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Minister for Home Affairs and Law K Shanmugam spoke at the Middle East Institute's (MEI) annual conference on May 31, giving his take on the significant changes taking place in the Middle East.
Shanmugam, who previously served as Foreign Affairs Minister, took part in a dialogue session titled the Middle East and the Return of Great Power Competition, with MEI's chairman Bilahari Kausikan, himself a former Permanent Secretary of Foreign Affairs.
The session, an unscripted back and forth between the two, was a wide ranging look at the various challenges faced by the region, its position between great powers, and the economic and social changes it faces.
Economic and social change in the Middle East
Shanmugam brought up the significant economic changes experienced by the countries of the Middle East, and the social and cultural changes that naturally came along with it.
Middle Eastern countries had recognised the need to diversify their economies away from fossil fuels, Shanmugam noted. In addition, there were societal changes that he described as “revolutionary”, such as women being allowed to work.
The minister related his experience of meeting a member of staff in the Singaporean embassy in Saudi Arabia, who had a double Masters, but as a woman was not allowed to work in the country until 2022.
It was an example of the country effectively doubling its economy by adding “a whole new segment of a highly educated workforce”.
Will the Arab people accept such changes, or feel that the leadership is moving too quickly?
Shanmugam said the challenge was seeing if the "Arab Street", the countries’ populations at large, would accept such changes, or if they thought the leadership was moving too quickly.
Shanmugam said that the population of Saudi Arabia was young, and not only did they accept the changes, they were pushing for more. But this had consequences for the countries, raising questions such as:
"The question, in many people's minds, particularly the conservative, is – how do you modernise, how do you embrace modernity, how do you get into science and technology without losing your fundamental values?
Your values in religion, your values in faith – how do you marry the two? I think those are challenges that every country around the world faces."
Impact on other regions
Shanmugam also spoke about the impact of this development on Singapore and Southeast Asia, at Bilahari's prompting.
He said:
"Events there, the interpretations of religion, interpretations of how you interact with the different faiths, should have an impact on us, but I also see difficulties.
Because, in some parts of this region, religion – and it's not just Islam – Buddhism, as well as Christianity and Hinduism – and I talk about the region in a broader sense – have been subject to politicisation."
Shanmugam said religion has become "part of the tools that is employed in politics", and added:
"... certain ways of practising the faith, certain historical interpretations of the faith, and certain ways of identifying yourself as part of the faith and being exclusive and being different from others, are being pushed by politicians."
Because of this, Shanmugam felt that the changes taking place in the Middle East should logically impact what is going on in Southeast Asia, but "the reality is - that doesn't suit a variety of political actors".
"And therefore, the jury is out," he added.
Great power geopolitics and regional agency
The pair also spoke about the confluence of great power geopolitics and agency of the Middle Eastern powers.
Bilahari compared the current situation of the United States in the Middle East to that of the aftermath of the Vietnam War.
Afterwards, the U.S. shifted from a period of direct intervention in affairs to that of an offshore balancer. In the Middle East today, they seem to be undergoing a similar transition.
Bilahari characterised the U.S. as “unreliable”, but “indispensable” in the Middle East, in that they remained a critical provider of security in the region, whether through the Fifth fleet, or U.S. Air Force assets station in Qatar and the UAE.
Shanmugam said countries who thought that way would start “hedging” their bets.
Countries other than great powers have agency to act in their own interests
Shanmugam also emphasised the agency that countries in the region had, engaging in different sorts of multilateral arrangements.
He compared Asean to the Gulf Cooperation Council, saying that both organisations gave a platform for the countries in the region “manage themselves, talk about issues, and give a platform for the bigger powers to come and deal with (them)”.
Shanmugam also, earlier in the dialogue, gave an example of such regional agency.
Oman played a pivotal role in the recent deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, that had been signed in China.
The minister acknowledged the important role that China had played, but said that the significant, but quiet, role that Oman played behind the scenes should not be forgotten.
Palestine, Israel, Iran
Shanmugam also spoke about the Palestinian issue to wrap up the session, elaborating on Singapore’s position:
“(Singapore has) always supported, firmly, a two-state solution. And we have never supported, at the same time, any resolution that questions Israel's right to exist – but within that framework, we have said, there's got to be a two-state solution.”
The Palestinian issue had dropped off the “top line” (of news), but had the potential to “explode very quickly among the Arab Street”.
“And I think Arab leadership will be very aware and wary of that issue. So real security and peace, I think, can only come when a sensible and honourable solution is found for the Palestinian issue," Shanmugam said.
But the situation where “women and children are getting killed on both sides” risked seeing passions inflamed.
Shanmugam said, "Often Israel bears the brunt of the negative public opinion in such situations. You know, whether it is misimpressions being created, or whether it is disproportionate, or whether it is propaganda. The question is, what is the bottom-line impact?"
He said that among many people of his age, Israel is seen as an "underdog" and a "shining star", while today many in the middle ground would be tempted to see Israel as being aggressive or overly aggressive.
"That's unfortunate for Israel, I think. The Palestinian situation – Israel did try to resolve it. You know, there are many actors who have to take responsibility for the issue not being resolved, including an assassination in Israel, but the situation is as it is. I worry about the Palestine situation."
Shanmugam also touched on Iran, and its recent moves in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, commenting that it appears the instability in the region has given Iran "greater agency", ironically due to America's intervention in Iraq.
Top image via MEI-NUS