U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy pulled out all the stops to avoid a costly — both in terms of finance and politics — shutdown of the U.S. government.
But that narrow escape may just cost him the Speakership, with fellow Republican congressmen reportedly making moves to oust him from one of the highest profile roles in U.S. politics.
How does the US government get funded?
The legislative branch of the U.S. government, including the House of Representatives and the Senate, is responsible for crafting and passing a spending bill every fiscal year, following the president's budget request in February.
There are certain mandatory expenditures, such as funding for Medicare and Social Security, and discretionary expenditure, which is whatever the president would like. The members of Congress (House and Senate) then get to work proposing amendments to the spending plans, and voting on them.
There is no official deadline, but the budget should be passed before the fiscal year begins on Oct. 1. If lawmakers and the president cannot agree on a budget before then, the federal government does not have authority to spend money and a shutdown is triggered.
What's a government shutdown?
If a shutdown occurs, federal agencies must stop all non-essential activities. For example, national parks, which are under the remit of the federal government, will officially close and prevent visitors from entering.
Non-essential government employees will be told not to go to work. However, employees that are deemed essential, such as air traffic controllers at airports, are exempted.
Active duty and reserve military personnel remain at their posts, but are forced to work without pay. Civilian employees of the military will also be told to stay at home.
According to the Brookings Institute:
"Shutdowns can be disruptive, leading to delays in processing applications for passports, small business loans, or government benefits; shuttered visitor centers and bathrooms at national parks; fewer food-safety inspections; and various inconveniences."
The government has shut down several times in the past, often when control of Congress and the White House are in the hands of different parties. A president may clash with Congress over spending plans, leading to a stand-off and no budget passed.
Shutdowns occurred in 2018, when Republican President Donald Trump went against Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi over funding for his proposed border wall, and in 2013, when Democratic President Barack Obama faced off with Republican Speaker John Boehner over defunding Obamacare.
It was estimated that the most recent shutdown cost the U.S. economy US$11 billion (S$15.1 billion).
So what happened this time?
The moment that Republicans seized control of the House of Representatives (though not the Senate) in the Nov. 2022 midterm elections, a clash with Democratic President Joe Biden seemed inevitable.
The new Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, faced some rebellion within his own party, and was only voted as Speaker, usually regarded as a procedural formality, after 15 tries.
In order to win the necessary support, McCarthy gave away enormous concessions to members of his own party, including the ability to trigger a vote on his own speakership by just one member of the House. This detail will be important later.
Road to shutdown
In Aug. 2023, hardline Republicans revealed a list of their demands before they would sign on to any spending bill to keep the government open. Deep spending cuts, opposing financial aid for Ukraine as it struggles to beat back a Russian invasion, restrictions on refugees, and other demands that were complete anathema to Biden and his party.
Meanwhile, the Democrat-controlled Senate proposed their own spending bill, including funding both for aid to Ukraine and disaster relief, a pertinent issue after fires in Hawaii and floods in New York City. This was of course rejected by the Republican-controlled House.
As the deadline crept closer, and with no compromise in sight, a shutdown appeared all but certain.
Shutdown averted - with Democratic support
But late in the night on Sep. 30 (U.S. time), Congress unexpectedly passed a spending bill. It would fund government for another 45 days, as well as providing funds for disaster relief. However, it did not include aid for Ukraine, and it was not a full budget, merely buying the government more time to come to an agreement further down the line.
However, the most significant detail, at least from a political standpoint? McCarthy could not cobble together enough votes from his own party. He had to rely on his political opponents, the Democratic party, to pass the bill.
With just hours to spare, almost every House Democrat voted for McCarthy's bill, with as many as 90 Republicans voting against it. But it was enough to pass the bill 335 to 91, and send it up for Biden's signature.
Rage against McCarthy
The recriminations began with hardline members of McCarthy's party blasting him for making a deal with the Democrats.
Representative Andy Biggs of Arizona asked his X (formerly Twitter) followers if McCarthy should remain as Speaker.
Instead of siding with his own party today, Kevin McCarthy sided with 209 Democrats to push through a continuing resolution that maintains the Biden-Pelosi-Schumer spending levels and policies.
He allowed the DC Uniparty to win again.
Should he remain Speaker of the House?
— Rep Andy Biggs (@RepAndyBiggsAZ) September 30, 2023
Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida went a step further.
On Oct. 3 (Singapore time), Gaetz filed a motion to vacate McCarthy's position as Speaker.
If this motion is brought before the House for a vote, a simple majority is all it takes to bring McCarthy down.
And while McCarthy could again turn to his ostensible opponents, the Democrats, for help, some have expressed scepticism about saving McCarthy's skin if he does not make concessions in turn.
"I am not a cheap date," said Representative James McGovern of Massachusetts, as quoted by the New York Times.
If McCarthy is kicked out, and someone more belligerent takes his place, another government shutdown looks all but assured once the 45-day bill runs out.
Top image from Kevin McCarthy's Facebook page.