Winning elections is tough, and incumbent Indonesian defence minister Prabowo Subianto would know.
He has taken part in every single democratic presidential election in Indonesia since 2004, in various capacities, and failed in every single one of them.
Until 2024.
If unofficial quick count results prove accurate Prabowo has not only won, but has in fact thumped the opposition with a surprising 58 per cent victory.
He handily outclassed the second placed Anies Baswedan, former governor of Jakarta, who managed 25 per cent, and completely left in the dust the former governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo, who only managed just over 16 per cent.
Election Result of Indonesia 🇮🇩.#02MenangMutlak1PTRN#Pemilu2024
#Imingayo #PDIP #AMINmenang #Elections2024 #IndonesiaElection #QuickCount #Komeng
— Hassan Siddiqui (@Hassandude7) February 14, 2024
So how did he do it?
Dominating the Meta
Let an old gamer explain it to you — he dominated the meta.
The term ‘meta’ is defined by Urban Dictionary as the “Most Effective Tactic Available”.
This backronym happens to be wrong, 'meta; refers to the term “metagame”, but it still serves as a really good explanation.
In most competitive online games, there is an optimal tactic that will allow you to win most of the time, and the trick to winning is not skill, but figuring out what that tactic is.
In the case of this election, Prabowo might have done the same and gotten three things right: flexibility, connections, and youth.
A history of violence
Prabowo is a bit of a political shape-shifter, and has changed his persona over the span of 30 or 40 years to try to catch a political wave.
In the '80s and the '90s, he was considered by some, as told by Foreign Affairs, to be a natural successor for Indonesian strongman Suharto.
Coming from a prominent Indonesian family of means, a military leader of elite military units Kopassus and Kostrad, Prabowo also married Suharto's daughter; and thus was perfectly placed in a Suharto government.
But after the fall of Suharto in 1998, the new Indonesia rejected Prabowo, firing him from the army over alleged human rights violations, including the kidnapping of pro-democracy activists.
He has never fully been taken to task over the allegations, even admitting to “legal-at-the-time” actions in an Al Jazeera interview in 2014.
Prabowo set his sights on becoming president in the new Indonesia, beginning in 2004 by trying to win Suharto’s political party Golkar’s presidential nomination, then in 2009 as Megawati Sukarnoputri’s vice president, failing both times.
His next two attempts in 2014 and 2019 were straight up contests between him and Joko "Jokowi" Widodo.
Jokowi was seen as a young, visionary figure, often compared to the likes of the United States' Barack Obama.
Prabowo styled himself in opposition to that, backed by a coalition of more conservative religious parties, a coalition similar to that of 2024’s Anies Baswedan.
Anies cast himself as the change candidate, for those who were dissatisfied with the past 10 years of Jokowi's reign, a mantle that Prabowo could have taken up if he wanted.
So why didn’t he?
Shapeshift
After the 2019 election, much like in 2014, Prabowo initially refused to accept the result, with thousands of supporters taking to the streets in protest, resulting in some deaths.
But rather than shunning Prabowo, Jokowi decided to bring him into the fold, in what was at the time compared to a Godfather-esque “keep your friends close, but your enemies closer”, type of move.
Jokowi not only offered Prabowo a position in the cabinet, he offered him the prized role of minister of defence.
By most reckonings, Prabowo has served ably in the role, barring the occasional off-the-reservation moment, such as when he independently proposed a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, at the 2023 IISS Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore, without consulting Jokowi's government first.
During the presidential campaign, Prabowo decided to completely embrace the achievements of the Jokowi era, casting himself as the continuity candidate: If you want Jokowi's policies to continue, then choose Prabowo.
He also recast himself from a hard-nosed military man, to an all-singing, all-dancing, (maybe no singing) "cuddly" grandfather, as described by the BBC, much to the chagrin of his detractors.
The term used is "gemoy", Indonesian slang for “cute” or "cuddly". My Indonesian friend swears is not equivalent to the Japanese “kawaii”, but I cannot find any meaningful difference.
It is the term that has been given to Prabowo, dancing "joget" on stage or in the form of a CGI cartoon, taken straight from his own political party’s social media.
He has also acted as a democratic leader should, showering praise on his opponents, as he did in the final debate of the presidential election; as well as emphasising how he will be a leader for all Indonesians in his victory speech.
However, it is arguably easier to be magnanimous in victory than in defeat.
The son of the father
Jokowi, for his part, did not explicitly endorse Prabowo, or anyone else; but it was hard not to draw the connection when they periodically met in public, at least once for a meal, or when Jokowi's son became Prabowo's running mate.
Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi's 36-year-old son was selected.
And in a country that understands the concept of “political dynasty” but is perhaps not turned off by it, what greater "endorsement" could there be than having one's eldest son serve as the deputy of one's former rival?
Meanwhile, his opponents tried to distance themselves from Jokowi while still building a connection.
Ganjar’s vice presidential candidate was Mahfud MD, Jokowi’s Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs.
Mahfud resigned to avoid any possible conflicts of interest, but he was likely chosen due to his experience in Jokowi’s cabinet.
Jokowi’s former deputy in Jakarta, Ahok, also resigned from a state-linked company to campaign for Ganjar; likely a subtle dig at how close some campaigns were to his former mentor.
Prabowo did no such thing and actively campaigned while performing his national duties. This caused some confusion, not least amongst government-run social media accounts.
Prabowo even came to Singapore just after he formally declared as a candidate, and was conferred Singapore's highest military award in his capacity as Indonesia's defence minister.
But these things may have muddied the waters a little bit, but nothing as much as how his running mate qualified.
The selection of Gibran
Under Indonesian law a person cannot run for president or vice president unless they are above the age of 40, but Gibran is 36.
But the constitutional court ruled that Gibran's two years as mayor of the city of Surakarta was enough executive experience to qualify him.
Almost immediately afterwards the head of the constitutional court was demoted and admonished for that ruling, because of a "serious ethical violation" for failing to recuse himself.
The head of the electoral commission, the KPU, was also given a final stern warning for not consulting the Indonesian legislatures before allowing Gibran to qualify as a candidate.
None of this appears to have hurt his popularity at all.
All these three events occurred after Gibran was declared as Prabowo’s running mate, and Prabowo saw his popularity surge from the low 40th percentile to nearly 55 percent, eventually winning the election at 58 per cent.
Young hearts
One explanation for this is that Indonesia is a young nation, with most of the electorate under the age of 40.
The electorate is more worried about bread-and-butter issues such as economic prospects, than the technicalities of allowing popular politicians to run for office, important though those technicalities might be.
Jokowi has an over 80 per cent approval rate, with most voters feeling that he has kept his economic promises for the most part and want his policies to continue.
Prabowo tying his flag to Jokowi’s mast is a calculated appeal to those voters, and all the accusations have done appears to have been to tighten the knot.
The election tied the contests’ oldest candidate to its youngest, and Prabowo, to be fair, was not too proud to flaunt the connection.
When they appeared together, they dressed alike, and it was Prabowo who more often than not, took his clothing cues from Gibran, which meant hoodies and occasionally sneakers.
He wasn’t the only candidate to do it, but he’s also 72 years old. It was a choice.
His campaign also targeted a younger demographic, engaging more vigorously with social media, especially TikTok, than his opponents.
Coordinator of the Indonesia Program at NTU’s Rajaratnam School of International Relations Leonard Sebastian noted that Anies and Ganjar campaigned more traditionally, with rallies and face to face encounters.
@mothershipsg The use of social media may prove pivotal in shaping Indonesia's Feb. 14 presidential election. But how influential is it, really? We asked Dr Leonard Sebastian of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies to weigh in. #indonesia🇮🇩 #indonesiaelection2024 #tiktokindonesia ♬ original sound - Mothership
Prabowo and Gibran preferred social media and TikTok, allowing them to reach out to a population who may not ordinarily head to rallies.
But it also allowed them to circumvent difficult questions that might be asked at such events, such as Prabowo’s human rights record, or Gibran’s ties to his father.
The shape of things to come
It is also notable that in the past 18 months, Southeast Asia has had three “TikTok” elections.
Elections in Cambodia had… some issues, but in Malaysia (2022), Thailand (2023), and now in Indonesia, youth-centric approaches have largely succeeded.
In Malaysia, the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, with waves of new voters entering the rolls.
Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) aggressively targeted younger voters through TikTok and was rewarded for its efforts with the most seats in parliament, even if they were unable to form the government.
Similarly, Thailand's Move Forward Party also ran campaigns targeting younger voters, centring around social media and TikTok.
For its efforts it also became the largest party in Thailand's parliament, much to the surprise of many observers.
However, it too failed to form the government, being stymied by more conservative forces. However, it came really close, managing more than enough support in the lower house.
Indonesia's election has been shaped by similar forces, and has returned a positive result for Prabowo.
But now that he is in power, he will no longer need to comport himself to either opponents or allies in order to shape his own identity.
The destiny of Southeast Asia's largest power will now be in his hands, and the identity that he constructs around it.
RSIS's Leonard Sebastian notes that Prabowo is a known quantity for many in Singapore and in the region, and does not expect a significantly different approach to foreign affairs.
But Prabowo’s ability to shape domestic events will still have a significant impact on the region as a whole.
He has figured out the electoral meta, which has allowed him to dominate the electoral contest.
Now he has to figure out the governing meta.
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Top image via Prabowo Subianto/Facebook