In front of a packed Shangri-La Dialogue audience, President of the Philippines Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr advocated the involvement of global partners in ensuring peace in the South China Sea, and said that the death of any Filipino citizen due to a "wilful act" is "very, very close to" what the Philippines would consider an "act of war."
However, he noted that thankfully, there have not been any such deaths so far.
Questions, and answers
Marcos Jr took part in a brief question and answer session after delivering the opening speech of the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue.
The speech was a robust defence of Asean centrality, as well as a call for international cooperation to maintain peace in the Indo-Pacific region.
The first question came from People's Liberation Army general Xu Hui, who referenced the importance that Marcos Jr’s speech had placed upon the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation signed by the founding members of Asean, including his own father Ferdinand Marcos.
Xu, praised the role of Asean centrality, and the Asean way, which he described as: “mutual respect, consensus building, and being considerate of other parties' comfort levels”.
He described it in his own words as three no's: “no intervention, no use of force, no hyping up hotspots”.
Xu said that Asean, and East Asia at large, owed its long-lasting peace to adherence to these principles, saying that he agreed with Kishore Mahbubani, the Singaporean professor who once said that Asean deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for its achievements.
However, Xu then added:
“President, in the eyes of the international community, some of the Philippines behaviour in recent times does not sound like you have really considered other people's comfort levels.
And there is a risk of ruining the region's long-earned, long-lasting peace since the end of colonial history. What [are] your comments on that?”
No such thing as a regional issue
Marcos Jr replied, "I cannot imagine what you must be referring to if the reference or the allusion was to the Philippines.”
He rejected the accusation that the Philippines had gone against the Asean way, and referred to his keynote address, where he focused on Asean centrality.
Asean, he said, was an organisation for nations with many common interests to build multilateral partnerships that could “help each other and help the region”.
The Philippines, Marcos Jr said, remained true to those principles, but the global situation is far more complicated now than it was before.
"I would even go so far as to say there is no such thing as a regional issue any longer," he said.
Global effects of regional conflicts
Marcos Jr then elaborated, taking the example of the war in Ukraine or the conflict in the Middle East, whose effects were unexpectedly global.
He did not mention what those effects were, but was likely referencing the increased cost of grain or fertilisers due to the Ukraine conflict, or the protests and shipping interference in the Red Sea due to the conflict in Gaza.
It was in this context that Marcos Jr reminded the audience that the South China Sea is the passageway for half of the world's trade.
Therefore, the peace and stability of the South China Sea, and the freedom of navigation through it is a "world issue", Marcos Jr said.
“Yes, it is a regional issue but we must examine, and be part of the discussion, include all parties in the discussion now because it is not just Asean member states who are stakeholders.
It is quite easy to see that it is in fact, the entire world has become stakeholders in the peace and stability of our region.”
Red lines
Marcos Jr was also asked by a member of the Irish delegation if Chinese coast guard water cannons were to kill a Filipino sailor, whether that would cross a red line, and what type of action would "trigger a request from Manila to Washington" to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty.
The man who asked the question was likely referencing ongoing disputes in the South China Sea, particularly those in and around the Scarborough Shoal, which often resulted in Philippines vessels being targeted by Chinese Coast Guard ships with water cannons.
While there has been damage and injuries, to date, there had yet to be any fatalities.
Marcos Jr replied by saying that any incident that ended up killing a Filipino serviceman or citizen, if it was by a "wilful act", that would be "I think, very, very close" to what the Philippines considered an "act of war".
In such a case, the Philippines would respond appropriately, and he believed the Philippines's treaty partners would hold the same standard.
Marcos Jr expressed his thanks that such an incident had not yet occurred, but he added:
“Once we get to that point, we would have crossed the Rubicon. Is that a red line?
Almost certainly it is going to be a red line.”
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Top image via The International Institute for Strategic Studies/YouTube