has drawn closer to Russia.
The height of this was probably illustrated by Turkey being forced out of the F 35 fighter program because it had purchased S400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia, despite repeated warnings by the United States that they considered such a purchase unacceptable.
There was significant concern in the West over how Erdogan would react after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, but by most measures, Turkey has tried to strike a balance, according to Foreign Policy magazine.
It has largely maintained its obligations as a regional power, limiting access to the Black Sea, as it is obliged to, but also portraying itself as an avenue for peace talks.
Turkey has also served to facilitate the grain deal that allows civilian ships to export Ukrainian grain unharmed through the Black Sea and the Bosphorus strait.
But Turkish private companies have also continued to supply the Ukrainian war effort, notably by supplying the Bayraktar drone to Ukraine.
Challenger
Erdogan's divisiveness has given him a dubious accomplishment: he has unified Turkey's opposition behind a single figure, that of Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
An accountant and bureaucrat, he is perhaps a surprising figure to take on the political titan that is Erdogan.
According to Al Jazeera, he has unified several of Turkey's opposition under what is known as the "Table of Six" coalition.
Promising to restore parliamentary democracy and end "one man rule", Kilicdaroglu vowed to counter what has been seen as Erdogan's expansion of presidential power.
Results
But as the results of May 14 were counted, it is clear that the opposition in Turkey have failed to oust Erdogan, with Kilicdaroglu gaining 44.5 per cent of the vote to Erdogan's 49.5 per cent, according to the Guardian.
However, the opposition have managed to force Erdogan's vote under 50%, which is necessary to declare victory outright. This means that the election will go to a head-to-head second round, likely to be held by the end of May.
This gives the opposition a second chance to replace Erdogan, even if it may be an uphill task.
Preliminary results from the simultaneously held parliamentary elections have Erdogan's Truth and Justice Party have nearly half of the the overall vote.
The opposition on the other hand have just over 35 per cent.
How might this affect Singapore?
Because of how important a player Turkey is in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is a potential of the election being a critical factor in bringing the war to an end.
As has been noted, Erdogan's government has been somewhat intransigent when it comes to the West and NATO, and the opposition has signalled some willingness to reverse that.
The most visible sign of this is Kilicdaroglu saying that he would remove Turkey's veto on Sweden joining NATO if he became president.
But an op-ed published by Bloomberg warns not to expect too much change in terms of foreign policy, regardless of who ultimately wins in Turkey.
However, the signs seem to point towards a focus on a domestic agenda in upcoming years for Turkey's government.
Either party winning will likely see a focus on the domestic economy, especially in the wake of the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria in February 2023.
But as has been mentioned, Turkey has played a central role in both limiting the scope of the conflict in Ukraine and in attempts to facilitate a negotiated end to the fighting.
Any change in Turkey's approach after the election will likely have an impact on the war, that already plays a central part in increasing energy and food prices globally.
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Top image via Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu/Facebook & Recep Tayyip Erdoğan/Facebook