On Jun. 30, France conducted the first of its two round parliamentary elections.

It saw the largest turnout in decades, and France's far-right parties are projected to take the most first round votes.

The right rallies

France 24 reported that the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen was projected to win 33 per cent vote share in the first round of the parliamentary election.

The centrist Together coalition of France's president Emmanuel Macron was reduced to third place with just 20 per cent.

Coming in second place with 28 per cent was the alliance of left-wing parties New Popular Front.

Based on exit polling quoted by France 24, the National Rally was expected to win between 230 and 280 seats, while needing 289 seats for an absolute majority.

However, other polls had the party winning up to 310 seats.

But the ultimate makeup of the parliament is difficult to predict.

The French electoral system is not as straightforward as United Kingdom style first-past-the-post (which is what Singapore uses), or proportional representation (a version of which is used in Australia).

The French elections for the National Assembly, its parliament, use a two round system, similar to how France conducts its presidential elections.

Two rounds

On Jul. 7, the French will vote again, and that result will determine which party ultimately forms its government.

After the first round on Jun. 30, candidates who fail to get more than 12.5 per cent of the vote are eliminated.

In seats where no candidate won outright, the remaining candidates will vie against each other on Jul. 7, where the candidate with the most votes will win the seat, regardless of whether they achieve a majority or not.

Some pundits are predicting, aided by polling, that the National Rally might be able to win an outright majority, and will become the first far-right party to take power since the Vichy regime that ruled France during the Second World War.

It was aided in this effort with the largest voter turnout for a parliamentary election in decades, with over 60 per cent turning out to vote, significantly up from 40 per cent during the last election in 2022.

Political pundits have suggested that France's electoral system favours the National Rally in case of high turnout, something that has borne out in this case.

Cavaliers (that's French for horsemen)

French parties are now in the midst of a massive round of “horse trading”, trying to convince each other's candidates to drop out of the second round.

It is currently estimated that over 300 seats out of the National Assembly’s 577 seats are facing second round elections with three or more candidates.

Already the centrist and left wing parties are suggesting that whichever party came in third place in any particular constituency should drop out, in order to give the best chance of preventing a National Rally candidate from winning.

RFI reports that the incumbent Prime Minister Gabriel Attal from Macron's party, and the leader of the hard left Jean-Luc Melenchon, have declared "not a single vote for the National Rally".

But even despite such informal alliances, the expectation is that the National Rally will form the new government. Its 28 year-old president Jordan Bardella, the successor of Marine Le Pen, will be the next prime minister.

Le Pen has run for president thrice, getting to the second round twice.

She is the daughter of far-right politician Jean-Marie Le Pen but has, relative to him, moderated her position.

However, she is still stridently nationalist and wants to limit French participation in both the European Union and NATO, and has made pro-Putin comments in the past, although the NR have recently sought to reassure other Europeans of their commitment to Ukraine's defence against Russia's invasion.

Bardella would also be the youngest person to become French PM, and would take over from Attal, who is currently the youngest French PM.

Splittist

The most likely result appears to be a split government, with centrist Macron as president presiding over a far-right government.

Macron’s calling a snap election surprised many throughout Europe, but Reuters reports that market analysts considered Sunday’s result to be a “relief”, due the results being broadly in line with predictions.

The ultimate result will depend on whether the French political left and centre can once again consolidate to stop, or at least limit, a far-right victory, as it did in 2017 and 2022, when Macron was elected as president.

Related story

Top image via Emmanuel Macron/Facebook, Gabriel Attal/Facebook, Jordan Bardella/Facebook, & Marine Le Pen/Facebook,